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CAD

Canadian Inflation Tumbles, Raising Odds on Larger Rate Cuts

Canadian headline inflation decelerated by more than expected last month, lowering the hurdle to an outsized rate cut at next week’s Bank of Canada meeting. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index decelerating to 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from the 2-percent increase recorded in August and well below consensus expectations that had been set closer to 1.8 percent. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell -0.4 percent. Excluding shelter costs, prices rose just 0.4 percent relative to a year prior. Underlying pressures remained sticky: core inflation, computed as the average of...

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Dollar Treads Water as Oil Prices Slump

The dollar is edging lower this morning as geopolitical concerns ebb, but continues to hold gains achieved over the first two weeks of October, remaining higher against all of its major counterparts excepting the safe-have Swiss franc. Easing expectations fell further in yesterday’s session when Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller clearly indicated a preference for cutting rates in smaller-sized increments. “I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting,” he said, noting that if the current trajectory of inflation and...

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Easing Hopes Unwind Further, Putting Pressure on Currency Markets

The dollar is recovering, ten-year Treasury yields are pushing higher, and risk sentiment is worsening as traders further downgrade odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, forcing investors to brace for a modest tightening in financial conditions. The Canadian dollar is surging on an unexpectedly-strong jobs report, which is also lowering expectations for an accelerated pace of monetary easing in coming months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday reported an unexpectedly-large increase in underlying inflation. The core consumer price index – which excludes food and energy costs – climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month in September, reversing a period of declines...

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Currencies Stall Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are losing momentum as investors brace for this morning’s September consumer price index numbers out of the United States. The dollar is holding steady after racking up an eight-day winning streak, and most of its rivals remain stuck within well-contained trading ranges as questions around the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory continue to dominate price action. With the European Central Bank now expected to slightly outpace its US equivalent in cutting rates this year, the euro is plumbing lows last seen in mid-August, and the British pound is climbing in the opposite direction on bets that the Bank of...

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Diminished Rate Cut Hopes Weigh on Risk Appetite

The dollar is heading toward an eighth day of gains as fixed-income traders pull back on monetary easing expectations and brace for hawkish undercurrents in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding above the 4-percent threshold, North American equity futures are softening on the prospect of renewed antitrust action against Google’s parent company, and most major currencies are stuck in a defensive posture against the almighty greenback. In theory, minutes taken during last month’s Fed meeting should be stale on arrival, but could move markets nonetheless. Policymakers ultimately opted for an outsized half-percentage-point rate cut in...

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