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GBP

24 Nov 2024

US economy still powering along

• Macro trends. PMIs showed US economy is outperforming. Yield spreads support the USD. EUR slipped below ~$1.04 for first time since Q4 ’22.• AUD holding. AUD bucked the trend. Relative strength on the crosses helped the AUD nudge up. We think these dynamics can continue.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). US PCE & EZ CPI also due. Relative strength of the US economy over its peers was on show again on Friday in the latest business PMI data. PMIs are leading indicators for growth, employment,...

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21 Nov 2024

Glass half full

• Holding on. Despite Russia/Ukraine developments a ‘risk on’ vibe prevailed in markets. Equities higher, oil rose, & the AUD ticked up.• European struggles. EUR & GBP weaker. Steady stream of ECB rate cuts anticipated as Eurozone economy navigates downside risks.• AUD trends. AUD outperforms on the crosses. We think this can continue given diverging policy trends between the RBA & others. Geopolitical risks intensified overnight after Russia launched a ‘new’ kind of ballistic missile for the first time in its war with Ukraine, a clear signal to the Western world that it is unlikely to take recent provocations lying...

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20 Nov 2024

Geopolitical jitters

• Market jitters. Geopolitics & ‘hawkish’ macro signals dampened sentiment & supported the USD overnight. AUD unwound yesterday’s uptick.• USD trends. The pricing in & enacting of the Trump policy agenda, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, is a recipe for lingering USD strength.• Central banks. Odds of another near-term rate cut by the BoE & US Fed were pared back. Markets only fully discounting a RBA move by July. A few market jitters returned overnight with the rebound in risk sentiment late in the previous days trade fading. Concerns about an escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict is a factor keeping traders...

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20 Nov 2024

Geopolitical Concerns Ebb, Markets Rewind

Financial markets are recovering from yesterday’s knee-jerk geopolitical selloff, with the dollar snapping out of a three-day losing streak, Treasury yields marching higher, and North American equity benchmarks setting up for a positive open. Oil prices are slumping on a dissipation in risk premia after Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said his country was ready to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine with US President-elect Donald Trump, and safe-haven currencies are giving back their gains. Yield differentials continue to move in the dollar’s favour as traders pull back on expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the earliest year-ahead outlooks...

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19 Nov 2024

From Russia, with love

• Geopolitics. A burst of volatility on the back of Russia/Ukraine news. But sentiment rebounded. US equities rose, as did the NZD & AUD.• Data flow. UK CPI & EZ wages due tonight. Several ECB & US Fed members also speaking. Geopolitics will also be on the radar.• AUD trends. AUD outperforming on the crosses. We think this can continue given the diverging policy trends between the RBA & others. Geopolitics generated a burst of volatility overnight. News Ukraine had carried out its first strike just over the Russian border using Western supplied missiles, and reports President Putin had signed...

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