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CNY

05 Nov 2024

Markets Enter Risk-Aversion Mode Ahead of Election

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are inching higher, and equity indices are setting up for a positive open as the world’s worst reality show enters its final act. Elements of the ‘Trump trade’ are recovering after yesterday’s selloff, with many investors back to betting on the former president after the weekend’s polls suggested that markets were underestimating Kamala Harris’ electoral chances. There are other event risks to consider. The Bank of England is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday morning, with traders paying particular attention to how policymakers describe the impact of last week’s budget...

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04 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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03 Nov 2024

US election odds swing again

• Market vol. US jobs data & election polls whipsawed markets. USD lost ground this morning (AUD higher) after election polls/odds narrowed.• US election. Voting progressively closes over Wednesday morning AEDT. Market reaction to the result could be binary. Volatility anticipated.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues) with the US Fed expected to cut rates (Fri AEDT). But this should be secondary to the US election. The sticker shock of a weaker than predicted US non-farm payrolls print and US election polls released over the weekend whipsawed markets on Friday night and this morning. On net, US equities increased (S&P500 +0.4%)...

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30 Oct 2024

Swings & roundabouts

• Vol. continues. Intra-session market swings. US/European equities ended the day lower. AUD & NZD nudged up. US data & election on the horizon.• Rates repricing. Positive EZ GDP & higher regional inflation saw ECB rate cut bets pared back. US GDP also solid. Bond yields rose, with EUR ticking up.• AU CPI. Headline inflation back in RBA’s band. This is because of government measures. Core CPI still above. RBA expected to hold next week. Intra-session volatility continued across markets yesterday as participants reacted to the incoming macro news flow. European and US equities ended the session lower (EuroStoxx50 -1.3%,...

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29 Oct 2024

AUD still floundering

• Cross-currents. US equities outperformed. USD still elevated with global growth/US election concerns keeping NZD & AUD on the backfoot.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due today. Government measures will mechanically lower headline inflation. RBA more focused on trends in core CPI.• Data flow. US election is next week. Ahead of that US Q3 GDP is due tonight. PCE deflator & non-farm payrolls also released this week. Mixed signals overnight across markets and regions. Unlike the dip in European equities (EuroStoxx600 -0.6%) the US stockmarket rose. A rally by megacap tech names, which was led by Alphabet after its earnings beat...

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