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CNY

09 Nov 2025

US shutdown impacts showing

• Intra-day swings. More headline driven gyrations on Friday. US equities swung around. USD index a bit softer. NZD on backfoot. AUD a little higher.• US shutdown. Current US gov. shutdown longest in history. Macro impacts starting to show. Pressure on lawmakers to reach a deal is growing.• Event Radar. In Australia the monthly jobs report is due (Thurs). The China data batch is out (Fri). Several US Fed members also set to speak this week. Global Trends Intra-session market gyrations continued at the end of last week with US Government Shutdown newsflow in the driver’s seat. Thanks to a...

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05 Nov 2025

Market mood improves

• Upbeat mood. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities & bond yields ticked up on the back of some positive data. AUD & NZD also rose.• US tariffs. Legality of President Trump’s tariffs is before the US Supreme Court. Market odds of a decision in Pres. Trump’s favour fell overnight.• Data flow. US Government Shutdown still in place. Official stats on hold. Bank of England could cut rates again tonight. US Fed members also speaking. Global Trends Sentiment rebounded overnight with the bout of risk aversion stemming from equity market valuation concerns across the tech/AI sectors fading. These issues remain in...

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04 Nov 2025

Market wobbles return

• Market swings. A bout of risk aversion overnight. Valuation concerns weighed on equities. Bond yields dipped. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground.• RBA hold. No change in rates by RBA yesterday. Updated forecasts & guidance suggest there is a chance no more cuts are delivered, in our view.• US data. US Government Shutdown still in place. Private sector stats in focus. ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. This may generate more vol. Global Trends A burst of “risk off” negative market sentiment has washed through global markets over the past 24hrs. A modestly weak day yesterday in...

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02 Nov 2025

RBA looks set to hold steady

• Upbeat tone. US equities end the week & month on positive footing. USD ticked higher. AUD & NZD drifted back. AUD a bit firmer on a few cross-rates.• RBA meeting. Given CPI RBA expected to hold (Tues). Near-term inflation forecasts to be revised up. Will RBA close the door on more cuts?• Event radar. In addition to the RBA, NZ jobs report due (Weds). In the US, official data may be delayed, so things like ADP employment are in focus. Global Trends It was a relatively quiet end to last week and October with modest net moves across most...

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30 Oct 2025

Price action slows across financial markets as investors digest mixed signals

Financial markets are turning more cautious this morning as traders process the implications of an unexpectedly-divided Federal Reserve decision, news of a tentative trade truce between the US and China, and a mixed slate of earnings from the world’s largest technology firms. The dollar is maintaining yesterday’s advance, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.06 percent after posting their biggest one-day gain since July, shares in Meta and Microsoft are selling off ahead of the open after both companies said they were increasing spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and Alphabet is gaining after it reported a stronger-than-expected performance in its...

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