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CNY

02 Dec 2025

AU growth & US ADP employment in focus

• Positive tone. Limited news flow. Upbeat market vibes continue. US equities rose again. Cyclical currencies like the AUD & NZD ticked up further.• AU GDP. Australian Q3 growth data out today. Partial indicators point to solid private sector activity. This may bolster the case for no more RBA rate cuts.• US data. ADP employment & services ISM out tonight. ADP is last major jobs report before next US Fed meeting. It could generate some USD volatility. Global Trends Modest moves across markets over the past 24hrs, though the underlying tone has remained upbeat. News flow has been limited, but...

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30 Nov 2025

Shifting interest rate expectations

• Positive trends. Risk sentiment remained positive on Friday. US & European equities rose, as did cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD.• AU/NZ factors. After last week’s AU CPI & signals from the RBNZ, markets are toying with the idea the next move in AU & NZ rates may be up not down.• Event Radar. Australia Q3 GDP is out (Weds). In the US, focus should be on the ISM indices, ADP employment, & other labour market indicators. Global Trends It was a quiet end to last week (and November) with the US Thanksgiving Holiday period depressing trading activity....

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25 Nov 2025

RBNZ & AU CPI in focus

• Upbeat vibes. US equities rose while bond yields dipped. USD softer. Run of weak US data supported the case for another US Fed rate cut in December.• RBNZ meeting. NZD ticks up ahead of RBNZ decision. Another cut expected with markets looking for a 25bp move. Is the easing cycle almost over?• AU CPI. First full monthly CPI report out. Data could be volatile the next few months. Will it reinforce the case for the RBA to hold steady from here? Global Trends The more upbeat sentiment across markets continued overnight with a mix of macro and geopolitical news...

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23 Nov 2025

Market swings continue

• Positive vibes. Increased odds of a December US Fed rate cut boosted sentiment. US equities rose. AUD & NZD ticked higher on Friday.• AU/NZ events. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Most are predicting a 25bp move. First full monthly CPI inflation report out in Australia (Weds).• Event Radar. In the US shutdown delayed retail sales & PPI data due (Tues night AEDT). Thanksgiving holidays may impact liquidity later in the week. Global Trends Intra-session market swings continued Friday, in line with the erratic daily gyrations that have been coming through recently. The zig-zag pattern in US equities...

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20 Nov 2025

Shaky ground

• Risk wobbles. Positive sentiment after the Nvidia earnings report faded. US equities declined, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD lost ground.• US jobs. Delayed US jobs data showed stronger payrolls but also higher unemployment. Odds of a December US Fed rate cut have declined.• Data flow. Global PMIs & Fed members speaking today. Because of shutdown backlog Fed won’t have another jobs report before mid-December meeting. Global Trends Risk appetite continues to swing around with another burst of volatility coming through overnight. The positive vibes stemming from yesterday’s corporate earnings report from tech-powerhouse Nvidia faded. Broader sentiment changed...

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