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EUR

29 Jan 2025

Inflation & the AUD

• Central banks. Another rate cut by the BoC & Riksbank, although forward guidance was removed. US Fed kept rates steady & signaled patience.• Modest moves. Mixed performance across equities. Bond yields ticked up. USD tread water. ECB expected to cut rates tonight. US GDP also released.• AU CPI. Core inflation slowed bolstering expectations for a February RBA rate cut. A rates recalibration is looming, but is the low AUD already factoring this in? Global Trends There were few data releases overnight and no new news regarding President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly around tariffs. Rather, central banks were in the...

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29 Jan 2025

Price Action Slows in Run-Up to Rate Decisions

The dollar is advancing against most of its peers and financial markets are broadly holding steady ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. The world’s most powerful central bank is almost-universally expected to stay on hold—and the accompanying statement should remain essentially unchanged—but Chair Jerome Powell’s words in the post-decision press conference will be closely scrutinised for hints as to whether a rate cut could come at the March meeting. Yields have retreated from their recent highs, driven by a modest softening in incoming survey data, market turmoil, relatively-dovish rhetoric from Fed officials, and a rush among investors to top-tick...

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28 Jan 2025

Renewed Tariff Threats Clobber Currency Markets

The dollar is back on the offensive after Donald Trump last night said he favours implementing universal tariffs “much bigger” than 2.5 percent. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, the president appeared to double down on threats against auto manufacturers in Canada and Mexico, and said the US would soon hit pharmaceuticals, chips, semiconductors, steel, copper, and a range of other categories with import taxes. An earlier report from the Financial Times suggested that newly-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supports applying an initial 2.5-percent tariff against all US trading partners, with an increase in the same amount coming...

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27 Jan 2025

Tech tumbles

• Equity pressure. AI news out of China weighed on US tech stocks. The 7 US megacaps have driven the overall market strength the past few years.• Spill-overs. Risk off tone in equities washed through other markets. Bond yields fell as did oil. JPY outperformed while AUD & NZD slipped back a bit.• Event radar. Locally, Q4 CPI in focus this week (Weds). Offshore, the US Fed, Bank of Canada, & ECB meet. Tech stocks also report earnings. Global Trends Some nervousness returned to markets after what had been a relatively more positive period last week. US equities kicked off...

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27 Jan 2025

Dollar Retreat Gains Momentum on Tech Sector Plunge

Futures on US stock markets are tumbling this morning as outsized performance gains from China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence start-up raise uncomfortable questions about the competitive moats surrounding America’s biggest tech firms. According to artificial intelligence experts, a thinly-resourced open-source large language model released by the Chinese company last week shows comparable performance to those built by US firms like OpenAI and Meta, suggesting that the race among Silicon Valley firms to invest tens of billions of dollars in advanced chips may not pay off—at least not for those on the vanguard. DeepSeek’s chatbot topped downloads on Apple’s App Store over...

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