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CAD

Markets Hold Firm After Cautious Fedspeak

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was disappointingly non-committal on the likelihood of a September rate cut in yesterday’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, explicitly saying “I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions”. The Fed Funds futures curve remained essentially unchanged, with two moves priced in this year, and roughly four expected by June 2025. Dovish hints were there, though, for those determined to find them. In noting that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” saying that labour costs are “not a source of inflationary pressures now,” and emphasising the...

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Markets Rise on Expected Dovish Message from Fed Chair

The dollar is climbing off a nearly one-month low and measures of risk sentiment are improving as traders jostle for position ahead of this morning’s Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Powell is widely expected to adopt a dovish stance, describing a more “balanced” outlook, with downside risks in the labour market beginning to outweigh inflation in driving monetary policy calculations. In prepared comments released ahead of his appearance before the Senate banking committee, the Fed chair is likely to acknowledge signs of slowing momentum in the central bank’s preferred economic indicators, with price growth cooling, consumer spending ebbing,...

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Will Fed Chair Powell rattle markets?

• Quiet markets. Small market moves overnight with reaction to the French election result minimal. Bond yields consolidated. USD a touch firmer.• Fed commentary. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. Will he note the loosening in the jobs market & keep the door open to rate cuts later this year?• AU data. Consumer confidence & business conditions due today. Diverging macro/policy trends in Australia’s favour are AUD supportive. A quiet start to the week with the major asset markets confined to tight ranges. Reaction to the surprise result in the second round of the French parliamentary elections where the leftist alliance...

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Calm Returns as French Election Ends in Stalemate

Foreign exchange rates are settling into narrower trading ranges this morning as political risks ebb and the dollar’s retreat continues. The euro is modestly lower after an alliance of left-wing parties achieved a stunning upset in the French election, making a “hung parliament” – in which no single group can dominate the legislative agenda – the most probable outcome. Defying polls that showed Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National on track toward gaining the biggest delegation in the National Assembly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Socialist Nouveau Front Populaire is leading with 182 seats, with most constituencies counted, followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble...

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Disappointing Jobs Numbers Drive Yields Lower

US labour markets slowed more than expected in June, bolstering market odds on a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by September. On the headline level, the print was positive: according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 206,000 jobs were added in the month, topping the 189,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, down from 0.4 percent in the prior month, and were up 3.9 percent year-over-year. However, revisions to prior months saw overall...

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