CNY

• Improved vibes. Turnaround in markets overnight on reports Iran is looking to restart nuclear talks. Equities rose, oil prices eased. AUD & NZD rebounded.• Macro trends. Middle East situation remains fluid. Data wise, US retail sales out tonight. Signs consumer spending is holding up may give the USD a boost.• China pulse. Retail sales in China stronger. Industrial output also expanded. Developments in China are important for AUD’s medium-term trend. Global Trends Risk sentiment improved overnight. Markets have taken a more sanguine view of the Israel/Iran conflict given the fighting hasn’t spread across the region and because of reports...

• Middle East conflict. Developments dampened sentiment. Oil prices spiked & equities slipped back. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• Volatility. Geopolitical tensions can generate more bursts of volatility. This adds to the economic uncertainty stemming from various US policies.• Event Radar. AU jobs report (Thurs) is due. China data out today. In the US retail sales & Fed meeting in focus. BoJ & BoE also on the schedule. Global Trends Developments in the Middle East rattled markets on Friday, and with Israel and Iran continuing to trade blows over the weekend investor nervousness is likely to continue...

• Mixed signals. Positive US CPI offset by lack of US/China trade progress. S&P500 dipped, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD also eased back.• Tariff impacts. Some signs of tariffs in US inflation. But other factors working the opposite way. Will US inflation re-accelerate down the track?• Data flow. US producer prices & jobless claims tonight. Next week US Fed meets, China data is due, & the AU jobs report is released. Global Trends Contrasting US economic and trade tariff news generated a few intra-session market swings overnight. On the more positive front US CPI came in a little...