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CNY

28 Nov 2024

Hold the line

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone equities rose & yields dipped. USD tread water.• AUD holding. AUD little changed. RBA Governor Bullock spoke & noted that “underlying” inflation is too high to consider a near-term rate cut.• Data flow. EZ CPI due tonight. China PMIs tomorrow. Next week AU GDP is released, Fed Chair Powell speaks, & the US jobs report is out. With the US closed for the Thanksgiving holiday it was a quiet night on markets. Across in Europe, equities rose with the EuroStoxx600 ~0.5% higher, while bond yields declined. Bond yields...

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27 Nov 2024

Fundamentals vs flows

• Softer USD. A firmer EUR, stronger JPY, & month-end portfolio rebalancing flows exerted a bit of downward pressure on the USD.• AUD & NZD. AUD ticked up & NZD rose despite RBNZ delivering a 50bp cut & indicating more to come. AUD/NZD below model estimates.• Holiday markets. US markets closed for Thanksgiving tonight & only open for a few hours on Friday. Thinner liquidity may generate bursts of intra-day vol. Mixed fortunes across markets over the past 24hrs with the economic data and central bank comments butting up against month-end portfolio rebalancing ahead of the US Thanksgiving holidays. US...

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27 Nov 2024

Markets Consolidate Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors consider the implications of Donald Trump’s latest cabinet picks and position ahead of this morning’s inflation update. The dollar is inching lower amid month-end flows, Treasury yields are down, equity futures are slipping, and oil prices are weakening after Israel and Hezbollah reached a cease-fire agreement late yesterday, reducing the likelihood of a widening conflict that could pull in other regional powers. Unease over the extent to which protectionist policies might be deployed by the US remains elevated after the president-elect tapped Robert Lighthizer’s former chief of staff to lead trade...

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26 Nov 2024

The ‘tariff man’ is back

• US tariffs. Markets rattled by President-elect Trump’s announcement tariffs would be imposed on Mexico, Canada & China on his first day.• USD firmer. The move supported the USD & weighed on cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD. Negative risk sentiment saw the JPY outperform.• Data flow. Today, the monthly AU CPI is due. RBNZ also expected to cut rates again with a 50bp reduction predicted by analysts. Markets were rattled yesterday after President-elect Trump fired a few shots in his post-election trade war. Via social media Trump stated that to curb the inflow of drugs and migrants he would...

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26 Nov 2024

‘Tariff Man’s’ Return Rocks Currency Markets

Donald Trump’s threat to raise consumption taxes on a range of goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China is still sending shockwaves across currency markets. The dollar is up roughly a percentage point against its North American and European counterparts after the president last night said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of allowing illegal migrants and drug traffickers into the US. In a break with long-standing Republican orthodoxy – most clearly under Ronald Reagan – this would raise trade...

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