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GBP

21 Jun 2023

Another BoE rate hike expected

• Mixed markets. Equities lower. US yields little changed but European yields rose. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 2 more hikes is a “pretty good guess”.• Hot UK inflation. UK core inflation at its highest since 1992. Bank of England set to hike again tonight. The debate is on the size of the move.• AUD mixed. AUD hovering near ~$0.68. AUD has lost ground against the EUR & JPY over the past few days. External headwinds still in place for the AUD. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight. Equities were a bit weaker, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (S&P500 & EuroStoxx50...

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21 Jun 2023

Markets retreat ahead of Powell testimony

In a return to the “good news is bad news” dynamic that drove price action through the post-global financial crisis years, markets are back in risk-off mode this morning. Data out yesterday showed US housing starts jumped in May by the most since 2016, providing more evidence of underlying resilience in the world’s largest economy – while also making additional rate hikes more likely. The dollar is higher, yields are flat, and commodity-linked currencies are down across the board. Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a hawkish message when he appears in front of the House Financial Services Committee this morning. Last week’s “dot...

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20 Jun 2023

Risk assets pause for breath as Fed pushback becomes more likely

Markets are turning more cautious after last week’s “melt-up” in risk assets, with the dollar climbing against its rivals, Treasury yields ticking higher, and equity markets beating a slow retreat. The British pound is holding near to a ten-month high against the euro and a 14-month peak against the dollar, supported by rising rate expectations. Following strong labour market and wage growth data, the latest inflation print, out tomorrow morning, is expected to show headline price growth easing only slightly in the the month of May, and the core measure is seen holding close to 6.8 percent in year-over-year terms. In response,...

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19 Jun 2023

Shaky sentiment

• Negative vibes. US on holiday, but European equities dipped & bond yields rose. Hawkish central bank rhetoric was a factor.• China stimulus. Lack of an announcement by China on a stimulus package also weighed on sentiment. We think markets are too ‘bulled up’ about China stimulus.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. RBA meeting minutes released today. RBA’s Kent & Bullock also due to speak. With the US on holiday it was a relatively quiet night for markets, though risk appetite has been softer across those that were open. European equities dipped (EuroStoxx600 -1%), oil prices...

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18 Jun 2023

Lofty heights

• Policy divergence. JPY continues to weaken with the BoJ’s stance continuing to diverge from the rest of the world. AUD near a multi-month high.• Fed talk. Chair Powell testifies to Congress this week. Markets still aren’t pricing in the Fed’s views. A shift up could give the USD some support.• China stimulus. More stimulus to support the faltering recovery is anticipated, but we think China may not meet the markets seemingly lofty thinking. US markets had a relatively quiet end to a busy week on Friday. US equities retreated from their 14-month highs (S&P500 -0.4%), while bond yields increased...

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