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CAD

Currencies settle in for a long winter’s nap 

Consolidative price action is taking place across financial markets this morning as risk appetite improves ahead of next week’s all-important Federal Reserve meeting. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm around the 4.11-percent handle, the dollar is trading sideways, and equity futures are setting for a continuation of an almost two week-long Santa Claus rally. Most major currencies are looking technically stretched against the dollar, with many trading beyond moving averages and Bollinger Band levels. The US economy is still delivering contradictory signals. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan, continues to deteriorate even...

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Fed easing bets drive dollar lower

The dollar is cruising toward an eighth consecutive day of losses—its longest losing streak since 2020—as the Japanese yen climbs and traders double down on expectations for an aggressive easing campaign from the Federal Reserve. Japanese ten-year yields are holding near their highest levels since the global financial crisis and rate differentials are tightening in the yen’s favour after Bloomberg reported that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government wouldn’t oppose a rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s meeting on December 19. Odds on a hike have climbed to 89 percent from less than 17 percent in late November after Governor...

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RBA & US Fed divergence

• US data. Weaker US ADP employment reinforced US Fed rate cut bets. US equities ticked up & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD supported.• AU GDP. Topline growth a bit softer than anticipated in Q3, but under the hood private sector momentum picked up speed. Price pressures still evident.• RBA & Fed. Odds next move by RBA is up not down continue to rise. By contrast, a series of US Fed cuts are anticipated over the next year. Global Trends It was a case of “bad US economic news is good news for markets” overnight. More signs growth...

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AU growth & US ADP employment in focus

• Positive tone. Limited news flow. Upbeat market vibes continue. US equities rose again. Cyclical currencies like the AUD & NZD ticked up further.• AU GDP. Australian Q3 growth data out today. Partial indicators point to solid private sector activity. This may bolster the case for no more RBA rate cuts.• US data. ADP employment & services ISM out tonight. ADP is last major jobs report before next US Fed meeting. It could generate some USD volatility. Global Trends Modest moves across markets over the past 24hrs, though the underlying tone has remained upbeat. News flow has been limited, but...

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Santa Claws selloff abates

The slow-motion flight to safety that began on the weekend is showing signs of exhaustion in currency markets this morning, but sentiment remains fragile. Japanese government bond yields are stabilising after a hawkish speech from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda triggered a selloff in yesterday’s session, and rates are edging down across most advanced-economy debt markets. Benchmark ten-year US Treasury yields are holding firm after an eight-basis-point jump, equity futures are reversing higher, cryptocurrencies are slowing their decline, and the dollar is trading sideways as participants keep a wary eye on the exits. Calm should return. The weekend’s bringing-forward...

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