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EUR

25 Nov 2024

US politics still in the driver’s seat

• US politics. Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick supported sentiment. US equities rose while bond yields fell. USD lost a little ground.• AUD dip. AUD bucked the trend to be back near ~$0.65. Underperformance on the crosses was a factor. We don’t think this should last.• Data flow. Limited releases today. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Australian monthly CPI also due Wednesday. Will it re-accelerate? The market tone has been a bit more upbeat at the start of the new week. News President-elect Trump has nominated experienced hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, a more orthodox choice than...

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25 Nov 2024

Bessent-Driven Relief Rally Boosts Currency Markets

Financial markets are heaving a sigh of relief after president-elect Donald Trump picked Scott Bessent – a relative moderate and someone with a firm grasp of macroeconomics – to lead the Treasury Department. The hedge fund manager and Soros Fund alumni is seen as someone who might steer the incoming administration’s fiscal and trade policies in a more pragmatic direction, reducing the negative effects of an “America First” approach on other economies. The benchmark ten year Treasury yield is down six basis points from Friday’s close, equity futures are setting up for a strong open, and the dollar is down...

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24 Nov 2024

US economy still powering along

• Macro trends. PMIs showed US economy is outperforming. Yield spreads support the USD. EUR slipped below ~$1.04 for first time since Q4 ’22.• AUD holding. AUD bucked the trend. Relative strength on the crosses helped the AUD nudge up. We think these dynamics can continue.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). US PCE & EZ CPI also due. Relative strength of the US economy over its peers was on show again on Friday in the latest business PMI data. PMIs are leading indicators for growth, employment,...

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21 Nov 2024

Glass half full

• Holding on. Despite Russia/Ukraine developments a ‘risk on’ vibe prevailed in markets. Equities higher, oil rose, & the AUD ticked up.• European struggles. EUR & GBP weaker. Steady stream of ECB rate cuts anticipated as Eurozone economy navigates downside risks.• AUD trends. AUD outperforms on the crosses. We think this can continue given diverging policy trends between the RBA & others. Geopolitical risks intensified overnight after Russia launched a ‘new’ kind of ballistic missile for the first time in its war with Ukraine, a clear signal to the Western world that it is unlikely to take recent provocations lying...

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20 Nov 2024

Geopolitical jitters

• Market jitters. Geopolitics & ‘hawkish’ macro signals dampened sentiment & supported the USD overnight. AUD unwound yesterday’s uptick.• USD trends. The pricing in & enacting of the Trump policy agenda, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, is a recipe for lingering USD strength.• Central banks. Odds of another near-term rate cut by the BoE & US Fed were pared back. Markets only fully discounting a RBA move by July. A few market jitters returned overnight with the rebound in risk sentiment late in the previous days trade fading. Concerns about an escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict is a factor keeping traders...

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