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EUR

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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Market Briefing: Risk Appetites Return Even as Odds on Fed “Pivot” Fall

Implied volatility is falling and risk-sensitive currencies are recovering after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s aircraft exited Taiwanese airspace without triggering a military response from China. Commodities are firmer, equity indices are marching higher, and safe haven currencies – the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc – are back on the defensive as traders position ahead of what is expected to be a strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Yields shot upward yesterday, staging the fourth-biggest rally in five years as a series of Federal Reserve officials pushed back against markets’ overly-dovish interpretation of last week’s decision. San Francisco president Mary...

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