CNY

• JPY jump. Sizeable drop in USD/JPY, reportedly due to intervention. This has weighed on the USD & pushed AUD up to levels last traded in mid-June.• Market pulse. BoJ meets today. Could it deliver a surprise hike? BoE kept rates steady overnight. US GDP underwhelmed but underlying detail was solid. Global Trends A flurry of excitement across markets overnight with FX in the spotlight. The USD has been under pressure with a bit more of a reaction to yesterday’s ‘on hold’ US Fed decision compounded by moves in the JPY. USD/JPY (the second most traded currency pair) has dropped...

• Market nerves. Middle East news pushes up oil & inflation worries boost bond yields. US equities decline. USD firmer. AUD & NZD weaker.• AU jobs. Employment stronger than predicted. But unemployment above RBA’s forecast. Q2 CPI due next week. AUD facing global headwinds. Global Trends Nervousness across financial markets has intensified with risk sentiment weakening further overnight. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are renewing concerns about inflation and what it might mean for interest rates. In addition to the fighting around Iran, which is disrupting shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, attacks in the Red Sea are threatening...

• Risk wobbles. US/Iran tensions push oil higher. US yields rose, equities slip back, USD consolidated. AUD hovering just below ~US$0.70.• AU jobs. Monthly jobs data due today. Labour demand indicators have softened. Underwhelming report could raise doubts RBA may hike again. Global Trends A few renewed bouts of market volatility over recent days, albeit relatively modest compared to what has occurred at times this year. Ongoing skirmishes between the US and Iran has dampened the mood and propelled oil prices higher (brent crude is back above ~US$94/brl for the first time since early-June, ~34% above this month’s low point)....

• Market rebound. Pres. Trump backtracks on Strait of Hormuz levy. US CPI softer. Odds of a July Fed hike pared back. USD weaker. AUD & NZD rise.• Data pulse. US CPI underwhelms, but Fed Chair Warsh not swayed. US producer prices out tonight. China GDP due today. BoC expected to hold. Global Trends The modest market meltdown at the start of the week unwound overnight with the mood more positive. On net, US equities rose (S&P500 +0.4%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+0.9%), US bond yields dipped ~3-9bps across the curve, and the USD lost a bit of ground....

• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing in a Q3 Fed rate hike. US CPI out tonight. New US Fed Chair Warsh also speaks. USD vol. likely. Global Trends A few renewed geopolitical and macro related wobbles across markets at the start of the new week. US equities lost altitude (S&P500 -0.8%), with the tech-sector underperforming (NASDAQ -1.6%), while US bond yields rose ~6-7bps across the curve and oil prices jumped up (Brent Crude +9.5% to ~US$83.30/brl, a...