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CNY

Political developments roil currency markets

Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is under pressure after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have instructed the country’s commercial banks to cut their holdings of American government debt, noting threats posed by “concentration risks and market volatility”. According to the report, officials verbally advised financial institutions to reduce new purchases and scale down existing positions in recent weeks. Benchmark ten-year yields are up five basis points, and the trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percent. The policy shift is less dramatic than the headline suggests—implying that the kneejerk market reaction should fade—but is important nonetheless. Even when...

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Risk Reversal

• Risk rebound. Strong recovery in US equities. USD lost ground. Backdrop pushed NZD & AUD higher. JPY still under pressure post weekend elections.• Data flow. RBA Deputy Gov speaks (Weds). US retail sales (Tues night), jobs report (Weds night), & CPI (Fri night) due. Several Fed members also speak. Global Trends There was a turnaround in market sentiment at the end of last week with cyclical assets (i.e. equities and copper) and growth linked currencies such as the AUD and NZD posting solid gains on Friday. After a few soft sessions related to concerns about AI disruption and the...

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Push-pull forces

• Push-pull. A few equity market wobbles overnight. USD a bit firmer. NZD underperforms. AUD retraces its RBA rate hike induced uptick.• Macro events. ECB & BoE expected to hold rates steady tonight. US JOLTS also due. US jobs report has been delayed until next week. Global Trends There were a few market wobbles overnight as various forces pushed and pulled on sentiment. US equities slipped back with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.5% vs S&P500 -0.5%). Some disappointing earnings results and a rotation out of the software and chipmaking tech stocks that have driven the market rally were factors at...

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Precious metals plunge triggers global selloff

A slow-motion flight to safety is underway across the currency markets this morning, as a bloodbath in the precious metals complex extends into a second week. Equity futures are pointing to further losses at the North American open, the US dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders exit risky positions across a range of asset classes, and commodity-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are coming under selling pressure. Gold and silver prices suffered their biggest selloff in years on Friday, prompting many observers to suggest that the “debasement trade” was in...

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USD turnaround

• Reversal. Positive data & Trump’s Fed Chair announcement boosted the USD. Commodities fell. AUD also lost ground (now ~2% below Thursday’s peak).• Macro risks. RBA expected to hike rates (Tues). But yield spreads & AUD already moved. US jobs data might rebound. This could be USD supportive. Global Trends There was a bit of a “reversal of fortune” across markets at the end of last week with US equities falling slightly (S&P500 -0.4%), short-end bond yields rising (US 2yr +4bps), commodities such as copper (-5.2%) and gold (-9.6%) tumbling, and the USD recouping lost ground. In FX, EUR declined...

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