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CAD

20 Apr 2026

Markets stumble as Iran conflict reignites

Good morning. The dollar is inching higher and risk appetite is faltering after Tehran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while the US maintained its blockade of Iranian ports and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, casting doubt on market expectations for an imminent peace deal. Global oil prices are back up, bond yields are pushing higher, equities are setting up to snap a five-day winning streak, and currency markets are broadly in risk-off mode, with the safe-haven Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and dollar generally outperforming their commodity-sensitive counterparts. But bullish dollar positioning could have further to unwind. According to...

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19 Apr 2026

Open, Shut Them

• Ongoing uncertainty. Weekend news the Strait of Hormuz has been closed dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer. AUD gives back some ground.• Volatile situation. More twists & turns likely. Impact on global economy still in its infancy. Q1 NZ CPI due (Tues). Global PMIs also out this week (Thurs). Global TrendsMiddle East related events have remained in the driver’s seat with the unfolding situation generating bursts of volatility. Risk sentiment was upbeat at the end of last week due to news the Strait of Hormuz had re-opened to commercial traffic. On Friday the US S&P500 (+1.2%) reached a fresh...

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16 Apr 2026

Optimism reigns across financial markets, weighing on the dollar

Good morning. Financial markets are in an ebullient mood as investors bet the US and Iran will reach a peace deal in the coming weeks, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and relieving the supply shock battering global commodity flows. Although Washington and Tehran are still blockading global shipping and energy shortages are worsening by the day, mediators from Pakistan and the Gulf countries are reportedly working on an extension to last week’s ceasefire, which expires on Tuesday, and are moving closer to arranging another round of talks. North American equity indices are flirting with record highs, Treasury yields...

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14 Apr 2026

Hopes & dreams

• Positive vibes. Markets hopeful another round of US/Iran talks yield positive results. Oil lower, equities higher. USD weaker. AUD at multi-week high.• Macro pulse. IMF downgraded global outlook. Australian business & consumer confidence tumbled. Conflict casting a long shadow over world economy. Global Trends Short-term sentiment driven markets have been in ‘glass half full’ mode overnight. Investors looked through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and lasered in on the prospect of another round of talks between the US and Iran, with reports suggesting they could be held over coming days. The current ceasefire is due to expire...

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14 Apr 2026

Diplomacy hopes drive dollar lower

Good morning. Financial markets are rallying on hopes for a renewal of diplomatic engagement in the Middle East, with some media outlets reporting that US and Iranian negotiating teams could return to Islamabad for talks later this week. Oil prices are retreating, Treasury yields are coming under renewed pressure, equity markets are setting up for a positive open, and most major foreign exchange pairs are trading at or above key technical levels against the dollar. The euro is flirting with 1.18, the pound is holding above 1.35, the Canadian dollar is back in the 1.37s, and even the yen is...

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