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03 Jun 2024

Currency Markets Retreat as Peso Plunges

Markets are on edge ahead of a week littered with event risks. The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are down as traders brace for politically-driven volatility in the Mexican peso, decisions from the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank, and a series of first-tier data releases in the United States, culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The peso is coming down hard as preliminary results show Claudia Sheinbaum, current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s designated successor, on course to win a landslide victory that could give her party the votes needed to remove checks and balances in the...

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02 Jun 2024

Central banks & US jobs in focus this week

• Positive tone. US bond yields lost ground as more US data underwhelmed. This gave US stocks a boost on Friday & exerted pressure on the USD.• AUD moves. AUD edged higher. Domestic & offshore data might generate some intermittent AUD swings this week.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 GDP is due (Weds). Offshore, the BoC (Weds) & ECB (Thurs) could cut rates, while the US jobs report (Fri) will be a focal point. There was a more upbeat tone across markets at the end of last week. US and European equities rose on Friday. The S&P500 outperformed (+0.8%), although this...

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31 May 2024

Cooling US Prices Halt Dollar’s Advance

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in as forecast in April, but underlying price pressures cooled, slightly raising odds on an easing cycle beginning in the autumn months. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent in April from the prior month, matching market forecasts. On a year over year basis, base effects saw core price growth stabilising at 2.8 percent, the same as in March, aligning with economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 0.3 percent from the prior month, 2.7 percent higher...

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31 May 2024

Slowing US Economy Contributes to Downbeat Mood

Bad news is bad news again. Stock markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar all declined yesterday when revised data showed the US economy expanding by less than initially estimated in the first quarter. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.3 annualised rate in the first three months of the year, sharply lower than the 1.6 percent originally calculated, and much slower than than the 3.4-percent pace hit in the last quarter of 2023. An inflation measure was also revised down to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent, and household spending, a critical driver of overall growth, was marked down to 2...

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30 May 2024

Market Retreat Continues as Yields Climb

Worries about a higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve are intersecting with extraordinarily-elevated levels of government bond issuance to drive yields higher, bolstering the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. With ten-year yields climbing across the developed economies, but moving even faster in the United States, the greenback is trading near a two-week peak, and investors are rebalancing away from equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases and hawkish comments from Fed officials, markets are struggling to choke down heavy volumes of bond supply. In comments yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s relatively-centrist President Raphael Bostic said “My outlook is...

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