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CNY

28 Apr 2024

US Fed & JPY trends in focus

• Upbeat tone. Equities rose while yields drifted back on Friday. The JPY’s slide continued. The shift in RBA pricing helped the AUD outperform last week.• Priced in? A ‘hawkish hold’ expected from the US Fed. Rates markets already look to be factoring that in. A lot of positives appear priced into the USD.• Event radar. Globally focus will be on the China PMIs (Tues), various US labour stats (including payrolls on Friday), & the US Fed meeting (Thurs). Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing. European and US equities rose with the S&P500’s 1% lift on the back...

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25 Apr 2024

Stagflation worries return

• Stagflation concerns. Slower US growth & sticky inflation rattled nerves. US yields rose. Equities slipped back. But on net the USD eased.• AUD rebound. The positive Q1 Australian CPI surprise & repricing in RBA rate expectations has underpinned the AUD over the past few days.• BoJ today. No changes expected, but upgrades to inflation forecasts could see the BoJ deliver a ‘hawkish’ message. JPY intervention risks still elevated. The Q1 US GDP report rattled a few market nerves overnight as “stagflation” concerns (i.e. slow growth and high inflation) returned. Bond yields rose with rates in the US rising by...

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16 Apr 2024

Higher for (even) longer

• Fed speak. Chair Powell endorsed the upswing in rates pricing by noting the lack of further progress on inflation. US yields rise, equities fall.• USD support. The rates outlook is underpinning the USD. AUD touched its lowest level since mid-November with USD trends overpowering China GDP.• Priced in? Markets are now discounting a very ‘hawkish’ Fed interest rate outlook. The lofty USD may need another catalyst to move even higher. Market sentiment has stayed on the defensive as the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ US interest rates continues to sink in. The major European equity markets fell overnight (EuroStoxx50...

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15 Apr 2024

USD upswing continues

• Shaky sentiment. Middle East jitters were compounded by stronger US retail sales. Higher US bond yields weighed on equities & supported the USD.• AUD lower. Yesterday’s modest AUD recovery unwound overnight. The AUD is near its 2024 lows. USD upswing is pressuring other currencies.• China & Fed speakers. China Q1 GDP released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. The list includes Fed Chair Powell. After the market mood picked up during yesterday’s Asian trade sentiment soured overnight. The familiar forces of jitters about the situation in the Middle East after Israel vowed to respond and outlook...

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14 Apr 2024

Middle East tensions flare up

• Negative vibes. Sentiment soured on Friday as Middle East concerns rose. Equities & bond yields lost ground. The stronger USD pushed down the AUD.• Middle East. The situation in the Middle East remains fluid. Developments will be front of mind for investors at the start of the new week. Will oil prices spike?• Event radar. US retail sales due tonight. Several Fed members speaking this week. Across the region, China GDP, NZ CPI & AU jobs report are due. Risk sentiment ended last week on the backfoot, and geopolitical developments over the weekend point to further potential short-term turbulence....

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