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CAD

30 Oct 2023

It’s quiet. Too quiet.

It may be the most wonderful time of the fear, but foreign exchange markets remain remarkably calm. 1-month implied volatility – a measure of expected swings in exchange rates – in G7 currency pairs is holding almost a full standard deviation below post-2000 norms, and remains well below comparable indicators in other asset classes. We doubt this can be sustained as geopolitical risks simmer, outcomes diverge across the major economic blocs, and stress grows on the global financial system. We’d try to remind market participants of the ghosts of previous foreign exchange shocks – major moves tend to occur just...

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30 Oct 2023

Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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26 Oct 2023

Price action slows into US growth data and European rate decision

The dollar is rising ahead of data that is likely to show the American economy expanding at a remarkably-aggressive pace in the third quarter, defying widespread expectations for a slowdown. Consensus estimates suggest this morning’s data will show output growing 4.7 percent in the third quarter, but the “whisper” number is considerably higher, nearing the 5 percent mark, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” model is pointing to a 5.4-percent expansion. Anything in this range would serve to highlight the yawning performance gap between the US and its major counterparts, and would mark the latest in a long line of...

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25 Oct 2023

Bank of Canada holds, acknowledges signs of slowdown

As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, warning that “growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures” Officials noted signs of slowing momentum across the economy, saying “Consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services. Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment,” and pointed to a welcome “approaching balance” in overall supply and demand. According to updated forecasts contained in the Monetary Policy Report, the economy is expected to expand 1.2...

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25 Oct 2023

Minding the gap, traders buy the dollar

The dollar remains firm and Treasury yields are ticking higher after yesterday’s sentiment survey data highlighted a yawning performance gap between the American economy and its global counterparts. A series of purchasing manager indices released by S&P Global showed the US as the only major economy remaining in expansionary territory in early October, with composite measures for the euro area, UK, and Japan pointing to further contraction. We’re not sure the dollar will be acting as the only port in the storm for long. Under-the-hood details suggest inflation pressures are now running at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target,...

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