CNY

• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls weaker than expected. Some noise in the monthly report. US Fed rate hike pricing pushed back. USD softer. AUD a bit firmer.• JPY focus. Reports out of Japan indicate officials may move to a less predictable FX intervention strategy. Will they step in during the US holiday? Global Trends Ahead of the US’ Independence Day long weekend markets were focused on the latest monthly jobs report. The topline results were generally weaker than predicted with US non-farm payrolls growth slowing to 57,000 in June (its smallest gain since the falls recorded in February), and the...

• Risk wobbles. US/European equities slipped back overnight. USD firmer. NZD treading water while AUD underperforms. AUD still tracking sub ~$0.69.• Data trends. On net, more solid US data released the past few days. Monthly US jobs report released tonight. Fed rate hike pricing could shift again. Global Trends After a positive end to Q2 there were a few modest wobbles across markets overnight. European and US equities slipped back with the tech-focused NASDAQ (-0.7%) underperforming the broader S&P500 (-0.2%). Long-end bond yields ticked up a fraction with the US 10yr rate tracking near ~4.48%, a little above the midpoint...

• Risk rebound. US equities rose overnight after last week’s falls. USD/JPY touched highest point since 1986. AUD treading water just under ~$0.69.• Data pulse. RBA minutes & China PMIs due today. Later this week US Fed Chair Warsh speaks, the ISM is due, & non-farm payrolls are released. Global Trends After the recent bout of risk aversion which saw US equities decline and the USD strengthen last week, markets have started this week on a more positive footing. The US S&P500 rose overnight (+1.2%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+2.1%). ‘Glass half full’ equities bounced despite lingering ‘valuation’ concerns,...

• Holding on. Consolidation across most markets after the recent turbulence. USD treads water. AUD hovering near ~$0.69, ~5% from its May peak.• Data flow. AU jobs rebound in May, but that only unwound the April falls. More doubts RBA will hike again. US data firm. US Fed rate hikes underpriced? Global Trends Following the recent bouts of turbulence, there was a relative sense of calm and modest moves across markets overnight. US equities were choppy with the tech-focused NASDAQ slipping back again (-0.5%) in part due to heavyweight stock Apple shedding ~6% after announcing its product price rises. Elsewhere,...

• Shaky ground. A bout of risk aversion has washed through markets the past few days. US equities lose ground. USD firmer. AUD down near ~$0.6900.• Macro pulse. US PCE deflator out tonight. Australian jobs report due today. We think the cross-currents point to more downside risks for the AUD. Global Trends Markets have been on edge for the past few days with a bout of risk aversion washing through. Equities have fallen back. The US S&P500 has lost ground for three straight sessions, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming. The NASDAQ has declined by ~4% so far this week, however...