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CAD

10 Nov 2024

Hang on for the ride

• Market swings. US equities rose, while widening yield spreads support the USD. AUD slips back after China stimulus underwhelms.• FX trends. The Trump policy mix looks set to keep the USD stronger for longer. We think this will constrain the AUD’s medium-term upside.• Event radar. Locally, wages & monthly jobs report are due. US CPI inflation, retail sales, speech by Fed Chair Powell, & China data also scheduled. Market gyrations continued Friday as the win by President Trump in the US elections (and prospect of a Republican sweep of Congress) is incorporated into people’s projections, central bank actions washed...

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08 Nov 2024

Currency Market Mean Reversion Continues, Weakening Dollar

The “Trump trade” that animated currency markets after Tuesday’s presidential election continues to dissipate this morning. The dollar’s post-election rally is now almost fully unwound, the Mexican peso and its emerging market brethren are broadly higher, and most major currencies – including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen – are either above, or just a few basis points below key psychological levels that could support further upside. Treasury yields are slightly lower after the Federal Reserve kept its options open in yesterday’s decision. Officials cut rates by a quarter percentage point and made semantic modifications to the accompanying statement...

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07 Nov 2024

Trump Trade Eases, Dollar Retreats

Market momentum is fading this morning after investors speed-ran the “Trump trade” in yesterday’s session. The trade-weighted dollar is retreating after recording its best day in more than two years, with the Canadian dollar, euro, pound, and yen all up roughly half a percentage point while the Mexican peso – widely considered a proxy for US isolationism risks – trades above pre-election levels. Treasury yields are easing somewhat, North American equity futures are consolidating gains, and oil prices are weakening. The pound is pushing higher after the Bank of England cut interest rates for a second time but raised its...

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06 Nov 2024

Trump Emerges Victorious, Sending Markets Reeling

Republican Donald Trump has defeated Democrat Kamala Harris to secure a second term as US president. His triumph, called just after 5:45 eastern time this morning by news outlets including the Associated Press, ABC, CNN, and the New York Times, could usher in a new wave of US protectionism, mark a shift toward an “America First” foreign policy stance, and end a period of relative calm in foreign exchange markets. Republicans also took majority control of the Senate, and look* set to retain the House of Representatives, handing Trump the power to enact a wide-ranging and radical policy agenda. He...

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05 Nov 2024

Markets Enter Risk-Aversion Mode Ahead of Election

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are inching higher, and equity indices are setting up for a positive open as the world’s worst reality show enters its final act. Elements of the ‘Trump trade’ are recovering after yesterday’s selloff, with many investors back to betting on the former president after the weekend’s polls suggested that markets were underestimating Kamala Harris’ electoral chances. There are other event risks to consider. The Bank of England is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday morning, with traders paying particular attention to how policymakers describe the impact of last week’s budget...

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