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Markets Steady As Event Risks Loom

Currency traders are treading cautiously after Donald Trump raised taxes on steel and aluminum imports into the United States, and price action is slowing ahead of this morning’s testimony from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and tomorrow’s inflation update. North American equity futures are setting up for a negative open, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is up roughly 2 basis points, and the dollar is consolidating gains achieved in the run-up to last night’s tariff announcement. President Trump signed two executive orders last night imposing 25-percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum products, saying “It’s a big deal. This is...

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Signal versus noise

• Holding on. Yesterdays tariff headlines didn’t trigger a lasting market impact. Equities pushed higher, bond yields consolidated, & AUD rebounded.• Macro impulses. In addition to tariff news markets will be focused on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony tonight. US Fed looks to be in no rush to cut again.• Tariff news. AUD outperformed overnight. There are indirect headwinds but AU’s export basket looks rather tariff-insulated. US runs a trade surplus with AU. Global Trends Markets look to have taken the latest US trade tariff news in their stride. As outlined yesterday, the US is reportedly set to impose 25% tariffs...

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Markets Look Through Renewed Tariff Threats

The dollar is up modestly against its major rivals after Donald Trump verbally threatened to increase tariffs for the third weekend in a row. In a press briefing conducted on Air Force One ahead of yesterday’s Super Bowl, the president told reporters that he would unveil new reciprocal tariffs—levies designed to match foreign protectionist measures—in the coming days, and will impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum products from all US trading partners today. Reciprocal tariffs—which are designed to match protectionist measures in other countries—are generally well supported on both sides of the aisle, and are not terribly impactful...

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Tariff related market wobbles

• Market swings. Mix of solid US data & tariff news weighed on equities, pushed up bond yields, & supported the USD. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• Volatility. More US tariff announcements likely. This can generate volatility. Push-pull forces still at play. Further headline driven swings anticipated.• Event Radar. In addition to US tariff news markets will be focused on US CPI, US retail sales, & Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional Testimony this week. Global Trends Some renewed pressure on equity and bond markets emerged on Friday night. The US S&P500 slipped back ~1% with the tech-sector underperforming (NASDAQ -1.4%)....

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Positive Jobs Reports Bolster Risk Appetite

The US job creation engine slowed in January, but revisions to November and December numbers illustrated continued strength in labour markets, helping keep the Federal Reserve firmly sidelined. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 143,000 jobs were added in the month—undershooting the 175,000-position consensus forecast—but December’s headline print was revised higher to 307,000 from the 256,000 originally estimated, and November’s number jumped to 261,000 from 212,000, lifting the three-month average to 237,000. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1 percent, and average hourly earnings climbed 0.5 percent month-over-month, accelerating from the pace set in the...

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