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EUR

04 Jan 2023

Market Briefing: Dollar fades as rebalancing flows gain momentum

Currency market volumes are rebounding as participants return to their desks and position for a reversal of the US exceptionalism trade that dominated throughout 2022. The dollar is weaker against every other major this morning, and yields are softer across the front end of the curve – even as traders brace for relatively-hawkish meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Aussie is a clear outperformer after Chinese authorities began discussing an end to an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. Unconfirmed reports circulated by Bloomberg and Reuters this morning suggest the National Development and Reform Commission...

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03 Jan 2023

Market Briefing: Risk appetites – and the dollar – jump into a new year

Happy new year, and may all our market troubles last as long as our resolutions. Investors are in a relatively ebullient mood to kick off 2023, with most major equity indices pointing to a stronger open, while bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic slip. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are eking out small gains, but the greenback is almost a full percentage point higher on a year-to-date basis as traders trim excessive bets on the euro. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker after pushing through the 130 mark against the dollar in yesterday’s thin trading conditions. Investors...

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16 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Festive Cheer Drains Out of Markets As Central Banks Remain Hawkish Into Year End

After a bruising session yesterday, risk-sensitive currencies are setting up for another day of losses. The greenback is firmer, yields are higher, and commodity prices are weaker after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish-than-expected stance on Wednesday’s meeting, Europe’s central banks followed suit with their own 50-basis point hikes, and data pointed to a slowdown in American consumer spending. November retail sales tumbled 0.6 percent from the prior month, falling more than expected as price growth slowed and spending patterns shifted. So-called “control group” sales, which exclude building materials, vehicle parts and gas station sales, dropped 0.2 percent, while...

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15 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Risk Appetite Stabilizes After Fed Decision, Dollar Remains Weak

All is not calm and all is not bright in financial markets this morning, but price action remains surprisingly restrained after yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision. Equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, yet interest rates are stable, the dollar is soft, and most major currencies are trading within ranges established earlier in the week. The Fed tried to deliver an overtly-hawkish message: An updated dot plot showed the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee thinks interest rates will climb above 5.1 percent next year – well above market levels – and seven of nineteen said they...

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14 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Optimistic markets prepare for Fed decision

Tis’ the season to be jolly. Traders are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s data showed consumer prices rising in November at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. Although equity markets have largely retraced their steps, ten-year Treasury yields are holding below the 3.5-percent threshold, the dollar is weaker, and risk appetite looks robust across the currency markets. It might seem like investors are decking the halls with boughs of folly, but there are good reasons to think inflation is stabilizing at lower levels. Cheaper energy prices are gradually reducing upward pressure on headline indices, and seem unlikely to...

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