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CAD

09 Jul 2025

Tariff pen pals

• Holding on. US sends out more tariff letters. Equities unfazed with S&P500 pushing higher. Bond yields dip. USD consolidated. AUD range-bound.• RBNZ steady. RBNZ on hold. But underlying tone & outlook still points to a bit more easing over coming months. This should act as a NZD handbrake.• AUD trends. AUD hovering near top end of its multi-month range. We think the risks of a USD rebound / AUD pull-back are starting to build. Global Trends Outside of a few more tariff letters being sent out by the US, news flow was light overnight and there were few economic...

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09 Jul 2025

Currency Traders Yawn As Tariff Threats Continue

Currency markets remain firmly rangebound even after President Donald Trump warned “no extensions will be granted” to his August 1 tariff date, threatened to raise levies on copper and pharmaceutical imports to 50 percent and 200 percent, respectively, and said at least seven additional countries would receive updated trade letters this morning, with the European Union getting one in two days. Stock futures are little changed, Treasury yields are flat, and US copper futures are holding around 10 percent higher after punching upward in yesterday’s session. The dollar climbed earlier in the week when Trump postponed the rollout of his...

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08 Jul 2025

Trump’s Tariff Letters Leave Markets Largely Unmoved

The dollar is losing altitude once again after Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with a fresh round of tariff threats, unsettling global markets and complicating the outlook for monetary policy. Trump sent letters to 14 countries last night—including close allies and key trading partners Japan and South Korea—threatening them with the reimposition of tariffs from August 1, and more are expected today. The greenback is sitting on losses equivalent to roughly half of yesterday’s gain, Treasury yields are up across the curve, equity futures are pushing lower ahead of the open, and the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and euro are...

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07 Jul 2025

Markets Trade Sideways As Trade Uncertainties Loom

The dollar is holding near a three-year low and measures of risk appetite are pointing to subdued trading action after the Trump administration seemingly extended its tariff deadline to August 1—reducing fears of a violent selloff around Wednesday’s original drop-dead date. Measures of trade policy uncertainty* have fallen sharply from their heights. At an event dubbed “Liberation Day” in early April, President Trump said imports from most countries would become subject to a 10 percent baseline tariff rate, and additional “reciprocal” levies—some ranging as high as 50 percent—would be applied against those running large trade imbalances with the US. However,...

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03 Jul 2025

Jobs boost

• Upbeat tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD edged up overnight. EUR eased back, as did NZD & AUD, though they remain at high levels.• US data. US jobs report a bit better than expected. But topline result masks some pockets of weakness under the hood. Private payrolls were soft.• Event radar. US on holiday tonight. Next week RBA & RBNZ meet. RBA expected to cut rates. US’ ‘pause’ on higher tariffs also due to end. Global Trends Ahead of tonight’s US Independence Day holiday US equities extended their upswing, bond yields rose, and the USD recouped a...

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