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CAD

20 Feb 2024

AUD recovery continues

• US markets. US equities lost ground, while global trends exerted pressure on US yields. USD generally softer with the AUD’s grind up extending.• Yields fall. Lower Canadian inflation, ‘dovish’ BoE comments, & a cut to China’s 5yr lending rate weighed on global bond yields.• AU wages. Q4 wages released today. Annual growth expected to tick up. Faster wages can keep services inflation high & the RBA on a different path to its peers. A few market gyrations overnight. A pull-back in ‘big tech’ ahead of some earnings announcements dragged the US S&P500 (-0.7%) a little further from its all-time...

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20 Feb 2024

Canadian Inflation Decelerates Sharply in January

Canadian headline inflation decelerated significantly faster than expected in January, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada softened substantially – helping raise odds on an imminent pivot toward easier monetary policy. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in January, down from the 3.4 percent increase recorded in December, and far beneath consensus expectations set closer to 3.3 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices held effectively unchanged – also well below market forecasts for a 0.4 percent gain. Shelter costs provided the...

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20 Feb 2024

Dollar Steadies As Rate Cut Consensus Falters

Markets look set for a consolidative session as North American traders return to their desks after a long weekend. Equity futures are pointing to a modestly-negative open, ten-year Treasuries are yielding 4.27 percent, slightly below Friday’s close, and most major currency pairs are settling into ranges established earlier in the month.  The dollar is up almost 2.5 percent on a year-to-date basis after last week’s higher-than-expected consumer and producer price releases triggered a crisis of confidence among investors who had been betting on an imminent and inexorable easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Overnight index swaps are pointing to 90...

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09 Feb 2024

US Inflation Revisions Are Damp Squib, Canadian Jobs Beat

Revisions to seasonal adjustments used in the US consumer price index helped push bond yields lower and boost equity prices this morning. The annualized change in headline inflation over the last six months of 2024 was reduced by 0.2 percent, while core price growth remained unchanged. This combination should leave monetary policymakers unmoved, but will also alleviate hedging requirements among market participants who had feared a repeat of early-2023’s revisions.  All-items consumer price index, monthly % change The Canadian economy generated more jobs than anticipated in January, but wage growth slowed sharply, helping firm market expectations for an imminent pivot...

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09 Feb 2024

Markets Tread Water Into Inflation Revisions 

Currency market participants are keeping their powder dry ahead of today’s US consumer price index revisions. The dollar is steady, Treasury yields are slightly higher, and equity futures are setting up for an incrementally-stronger open after the S&P 500 index hit a record high in yesterday’s session, briefly broaching the 5,000 mark. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual seasonal revisions are seen nudging measured consumer price index inflation rates up slightly in the latter half of 2023, but markets are wary of the potential for a bigger move. Many investors are still suffering post-traumatic stress disorder after last February’s procedure...

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