CNY

• US tariffs. Tariff developments dominate the headlines. Yesterday the US announced 25% duties on vehicle imports. Reciprocal tariffs due 2 April.• Holding on. Equities eased, as did the USD. NZD ticked higher while AUD is hovering near ~$0.63. RBA & US jobs report also on the radar next week.• EUR risks. EUR strengthened over the past month. Is too much good news priced in? EU exposed to vehicle tariffs. EU is a large US trading partner. Global Trends US tariff developments continue to dominate the headlines and generate bursts of market volatility. Yesterday morning the US Administration came through...

• Jitters return. Post-US Fed optimism faded. Equities slipped back. USD index rose. NZD & AUD depreciated. AUD near ~$0.63, its March average.• AU jobs. February figures had more noise than signal. Employment fell but unemployment held steady. RBA shouldn’t jump at one month’s data.• Trading ranges. Yesterdays intra-day swing in AUD & NZD was larger than average. More vol. likely as the US’ 2 April ‘reciprocal tariff’ day nears. Global Trends The burst of market optimism, particularly in equities and cyclical currencies, after yesterday’s US Fed meeting when Chair Powell outlined that the tariff impact on inflation could be...

• Positive tone. Solid start to the week for risk assets. Equities rose, as did copper. USD softer. NZD (+1.3%) & AUD (+1%) outperform.• Macro trends. China data showed signs of improving momentum. Topline US retail sales weaker than expected. Growth trends weighing on the USD.• Central banks. Over coming days the Bank of Japan, US Fed, & Bank of England meet. Will the US Fed be more focused on inflation or growth? Global Trends Last Friday’s burst of market optimism has carried over into the new week. The equity market rebound extended with the US S&P500 (+0.6%) recording its...