Slippery relationships
Expectations for more tightening from the Bank of Canada have shot up since this morning’s hotter-than-anticipated inflation report, with at least one hike priced in by the March meeting in early 2024. The loonie has jumped even more aggressively, reflecting oversold conditions going into the release (which were arguably reinforced by the psychological bias known as “round number anchoring” around the 1.35 mark) and a supportive oil-price backdrop. But don’t expect the effect to last. For much of the last few decades, the Canadian dollar seemed to act like a “petro-loonie”, with oil prices playing a big role in driving...