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CNY

05 Mar 2026

Market swings continue

• Oil jump. Another move higher in oil prices because of Middle East concerns dampened risk sentiment. Equities fell. USD firmer. AUD underperforms.• Macro worries. Higher energy prices pose an upside risk to inflation & downside risk to growth. More bouts of market & AUD volatility likely. Global Trends Market volatility related to developments in the Middle East and swings in the oil price continued overnight. This time sentiment soured once again with the US/Israel strikes on Iran showing little sign of easing after several days of conflict. Indeed, the conflict appears to be widening across the region with more...

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03 Mar 2026

Middle East concerns rattle markets

• Market swings. Middle East conflict generated a burst of volatility overnight. Equities declined, oil prices rose. AUD traded in a ~2.5% range yesterday.• Macro news. AU Q4 GDP today. RBA Gov. Bullock noted the March meeting is “live”. China PMIs also due. US ISM services & ADP employment out tonight. Global Trends The broadening conflict in the Middle East and concerns that it could drag on longer than the “4 to 5 weeks” touted by President Trump rattled market nerves overnight. Risk sentiment soured as ‘stagflation’ worries took hold given the prospect of a simultaneous slowdown in growth and...

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03 Mar 2026

Dollar powers higher as Mideast conflict widens

Good morning. The dollar is steamrolling its major rivals for a second consecutive session as geopolitical risks and inflation fears reinforce one another. With the conflict in the Middle East showing few signs of easing, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, traders are unwinding cross-border positions and retreating to the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets in a pattern known to currency traders as the “dollar smile”*. Ten-year Treasury yields are flirting with the 4.10 threshold after their sharpest single-session rise since October, North American equity futures are setting up for a bruising loss at the...

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02 Mar 2026

Volatility rises as conflict spreads, but currency movements remain restrained

Good morning. Financial markets are experiencing violent price action after the weekend’s US-Israeli strike on Iran triggered a classic—if short-lived—flight to safety and a sharp repricing in global energy markets. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz grinding to a standstill and Gulf producers curtailing output, crude prices are up roughly 9 percent from Friday’s close, while natural gas benchmarks in Europe and Asia have surged more than 30 percent. Qatar’s state-owned energy company—one of the world’s biggest—invoked force majeure this morning, pausing liquefied natural gas delivery after Iran hit some of its facilities with drone strikes, and authorities in...

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01 Mar 2026

Duck & Cover

• Geopolitical nerves. US/Israel conflict with Iran has dampened risk sentiment in early Asian trade. USD firmer. NZD slips back. AUD underperforms.• Lingering risks. Market nervousness may persist for a while. Focus on oil. Risk of a jump up in prices. This could have macro impacts & be USD supportive. Global Trends The weekend geopolitical news looks set to dominate the market action, at least through the early part of the week. There is heightened uncertainty following the US/Israel missile attack on Iran, the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes at neighbouring nations....

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