CNY

• Optimistic markets. Equities rose, oil dipped on positive US/Iran vibes. More volatility likely. USD softens. AUD whipped around by push/pull forces.• RBA hike. RBA announced its 3rd straight rate rise. Another hike more likely than not. But it will come at an economic cost. Growth set to slow sharply. Global Trends Sentiment about the situation in the Middle East has generated a few bursts of volatility over recent sessions. Following a deterioration in risk appetite yesterday indications the US/Iran ceasefire is holding eased fears overnight. US officials downplayed Iran’s actions stating that the targeting of warships and attacks on...

• JPY jump. USD weaker as Japanese officials intervene to prop up the very weak JPY. This & positive sentiment boosted the AUD & NZD.• Macro trends. Further bouts of JPY intervention possible. US GDP re-accelerates. BoE & ECB hold rates steady, but ECB hints at future hikes. Global TrendsA few push-pull forces washed through markets overnight with risk sentiment generally improving at the end of the month. European and US equities rose with the S&P500 (+1%) recording its best month since late 2020 (+10.4% in April). Elsewhere, bond yields gave back ground with 2yr rates across the UK, Europe,...

• Market wobbles. Jump in oil & ‘hawkish’ vibes from US Fed rattled investors. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground. AUD underperforms on crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation accelerates, but not as much as expected. However it is too high & RBA should respond. More hikes priced. Growth set to slow. Global Trends A few renewed wobbles across markets overnight as a mix of factors rattled nerves. European equities lost ground (EuroStoxx600 -0.6%) and the major US indices tread water, while bond yields rose with US rates climbing ~8-11bps across the curve. Elsewhere, the USD edged up with EUR (now...

• Upbeat vibes. Reports Iran proposed reopening Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment. Equities rose. AUD near top of its range. But oil markets sceptical.• Event radar. US/Iran still in focus. Australian Q1 CPI due (Weds), as is US GDP (Thurs night). Five central banks meet including US Fed (Thurs morning). Global Trends Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the back of reports Iran, via Pakistani mediators, put forward a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US ending its naval blockade, a few short-sighted asset classes perked up. US...

• Market wobbles. Fears of a re-escalation in Iran dampened sentiment overnight. President Trump extended the ceasefire this morning.• FX moves. USD firmer due to higher oil & strong US retail sales. NZD holds up because of NZ CPI. AUD lost some ground. More bursts of vol. expected. Global Trends A few more Middle East related gyrations across markets overnight. Risk sentiment was on the backfoot for most of the trading session on fears there might be a re-escalation of the conflict given the ceasefire deadline was approaching, US Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan had been put on hold,...