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CAD

Markets see clouds in the US economy’s silver lining

“In the beginning the Universe was created,” said Douglas Adams in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. “This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move”. Markets seem to be taking a similar view on yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated US retail sales report, with an aversion to risk becoming more pronounced as investors grapple with the prospect of higher long-term rates. The dollar is holding its gains and equity futures are setting up for a weaker open even as two- and ten-year Treasury yields fade from their highs. Risk-sensitive units like the Australian and...

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Under pressure

• Mixed signals. Weak China data & positive surprises in US retail sales, Canadian inflation, & UK wages has rattled market nerves.• Negative vibes. The deluge of data has seen US/European bond yields rise & equity markets fall. USD remains firm. AUD touched another 2023 low.• Upcoming events. No change expected from the RBNZ today. UK CPI, US housing & production data, & the FOMC meeting minutes also due. It has been a busy 24hrs with markets digesting a deluge of data. There were mostly positive surprises with activity and/or inflation metrics generally coming in hotter than expected, though China...

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US consumer spending rebounds, supporting yields and the dollar

The dollar is up and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat as benchmark Treasury yields near the highest levels in almost 15 years on stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers. North America US retail spending jumped by more than forecast last month as underlying consumer demand remained strong, keeping monetary tightening expectations aloft. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants climbed 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in July, beating consensus estimates closer to 0.4 percent and rising 3.2 percent over a year prior. Gas station sales climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month as...

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Price action turns choppy on higher yields and Chinese contagion fears

The dollar is little changed after a series of data releases intersected with oil price gains last week to push long-term yields slightly higher – even as expectations for a pause at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting remained intact. More broadly, risk appetite remains relatively subdued and commodity-linked currencies are softening as troubles in the Chinese property sector keep global demand expectations under pressure and drive raw materials prices modestly lower. North America Tomorrow’s retail sales report looms as the next potential catalyst for dollar moves, with major uncertainties remaining around the durability of consumer spending in the world’s largest...

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Rebounding producer prices lift the dollar

The dollar is set to end the week on a slightly stronger note after July’s producer price report solidified expectations for a continued hawkish bias from Federal Reserve policymakers – even as other indicators point toward a cooling in inflation pressures. Yields are modestly higher across the front end of the Treasury curve, equities are seeing outflows, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars – along with the Mexican peso – are inching lower against the greenback. North America US producer prices climbed more than expected in July, putting pressure on policymakers to avoid sending the “all clear”...

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