CNY

• Blue wave. Large swing for Democrats in US mid-terms. Set to control House & Senate. US equities rose. Bond yields, oil prices, & USD declined.• AUD rebounds. Weaker USD & positive risk sentiment boosted the AUD. Push-pull forces point to more volatility. Softer USD offset by slower AU economy. Global Trends The US mid-term election results were in the market driver’s seat overnight, with the sweep of Congress by the Democrats exceeding even bullish pre-vote predictions. The Democrats look to have secured control of both the House and the Senate with strong majorities. There are several push/pull forces to...

• Push/pull forces. Rebound in tech stocks boosted US equities. US mid-term elections in focus today. Potential for bursts of USD volatility over period ahead.• RBA hike. RBA raised rates to 4.85%, high since 2008. AUD slips back. Worsening growth outlook & split RBA vote suggests hiking phase may be over. Global Trends There have been a few intermittent gyrations across markets over the past few sessions as macro and geopolitical factors washed through. On net, a tentative revival of the AI trade boosted US equities overnight (S&P500 +0.3%, NASDAQ +0.8%). Bond yields ticked up (US 10yr +5bps to ~4.96%),...

• Central banks. US equities ticked up. No change by US Fed. USD a bit weaker. Bank of Canada lifts rates. RBNZ surprised by holding steady. NZD tumbled.• CPI & RBA. Australian Q3 inflation firmer than expected. Odds of another RBA hike next week rise. AUD extends its upswing. Will the RBA deliver? Global Trends Central bank meetings and shifts in interest rate expectations have been in focus over the past 24hrs. On balance, the tone across markets has remained positive. US equities edged up again (S&P500 +0.3%), the US yield curve flattened a little as 2yr rates dipped (-4bps...

• Positive vibes. Risk sentiment improved overnight. But earnings reports from tech stocks may generate vol. this week. AUD & NZD drifted a bit lower.• Macro pulse. Australian Q3 CPI due (Weds). RBNZ expected to hike (Weds). US Fed, BoJ, & ECB also meeting this week. Q3 US GDP also on the radar. Global Trends A few push-pull forces washed through markets at the start of the new week, but on net sentiment improved a little compared to the recent torrid spell. US equities recorded solid gains with the tech sector leading the way (S&P500 +0.7%, NASDAQ +0.8%). More bursts...

• Positive tone. Solid tech sector earnings supported US stocks. Bond yields consolidated. AUD & NZD continue to grind up. AUD near ~6mth average.• AU trends. RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser reiterated that inflation challenges remain. Odds of another hike by year-end rise. Q4 AU CPI due next week. Global Trends The more upbeat tone in markets continued overnight. Solid earnings results from a few megacap tech stocks eased worries (at least in the near-term) about the sustainability of capital investment spending and returns. The US S&P500 edged up ~0.6% to be within striking distance of its record highs, while the...