Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

CAD

Weekly Update

The direction and magnitude of changes in euro area core producer price indices have tended to lead the core consumer price index by 6 to 9 months. A sharp easing in price pressures looks likely in coming months. Euro area inflation is (probably) headed down. Price indices, % annual change Inflation pressures – as measured using the New York Fed’s “Underlying Inflation Gauge” are trending solidly downward, suggesting that relief could come in the next few months, even if May’s data remains elevated. US inflation could come down even faster. Personal Consumption Expenditures indices and Underlying Inflation Gauges, % annual...

Read More Read More

Veni, Vidi, Retreat-y

This weekend’s baffling march on Moscow by the Wagner Group of mercenaries ended without any appreciable impact on global energy prices or broader financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged, equity futures look incrementally softer, and the VIX “fear index” is holding near Friday’s post-pandemic lows. The yen is modestly stronger after Japanese officials stepped up currency jawboning efforts last night, with Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, warning that exchange rate moves had become “one-sided” and that he wouldn’t “rule out any options” in dealing with it – language that has...

Read More Read More

Risk appetite falls on accumulating evidence of global economic slowdown

The dollar is staging a broad-based recovery this morning after a raft of purchasing manager surveys showed activity slowing sharply across a range of global economies. Data published by S&P this morning provided evidence of decelerating growth in Australia, Japan, the UK and the euro area, with the all-important services sector joining manufacturing in showing signs of strain in every major country. In the euro area, the headline purchasing manager index dropped to 50.3 in June from 52.5 in the prior month, narrowly avoiding contraction and hitting a five-month low as the strike-plagued French economy deteriorated and the German factory sector remained depressed. European yields fell...

Read More Read More

Markets weaken as Bank of England delivers another hawkish surprise

The British pound is consolidating gains after the Bank of England joined its Commonwealth counterparts in wrongfooting markets with a bigger-than-expected half-point hike at this morning’s meeting. Responding to “material news” of an acceleration in wages and consumer prices, the Monetary Policy Committee voted seven to two in favour of raising rates to the highest levels since 2008, with Governor Bailey saying “Bringing inflation down is our absolute priority”. From today’s 5 percent, traders now expect the Bank Rate to peak above 6 percent in early 2024. This should, in theory, generate a lot of carry support for the pound – speculators...

Read More Read More

Markets retreat ahead of Powell testimony

In a return to the “good news is bad news” dynamic that drove price action through the post-global financial crisis years, markets are back in risk-off mode this morning. Data out yesterday showed US housing starts jumped in May by the most since 2016, providing more evidence of underlying resilience in the world’s largest economy – while also making additional rate hikes more likely. The dollar is higher, yields are flat, and commodity-linked currencies are down across the board. Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a hawkish message when he appears in front of the House Financial Services Committee this morning. Last week’s “dot...

Read More Read More