Chartbook: February 27
Slides from this week’s internal trading call:
CAD
Capitulation
Markets have given up on trying to fight the Fed. Yields and the dollar remain well-supported after Friday’s date showed the central bank’s preferred inflation measure accelerating in January, suggesting policymakers will have to move more aggressively to cool aggregate demand in the months ahead. The core personal consumption expenditures price index climbed 4.7 percent from a year earlier, up slightly from December as consumer spending jumped 1.8 percent month over month. This pushed market-implied terminal rate expectations above the 5.5 percent threshold, with back-to-back quarter-point hikes expected at the next three meetings. If historical price dynamics are any indication,...
Looming Inflation Data Reinforces Market Caution
Risk appetites and trading ranges remain subdued across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for an inflation report that could show the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts are having little effect on underlying price pressures – or on overall aggregate demand. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure will land in less than half an hour, with markets prepared to see more evidence of overheating. Economists think the headline headline personal consumption expenditures deflator rose 0.5 percent month-on-month, with the annual rate holding at 5 percent. Consumer spending is seen increasing 1.4 percent from the prior month, and personal...
Markets Enter Winter Freeze After Fed Minutes
Markets are struggling to dig themselves out of the snow this morning as a steady tightening in financial conditions threatens to cool global demand growth and weigh on corporate earnings. Yields inched higher and the dollar climbed after a record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting at the beginning of the month, released yesterday, showed a “few” non-voters lobbying for a half-percentage-point interest rate hike, even as a quarter-point move garnered unanimous support from the core group. According to the minutes, “A number of participants observed that a policy stance that proved to be insufficiently restrictive could halt recent progress...
Fire. Aim. Ready.
Investors are in a “sell first, ask questions later” kind of mood. Bond and equity markets suffered their worst day of the year yesterday amid speculation we have arrived at a “good as it gets” moment for the US economy, and risk aversion remains well entrenched – the dollar and yen are outperforming their rivals on safe-haven demand, commodity prices are down, and yields are up sharply. Consumer bellwethers Home Depot and Walmart issued disappointing outlooks, suggesting that prices could continue to increase even as sales volumes fall through the remainder of the year. Home Depot projected flat revenues for...