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US election coming into view

• Mixed signals. US equities ticked up, while bond yields slipped back. GBP, EUR, NZD, & AUD lost a bit of ground. US election is fast approaching.• US election. Trump is ahead in the polls across most of the battleground swing states. Given his policy platform this is supporting the USD.• Event radar. Locally, the jobs report is due today. Tonight the ECB is expected to cut rates again, while in the US retail sales & jobless claims are due. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight. US equities rebounded from the previous days dip with the S&P500 (+0.5%) hovering just below...

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Dollar Treads Water as Oil Prices Slump

The dollar is edging lower this morning as geopolitical concerns ebb, but continues to hold gains achieved over the first two weeks of October, remaining higher against all of its major counterparts excepting the safe-have Swiss franc. Easing expectations fell further in yesterday’s session when Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller clearly indicated a preference for cutting rates in smaller-sized increments. “I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting,” he said, noting that if the current trajectory of inflation and...

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More talk than action

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US S&P500 hit another record. Bond yields ticked up while the USD remained range bound.• China stimulus. More positive rhetoric but no specifics about the next wave of fiscal stimulus. But this looks to be a matter of when, not if.• Event radar. Locally, jobs figures are due (Thurs). Offshore, ECB meets, while US retail sales, NZ CPI, UK CPI, & China GDP are released this week. It was a rather subdued end to last week across markets. European and US equities ticked up with the S&P500 (+0.6%) touching yet another record high...

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Easing Hopes Unwind Further, Putting Pressure on Currency Markets

The dollar is recovering, ten-year Treasury yields are pushing higher, and risk sentiment is worsening as traders further downgrade odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, forcing investors to brace for a modest tightening in financial conditions. The Canadian dollar is surging on an unexpectedly-strong jobs report, which is also lowering expectations for an accelerated pace of monetary easing in coming months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday reported an unexpectedly-large increase in underlying inflation. The core consumer price index – which excludes food and energy costs – climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month in September, reversing a period of declines...

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Expectations matter

• Partial reversal. US equities consolidated, bond yields eased, & base metal prices rose. After a negative run AUD & NZD a bit firmer.• US inflation. Headline & core CPI a touch higher than predicted. Key underlying trends still point to a series of US Fed rate cuts over the next year.• Event radar. China holds a fiscal policy briefing tomorrow. US PPI tonight. Next week AU jobs, US retail sales, ECB meeting, & China GDP are due. A modest reversal of fortunes across markets overnight despite the latest US CPI inflation reading coming in a touch higher than predicted....

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