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CAD

Market Wire: Bank of Canada surprises with a bigger and more dovish hike than expected

The Bank of Canada lifted its benchmark overnight rate by half a percentage point to 4.25 percent this morning, while telegraphing an imminent pause in its monetary tightening cycle. The decision surprised markets that had anticipated a smaller quarter point move – but softened the blow by lowering expectations further out. In the statement accompanying the decision, the central bank said “growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand,” observing that “Canada’s labour market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows”. Signs of a slowdown were flagged: “While commodity exports...

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Market Briefing: Trading ranges narrow as inflation fears ebb

Currency markets are becalmed, with bond yields and interest differentials trading within remarkably-tight ranges as central bank policy trajectories become – seemingly – more predictable. Yields in the major economies moved less than two basis points over the course of yesterday’s session, marking a big departure from the dramatic moves seen earlier in the year. The euro is almost-imperceptibly higher after Eurostat said the economy expanded slightly more than previously estimated in the third quarter.Gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent between July and September, beating the 0.2 percent initial estimate as fixed capital investment and household consumption helped offset an...

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Market Briefing: Markets stay defensive after hotter-than-expected services data

The Institute for Supply Management said yesterday that its service sector index climbed in November from the month before, providing more evidence of resilience in the American economy. The measure ticked up to 56.5 from October’s 54.4, remaining well above 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction. Investors reacted badly, boosting bets on more hikes from the Federal Reserve, buying the dollar, and selling risk-sensitive currencies en masse. Markets look rudderless this morning, with the greenback holding ground as the other majors turn in a mixed performance. Yields are stable after yesterday’s jump, and equity futures are pointing to a...

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Market Briefing: Year-end rebalancing flows weigh on dollar into quiet data week

The dollar continues to lose altitude as market participants gradually rebalance portfolios ahead of a new calendar year. With US economic outperformance fading, the Federal Reserve expected to slow and then pause its tightening cycle, energy prices falling, and geopolitical shocks fading, many investors have become less willing to crowd into long-greenback positions, and demand for alternatives is growing. Oil prices are steady even after the Group of Seven industrialized democracies agreed to cap shipments of Russian crude at $60 a barrel. Under the plan, Western companies will be barred from insuring, financing, or shipping Russian oil unless it is...

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Market Wire: Strong jobs reports bolster rate bets

263,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged – suggesting that the labour market remains too tight for the Federal Reserve’s liking. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in November, and the participation rate moved down to 62.1 percent from 62.3 in the prior month, indicating that fewer workers are coming off the sidelines. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent month-over-month, accelerating from the pace set in October. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 200,000-job gain,...

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