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CNY

15 Jan 2026

Swings & roundabouts

• Positive tone. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rebounded. Bond yields rose. Oil fell. AUD ticked up thanks to some relative outperformance.• Data flow. Limited releases today. Next week things pick up with China GDP (Mon), AU jobs (Thurs), PMIs (Fri), BoJ (Fri), & US PCE (Fri) due. Global Trends Geopolitical related headlines generated a few minor bursts of volatility across a couple of asset classes the last few days. However, as our chart below shows, cross-asset volatility remains below average with the headline noise not having a lasting impact. Indeed, this was the case once again with the latest...

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14 Jan 2026

Fundamental drivers reassert themselves in currency markets

Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese yen becoming a key focal point ahead of a potential snap election. Equity futures are setting up for a negative open after modest losses in yesterday’s session, Treasury yields are holding firm across the curve, and the dollar is trading almost imperceptibly lower against a basket of its major counterparts. American consumers continued to engage in retail therapy in November. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning,...

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12 Jan 2026

Noise vs Signal

• Headline noise. Markets continue to take geopolitical/macro developments in stride. US equities rose overnight. AUD ticked higher.• US Fed. Investigation into Fed Chair Powell raises concerns about central bank independence. US CPI out tonight. US retail sales due later this week.• AU data. Household spending firmer than expected. AU jobs data (22 Jan) & Q4 CPI (28 Jan) important for RBA. A February rate hike is ~30% priced in. Global Trends A few geopolitical and economic crosscurrents such as developments in Venezuela and some US data have generated modest bursts of intermittent volatility over the past few weeks. But...

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07 Jan 2026

Markets turn data-driven

Good morning, and feel free to hit the snooze button. Financial markets are back to ignoring geopolitical headlines, with most major currency pairs exhibiting rangebound behaviour, Treasury yields flatlining, and equity futures setting up for an incremental retreat at the open. Investors are ignoring the latest threats against Greenland from the White House*, and are downplaying signs of growing friction between China and Japan—at least outside regional indices. Measures of implied volatility in foreign exchange markets are holding near cycle lows. The euro is trading on a slightly weaker footing after a bloc-wide inflation report showed price growth easing toward...

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17 Dec 2025

Dollar advances in line with firming yields

The dollar is edging higher against most major peers as yields firm in the wake of yesterday’s heavy US data slate. Ten-year Treasury rates have nudged up, equity futures are coming under mild pressure ahead of the North American open, and the Canadian dollar, euro, sterling, and yen are all trading with a softer tone. With no major economic releases on today’s calendar, investors will be focused on remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller—highly influential, and to our knowledge, still in the running as a potential successor to Jerome Powell—which could prove market-moving, particularly if he signals a clear...

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