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CAD

30 Apr 2025

US economic tariff pain

• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends point to further RBA interest rate relief in May. Global Trends Despite a deluge of global economic data, particularly out of the US, and a few intra-session bursts of volatility the...

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30 Apr 2025

Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy

A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its rivals through the early part of the week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, North American equity indices are poised for losses at the open, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. The American economy shrank for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter, but the slowdown wasn’t as profound as the headline number would suggest. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product contracted at an annualised -0.3-percent pace...

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29 Apr 2025

Tariff impacts starting to show

• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further moderation in inflation supporting the case for another RBA rate cut in May.• US data. US Q1 GDP due tonight. Leading indicators point to a step down in growth. Will it be as bad as feared? Outcomes vs expectations matter. Global Trends US tariff related headlines continue to generate market gyrations with the overnight newsflow somewhat supporting demand for US financial assets. US equities rose with...

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29 Apr 2025

Easing Trade Tensions Support Dollar, Loonie Languishes on Still-Unknown Election Result

Market sentiment is holding firm this morning as earnings reports come in, the cadence of data releases increases, and trade tensions show further signs of easing. Treasury yields are holding steady, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are up incrementally, and foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed basis with the dollar up against most of its major rivals including the euro and yen. The Canadian dollar is modestly lower after Mark Carney’s Liberal Party achieved a thinner-than-expected margin of victory in yesterday’s close-fought Canadian election, driving whiplash price action within an incredibly-tight trading range. As we go to print,...

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28 Apr 2025

Canadian Dollar Slides as Projections Show Carney’s Liberals Missing Majority

Mark Carney emerged victorious in this evening’s Canadian election – reflecting voter confidence in the Prime Minister’s technocratic background and his commitment to defending the country’s economic sovereignty amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States – but his Liberal Party looks unlikely to achieve a majority, meaning that it will be forced to work with a partner, like the Bloc Quebecois or the New Democratic Party to pass major legislation. An upset is possible, but according to CTV, the early results suggest that the Liberals will fall short of the 172 seats needed to push them over the threshold...

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