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CNY

AUD cross-currents

• Mixed markets. European equities rose, while US stocks slipped back. Dovish European central bank outcomes weighed on EUR & GBP. USD a bit firmer.• Central banks. SNB cut rates again. The BoE opened the door to a move in August. The cross-currents pushed AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP higher.• Data flow. PMIs in focus today with data from Europe & the US due. Is the US’ outperformance fading? If so, the USD may lose ground. There were several pieces of global economic news overnight, yet for the most part the net financial market moves were modest. Equities across Europe rose again...

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Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite

The dollar is reversing an early-week decline and Treasury yields are creeping higher as market participants return from yesterday’s US holiday. North American equity futures are adding to their gains, and a broader improvement in sentiment is helping feed through into appreciation in high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – amid still-thin trading conditions. A surprise easing decision from the Swiss National Bank is helping bolster liquidity expectations. Officials in the financial safe haven elected to lower inflation projections and deliver a 25 basis point rate cut as they work to reduce restrictiveness and counter recent strength in the...

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European Political Uncertainty Weakens Risk Appetite

Currency markets are struggling to gain traction as political turmoil weighs on the euro, sustaining safe haven flows into the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Broader conditions look mixed, with North American equity futures little changed, bond yields ticking upward, crude prices nudging higher, and raw industrial commodity benchmarks slipping.  Ten-year French government bonds are still yielding roughly 80 basis points more than their German counterparts as uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the country’s two-round legislative election, which is set to conclude on July 7. Both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the left-wing Popular Front parties have made substantial advances...

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Market Calm Returns

Financial markets are stabilising this morning as investors process the implications of yesterday’s soft US inflation print and more hawkish-than-expected Fed decision. The dollar is moving sideways along with the pound and euro, Treasury yields are slipping, and North American equity futures are setting up for a mixed trading day. The May inflation report was unquestionably positive, consistent with rate cuts beginning in the autumn months. Headline and core consumer price indices increased by less than expected, with declining energy prices putting downward pressure on the all-items measure while a sharp decline in car insurance premiums offset still-stubborn shelter costs....

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US events in focus

• Shaky sentiment. US equities, yields & the USD a bit lower as Q1 US GDP was revised down. AUD rebounds up towards ~$0.6630 (its 1-month average)• US politics. Former President Trump found guilty. Market impact has (so far) been limited. More twists & turns in US politics look likely.• Data flow. China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, & US PCE deflator due today. Moderating US inflation & positive data elsewhere could weigh on the USD. There was a ‘risk off’ tone across most markets overnight, although in FX the moves didn’t follow the usual script. US equities slipped back (S&P500 -0.6%)...

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