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Policy uncertainty

• Mixed markets. US equities fell. ECB cut rates but gave off ‘hawkish’ vibes. EUR holds onto recent gains. AUD up near its 4-month average.• Push/pull. US tariff news still evolving. Pres. Trump announced temporary exemptions on some imports from Mexico & Canada. The art of the deal?• US jobs. Monthly US jobs report due tonight. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks on the outlook. These events could spark more USD volatility. Global Trends Markets continue to be whipped around by geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In the US, tariff news is still evolving. US President Trump announced that goods from...

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Dollar Slide Continues as Growth Differentials Shift

Markets are turning down ahead of the North American open as global bond yields ratchet higher and extreme levels of policy uncertainty cripple investment and spending decisions in the world’s largest economy, narrowing expected growth differentials across the major currency blocs. The trade-weighted dollar is down more than 2 percent on the week, ten-year Treasury yields are lagging their international rivals, and equity markets are setting up for a broad-based retreat after the bell. The Trump administration yesterday said it would give automakers a one-month reprieve from the 25 percent tariffs that have been imposed on other imports from Canada...

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Markets Stabilise on Tariff Hopes

Some semblance of calm is returning to financial markets this morning after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the administration could agree to relax tariffs on Canada and Mexico by this afternoon. Equity indices plunged, Treasury yields tumbled, and risk-sensitive currencies sold off during yesterday’s session as investors expressed concern over the growth-negative aspects of the Trump administration’s tariff measures, but reversed higher when Lutnick’s interview with Fox News aired after the North American close, and have added to their gains this morning on similar comments provided during an interview with Bloomberg. Currency traders remain on tenterhooks however, especially...

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EU on the defensive

• EU spending. Signals about more EU defence spending boosted the EUR. This has weighed on the USD & indirectly given the AUD some support.• Tariffs. US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, & China kicked off. China & Canada announced retaliatory measures. Pres. Trump speaks today.• AU data. Q4 GDP due today. Partial indicators suggest growth momentum improved. RBA easing cycle to be slow & limited. China’s NPC also starts. Global Trends Geopolitical developments continue to push and pull markets. Global equity market losses extended overnight, with larger falls coming through in Europe compared to the US (EuroStoxx600 -2.1%...

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Tariffs & economic risks

• US risks. ISM manufacturing index underwhelmed. Pres. Trump reiterated that tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China kick in tomorrow.• Risk sentiment. Backdrop weighed on US yields & equities. AUD/USD holding its ground, but AUD underperformed the EUR, GBP, & JPY.• Volatility. More bursts of market volatility likely. Several global & domestic risk events are scheduled over the rest of this week. Global Trends Diverging regional performance across markets overnight. In Europe, efforts to forge a Ukraine/Russia peace plan and the prospect of greater regional defence spending supported equities (particularly the aerospace and defence sector), pushed up bond...

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