CNY

• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in? Global Trends A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets overnight with US equities a touch softer (NASDAQ -0.1%), bond yields rising a little (US rates rose ~2-4bps across the curve), oil nudging up (brent crude +0.5% to US$87.45/brl), and the USD firmer against...

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...

• US yields. Swings in US yields over the past few days on the back of Treasury news has generated some FX vol. AUD near top of its multi-week range.• AU jobs. Cracks in the AU labour market are widening. Unemployment at 2021 levels. RBA may not need to hike rates again. AUD headwinds building. Global Trends A few more ructions across markets over the past couple of sessions. But rather than being geopolitically driven the gyrations related to developments in the US bond market, and this spilled over into other asset classes like FX. Yesterday the US Treasury announced...

• Shaky sentiment. US equities slip back as long end bond yields climb higher due to inflation & debt burden worries. AUD & NZD lose some ground.• Macro data. Australian wages due today & the jobs report is out tomorrow. Data flow could challenge the markets RBA rate hike thinking. Global Trends Market wobbles continued overnight with a modest bout of risk aversion dragging on things like US equities (S&P500 -0.7%, NASDAQ -1.3%), copper (-2.3%) and precious metals (gold -1.9%), as well as cyclical currencies such as the AUD (now ~$0.7085) and NZD (now ~$0.5874). Interconnected worries about inflation and...

• Market wobbles. Geopolitical tensions underpin oil prices. Equities drift back. Run of weaker US data has weighed on USD. AUD near multi-week highs.• Data pulse. Global PMIs in focus later this week. Australian jobs report also due (Thurs). Data might challenge (or reinforce) markets RBA rate hike thinking. Global Trends Geopolitical and macroeconomic crosscurrents have generated more, albeit modest, gyrations across markets over the past few sessions. US equites drifted back overnight with the S&P500 (-0.5%) recording its third fall in the past six sessions, while long end bond yields ticked up. At ~4.72% the US 10yr is near...