CNY

• Market rebound. Pres. Trump backtracks on Strait of Hormuz levy. US CPI softer. Odds of a July Fed hike pared back. USD weaker. AUD & NZD rise.• Data pulse. US CPI underwhelms, but Fed Chair Warsh not swayed. US producer prices out tonight. China GDP due today. BoC expected to hold. Global Trends The modest market meltdown at the start of the week unwound overnight with the mood more positive. On net, US equities rose (S&P500 +0.4%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+0.9%), US bond yields dipped ~3-9bps across the curve, and the USD lost a bit of ground....

• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing in a Q3 Fed rate hike. US CPI out tonight. New US Fed Chair Warsh also speaks. USD vol. likely. Global Trends A few renewed geopolitical and macro related wobbles across markets at the start of the new week. US equities lost altitude (S&P500 -0.8%), with the tech-sector underperforming (NASDAQ -1.6%), while US bond yields rose ~6-7bps across the curve and oil prices jumped up (Brent Crude +9.5% to ~US$83.30/brl, a...

• US markets. US stocks rose with the tech sector leading the way. USD Index treads water. The AUD ticked up thanks in part to strength on the crosses.• Data flow. Limited data releases in Australia & the US. RBNZ meets tomorrow. Will the RBNZ deliver its first interest rate hike of this cycle? Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week in US markets. US equities rose overnight (S&P500 +0.7%), with the tech focused NASDAQ outperforming (+1.1%). Oversold semiconductor and AI stocks rebounded after last week’s falls. Elsewhere, long end bond yields held steady...

• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls weaker than expected. Some noise in the monthly report. US Fed rate hike pricing pushed back. USD softer. AUD a bit firmer.• JPY focus. Reports out of Japan indicate officials may move to a less predictable FX intervention strategy. Will they step in during the US holiday? Global Trends Ahead of the US’ Independence Day long weekend markets were focused on the latest monthly jobs report. The topline results were generally weaker than predicted with US non-farm payrolls growth slowing to 57,000 in June (its smallest gain since the falls recorded in February), and the...