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CNY

Knee-Jerk Market Reaction Fades On Mixed US Inflation Print

US inflation printed below expectations for a fifth consecutive month in June as tariff-led price increases in core goods categories were offset by softness in the services sector and in automobile costs. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 2.9 percent in June from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.1-percent pace, but undershooting consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On...

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Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump

Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The dollar is trading on a slightly firmer footing after posting its best performance since February last week, Treasury yields are up incrementally, and equity futures are pointing to modest selling at the open. Both the euro and Mexican peso are trading only slightly below Friday’s closing levels, even after Trump threatened to impose 30-percent tariffs on imports from August 1 in a pair of early-Saturday missives. Traders...

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Tariff pen pals

• Holding on. US sends out more tariff letters. Equities unfazed with S&P500 pushing higher. Bond yields dip. USD consolidated. AUD range-bound.• RBNZ steady. RBNZ on hold. But underlying tone & outlook still points to a bit more easing over coming months. This should act as a NZD handbrake.• AUD trends. AUD hovering near top end of its multi-month range. We think the risks of a USD rebound / AUD pull-back are starting to build. Global Trends Outside of a few more tariff letters being sent out by the US, news flow was light overnight and there were few economic...

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Jobs boost

• Upbeat tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD edged up overnight. EUR eased back, as did NZD & AUD, though they remain at high levels.• US data. US jobs report a bit better than expected. But topline result masks some pockets of weakness under the hood. Private payrolls were soft.• Event radar. US on holiday tonight. Next week RBA & RBNZ meet. RBA expected to cut rates. US’ ‘pause’ on higher tariffs also due to end. Global Trends Ahead of tonight’s US Independence Day holiday US equities extended their upswing, bond yields rose, and the USD recouped a...

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USD remains on the back foot

• Consolidation. Modest moves across most markets. USD index remains heavy with EUR pushing higher. AUD hovering near top of its range.• Macro pulse. US manufacturing ISM shows momentum still sluggish. US jobs report the main data focal point later this week.• AU data. Retail sales & building approvals released today. After a subdued start to the year will retail spending turn the corner? Global Trends Modest moves across markets at the start of the new month. US equities slipped back a touch from record highs (S&P500 -0.1%), US bond yields nudged up after trending lower the past few weeks,...

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