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CAD

08 Mar 2023

Bank of Canada Holds Rates, Loonie Tumbles as Forward Guidance Remains Dovish

Following through on a well-telegraphed pledge to hold policy steady, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 4.50 percent this morning, and reiterated a “conditional” commitment to staying the course. The statement-only decision was not accompanied by new forecasts, but officials said “the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation will come down to around 3 percent in the middle of this year. Year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5 percent, and 3-month measures are around 3½ percent. Both will need to come down further, as...

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08 Mar 2023

Bigger, Faster… Wronger?

Markets continue to brace for bigger and faster rate hikes from the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell appeared to reverse earlier optimism about an ongoing “disinflationary process” during yesterday’s Senate testimony. Market-implied odds on a half percentage point move at the March meeting moves above 70-percent in the hours after the Fed chair’s appearance, and have barely subsided since. The two-year Treasury yield is holding above 5 percent for the first time since 2007, the dollar is trading higher, and most majors remain on the defensive. “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the...

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07 Mar 2023

Pre-Powell Caution Fades

The dollar is back on the defensive, yields are slipping, and equity futures are climbing as market participants bet that risks associated with today’s Federal Reserve Congressional testimony are largely priced in. Commodity-linked currencies are up slightly in a modest reversal from yesterday’s China-related selloff, while safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc are seeing softer demand. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate for a tenth consecutive time, but dropped a reference to further increases, hinting only that “further tightening” would be needed. Australian rates have climbed a cumulative 350 basis points since last May, and...

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06 Mar 2023

Currencies Stabilize As Pivotal Week Begins

Investors are bracing for a momentous week, with Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, three major central bank meetings, and the February non-farm payrolls report combining to set the stage for erratic price action in currency markets. The dollar is climbing, yields are ticking lower, and the euro and pound are tightly rangebound. Commodity-linked currencies sold off over the weekend as China’s leadership unveiled a more cautious growth agenda than had been expected. Work documents released during the National Party Congress outlined plans to increase state outlays and expand the budget deficit, but Beijing set its headline gross domestic product target at...

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