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CAD

18 Sep 2023

Risk appetite falls into heavy week

Currency traders are squaring their positions this morning ahead of a series of potentially market-moving data releases and policy decisions in the coming days. The dollar is inching lower, two-year yields are holding above the 5-percent threshold, and equity futures are setting up for a softer session. The subdued open comes after a week in which Treasury yields snapped higher, stocks fell, and the greenback broke an extended winning streak. With August core consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales all coming in hot, investors began to lose hope in a rapid pivot toward looser monetary policy from the Federal...

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15 Sep 2023

Markets steady ahead of major central bank meetings

Hopes for a “soft landing” in the US economy are still intact after yesterday’s data showed unemployment claims falling and “control group” retail sales continuing to rise – suggesting that consumer demand remains remarkably strong. The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are moving higher. Equity futures are down as investors worry about the impact of strikes at the Big Three automakers Chinese consumer spending and factory activity levels showed improvement in August, and unemployment fell, suggesting that the economy’s downturn is bottoming out. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics last night showed retail sales rising 4.6 percent...

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14 Sep 2023

Currency volatility falls after US inflation fails to surprise

A flurry of action after yesterday’s release of the August consumer price report ultimately left currency and fixed-income markets largely unmoved. The dollar is flat and front-end yields are edging up. Measures of implied volatility in the equity and currency markets are plumbing seasonal lows. Both the headline and core price indices accelerated somewhat as Saudi-led output cuts lifted oil prices and transportation services costs, but underlying inflation stayed at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, keeping policy expectations essentially unchanged. The central bank is still seen staying on hold next week, tightening again in November, and beginning...

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12 Sep 2023

Shock and awwww….

Oil prices have risen more than $20 from their lows earlier this year and US gasoline prices have jumped, raising fears of another seventies-style “energy shock” that weakens the economy and forces the Federal Reserve into further monetary tightening. Higher energy costs certainly could add to other factors – ebbing excess savings, student loan repayments, and slowing wage growth – in slowing consumer spending, particularly near the bottom of the US income distribution. But when we put oil prices in real terms – adjusting them for the rate of overall inflation over time – it is clear that today’s surge...

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12 Sep 2023

Markets flat-line into US inflation report

Currency traders are so bored, they’re working just to pass the time this morning. Foreign exchange market ranges remain remarkably tight ahead of tomorrow’s US consumer inflation report, equity futures are pointing toward an incrementally-softer open, and Treasury yields are inching lower into what could be a news-light trading day. The pound is holding below the psychologically-important 1.25 threshold against the dollar after British wage growth stayed hot in the three months through July – making a compelling case for more Bank of England tightening – even as the broader labour market showed signs of easing, suggesting that a growth...

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