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CAD

11 Aug 2023

Rebounding producer prices lift the dollar

The dollar is set to end the week on a slightly stronger note after July’s producer price report solidified expectations for a continued hawkish bias from Federal Reserve policymakers – even as other indicators point toward a cooling in inflation pressures. Yields are modestly higher across the front end of the Treasury curve, equities are seeing outflows, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars – along with the Mexican peso – are inching lower against the greenback. North America US producer prices climbed more than expected in July, putting pressure on policymakers to avoid sending the “all clear”...

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10 Aug 2023

Softer US inflation sends dollar lower

Markets are doubling down on “soft landing” bets this morning after US consumer inflation slowed as expected, reducing the need for further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Equity futures are up, Treasury yields are down slightly on the front end of the curve, and the dollar is slipping ahead of the North American open. North America Headline consumer prices rose 3.2 percent in July from the same period last year according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the the 3.3 percent and 0.2...

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08 Aug 2023

History doesn’t repeat, but…

“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes”. Based on our analysis of seasonal performance this statement seems to hold true for several currencies and other important financial markets. For the aficionados although we found no ‘stable statistical seasonality’, there seems to be a lot of ‘coincidence’ as a variety of things such as production and trade trends, financial year end related flows, asset allocation changes, and/or thinner liquidity conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer or Christmas period compound or counteract unfolding macroeconomic developments. Our Seasonality Heatmaps, provided at the bottom of this note, illustrate the average monthly performance of...

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28 Jul 2023

Strong consumer demand and softening inflation bolster US “soft landing” hopes

With American households honouring their time-honoured role in acting as global consumers-of-last-resort and inflation pressures continuing to subside, financial markets are seeing a broad-based rise in risk-taking activity this morning. Equity futures are pointing to a strong open, the dollar is ticking lower, and high-beta currencies are outperforming after a raft of softer inflation data added to yesterday’s strong second-quarter growth print in suggesting that the US economy is shrugging off the impact of higher rates – and could continue to power global growth in the months to come. The yen is up modestly and global yields are higher after the...

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27 Jul 2023

Dollar pushes higher on US exceptionalism in growth and rates

The euro is weakening against the dollar after the European Central Bank executed an (arguably) dovish rate hike and updated numbers showed the US economy growing more quickly than expected in the second quarter. High-beta currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars and the Mexican peso are up, while other risk proxies – like the VIX equity “fear index” and the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) bond market measure – are trending down as markets buy into a “Goldilocks” scenario for the economy, with growth remaining relatively robust even as inflation pressures subside.   North America The US economy expanded...

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