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CAD

Strong jobs reports bolster rate bets

223,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, and the unemployment rate fell further – giving the Federal Reserve further motivation to raise rates. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent in December, and the participation rate moved up to 62.3 percent from 62.1 in the prior month, indicating that some workers are coming off the sidelines. Average hourly earnings rose 4.6 percent year-over-year, slower than expected, but still well beyond levels that would suggest inflation pressures have receded. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned...

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Dollar rises as markets brace for strong jobs number

The dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders buy insurance against another strong jobs report. Economists think US non-farm payrolls, out at 8:30, will rise by 200,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent. The “whisper number” on Wall Street appears closely aligned, with most market participants prepared for a print between 150,000 and 250,000 that keeps the Federal Reserve on a tightening trajectory – suggesting that a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news dynamic could hit the greenback in the minutes after the release. The Canadian dollar remains on a defensive footing even as Statistics Canada...

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Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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Market Wire: Resilient North American Data Keeps Tightening Expectations Alive, Weighing on Risk Appetites

American households slowed spending last month but the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exceeded expectations, bolstering the case for continued tightening in 2023. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays were unchanged in November, decelerating sharply from the 0.5-percent gain posted in the prior month. Markets had expected a print closer to 0.2 percent. Personal income rose 0.4 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.5-percent increase in private sector wages and salaries. Incomes are 4.7 percent higher relative to the same month last year. The core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the...

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Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of 2023’s Last Data Releases

‘Tis the day before the night before Christmas, and all through the markets, not a trader is stirring, not even one with a mouse. Trading ranges are narrow and volumes are down after better-than-forecast economic data triggered a selloff during yesterday’s session, lifting the dollar and crushing nascent rallies in risk-sensitive currencies. Upward revisions in consumer spending and business investment categories lifted third quarter gross domestic product to 3.2 percent annualized, up from the previously-reported 2.9 percent, and the number of jobless claims came in below economist estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are not delivering the...

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