Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

CAD

Slippery relationships

Expectations for more tightening from the Bank of Canada have shot up since this morning’s hotter-than-anticipated inflation report, with at least one hike priced in by the March meeting in early 2024. The loonie has jumped even more aggressively, reflecting oversold conditions going into the release (which were arguably reinforced by the psychological bias known as “round number anchoring” around the 1.35 mark) and a supportive oil-price backdrop. But don’t expect the effect to last.  For much of the last few decades, the Canadian dollar seemed to act like a “petro-loonie”, with oil prices playing a big role in driving...

Read More Read More

Canadian inflation accelerates, shaking bets on policy hold

Canadian inflation accelerated in August, but gasoline prices drove much of the gain and many underlying price indicators continued to soften, helping ratify the Bank of Canada’s cautiously hawkish, data-dependent stance. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 4 percent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from the 3.3 percent increase recorded in July, and slightly above consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the change climbed to 0.4 percent – beating market forecasts that had been set closer to the 0.2 percent mark. Gasoline prices rose 4.6 percent month-over-month, and the energy sub-index...

Read More Read More

Volatility crumples into central bank deluge

Measures of market turbulence are falling ahead of a slew of central bank decisions, suggesting that investors feel confident in rates nearing a peak for the current cycle. Over the coming days, the Federal Reserve is expected to stay on hold and adjust its “dot plot” projections to show rates remaining high for longer. Another hike from the Bank of England is narrowly favoured in fixed-income markets, but growing signs of economic weakness could push the vote and accompanying statement in a more dovish direction. The Bank of Japan is considered unlikely to change its policy settings, with traders instead...

Read More Read More

Risk appetite falls into heavy week

Currency traders are squaring their positions this morning ahead of a series of potentially market-moving data releases and policy decisions in the coming days. The dollar is inching lower, two-year yields are holding above the 5-percent threshold, and equity futures are setting up for a softer session. The subdued open comes after a week in which Treasury yields snapped higher, stocks fell, and the greenback broke an extended winning streak. With August core consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales all coming in hot, investors began to lose hope in a rapid pivot toward looser monetary policy from the Federal...

Read More Read More