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EUR

Markets Retreat as Threat Environment Worsens

Markets are dressed in red for all the wrong reasons this morning. Most major currencies are down against the dollar on a month- and year-to-date basis as increasingly-hawkish policy expectations intersect with safe-haven demand ahead of a likely shutdown of the US federal government. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near a six-month high at 5.54 percent, North American equity futures are pointing to renewed losses at the open, and many measures of expected volatility remain elevated. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in November, slightly depressing rate expectations for next year. Data released by the Bureau of...

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Central bank divergence

• Calm down. A sense of calm returned overnight. US equities consolidated & the US yield curve steepened. USD held its ground. AUD ticked up a little.• Central banks. BoE kept rates steady but kept door open to more easing. BoJ more ‘dovish’ than expected. GBP & especially JPY underperformed.• Event radar. Japan CPI, US PCE deflator, & appearances by Fed members in focus today. Is too much ‘good news’ priced in the USD? A sense of calm has returned to markets following yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ US Fed induced volatility. US equities consolidated. Though given the size of yesterday’s falls (the...

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Markets in the Fed’s hurt locker

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

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Commodity currencies under the pump

• Commodity FX. AUD, NZD, & CAD under pressure. AUD around levels last traded in November-2023. NZD touched a fresh ~2-year low.• Central banks. US Fed meets tomorrow, as does BoJ & BoE. Another Fed rate cut expected. Focus will be on its guidance & forecasts.• Already priced? Markets already factoring in fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. It could be hard for the Fed to be more ‘hawkish’ than what’s priced. Central bank meetings will be the focus over the next few sessions with the US Fed (Thurs 6am AEDT), Bank of Japan (Thurs, no set time), and Bank...

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US Retail Sales Firm, Canadian Inflation Decelerates

US retail spending climbed slightly more than expected last month, suggesting that resilient consumer demand could continue to power economic outperformance through the all-important holiday season. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in November, beating the 0.6-percent consensus forecasts, and up from a revised 0.5 percent in October. So-called “control group” retail sales sales – with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded – rose by a softer 0.4 percent, matching estimates. The dollar is holding firm, ten-year Treasury...

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