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CAD

Soft Landing Bets Remain Dominant Ahead of Inflation Data

The trade-weighted dollar is coming under renewed selling pressure this morning after last week’s events helped fortify expectations for a “soft landing” in the US economy. On Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve was “not far” from the level of confidence needed to cut rates. Friday’s jobs report showed headline job growth topping expectations, but revisions to the prior two months pointed to cooling momentum, and average hourly earnings saw their smallest month-on-month rise in two years. The pound and euro are defending last week’s advances in tight trading ranges. Sterling’s rally is losing...

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Job Creation Beats Estimates, But Underlying Momentum Slows

The US job creation engine slowed in February, and revisions subtracted heavily from the prior two months – but still managed to generate far more jobs than expected. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 275,000 jobs were added, but the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9 percent as the labour force expanded, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent month-over-month, missing market expectations. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 200,000-job gain, the unemployment rate was seen holding steady at 3.7 percent, and earnings were expected to rise 0.2 percent.  Revisions subtracted...

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Dollar’s Fade Continues Ahead of Jobs Numbers

The dollar is stuck in a defensive posture after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sounded slightly more dovish in his second day of Congressional testimony yesterday. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2 percent,” he told the Senate Banking Committee. “When we do get that confidence – and we’re not far from it – it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restrictiveness”. This morning’s non-farm payrolls number could make or break the dollar’s decline. Expectations for the headline jobs gain have crept above the 200,000 mark this week, but the...

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Dollar Slumps On Diminishing Tail Risks 

In yesterday’s Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect rates to begin coming down in the near term, but acknowledged the need to “begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year,” and said that central bankers remain “squarely focused” on their dual mandate. Market participants – who had been alert to the possibility of a pushback against easing financial conditions – breathed a sigh of relief, sending yields and the dollar lower for a fifth consecutive session. Broadly speaking, softer data releases and consistent messaging from Fed officials over the last week have...

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Bank of Canada Stays On Hold Amid “Uneven” Inflation Progress

As had been almost universally-expected, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark overnight rate unchanged this morning, but language in Governor Macklem’s statement tilted in a slightly more hawkish direction than market participants had anticipated, helping to boost the exchange rate. In prepared remarks released ahead of the post-decision press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said “Today’s decision reflects Governing Council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5 percent remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate”. “Looking ahead, we continue to expect inflation will be close to 3 percent through the middle of the year...

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