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EUR

14 Jan 2025

‘Gradual’ Tariff Plan Relieves Markets

Currency markets are breathing a sigh of relief after a report suggested that the incoming Trump administration could follow a “gradual” trajectory in ratcheting tariffs higher. According to Bloomberg, officials are considering an approach that would entail raising import taxes by 2 to 5 percent a month on major US trading partners, preserving the president-elect’s negotiating leverage while giving the government time to assess the impact on inflation. The greenback is retreating against many of its major peers, with the euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Mexican peso making the biggest advances. Flaws in the concept’s underlying logic suggest that...

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13 Jan 2025

Dollar Juggernaut Gains Momentum

The almighty greenback is trading near a two-year high after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. When measured against a basket of its most widely-traded counterparts, the dollar is at its strongest levels since November 2022, supported by ten-year Treasury yields that are inexorably moving closer to the 5 percent threshold that was last broken in October 2023. Most major currencies are down roughly three quarters of a percentage point from Friday’s open, although the Canadian dollar is outperforming after December’s surprisingly-large gain in jobs, and the British pound is...

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09 Jan 2025

Bond Market Turmoil Eases, Dollar Edges Lower

A multi-day selloff in global bond markets appears to be easing, providing some support to currencies outside the United States. The US ten-year yield is holding near 4.65 percent this morning after breaking through 4.72 percent in yesterday’s session, and rates are easing across most major economies, helping the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar stabilise against the dollar. A series of better-than-expected economic data releases—paired with growing fears surrounding the incoming Trump administration’s impact on inflation—have lifted US yields in recent weeks, widening cross-currency rate differentials even as global borrowing costs have moved higher. With the economy performing well, underlying...

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08 Jan 2025

Tariff and Inflation Worries Kick Yields and the Dollar Higher

Bond yields and the greenback are sitting on substantial gains this morning on the back of a report suggesting that the US could apply universal tariffs on its major trading partners, and after data released yesterday seemed to bolster the case for a slowing in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, triggering a pullback in market bets on rate cuts. The benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is sitting near 4.7 percent—roughly ten basis points above the Monday open—and global rates curves are climbing in sympathy with the US move, with British gilts selling off at the most extreme pace. After having fully...

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07 Jan 2025

Tariff Threat Aftershocks Leave Currency Markets Jittery

Currency markets are suffering a case of whiplash after Donald Trump yesterday denied a report saying that his aides were exploring plans to implement a narrower set of tariffs than had been promised on the campaign trail. The article in the Washington Post, which suggested that the incoming administration would impose selective rather than universal tariffs, triggered a 1-percent drop in the dollar, but was rebutted a little more than three hours later by the president-elect in a Truth Social post in which he called it “fake news”. The greenback ended the day down roughly 0.7 percent as traders adopted...

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