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CAD

Fundamental drivers reassert themselves in currency markets

Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese yen becoming a key focal point ahead of a potential snap election. Equity futures are setting up for a negative open after modest losses in yesterday’s session, Treasury yields are holding firm across the curve, and the dollar is trading almost imperceptibly lower against a basket of its major counterparts. American consumers continued to engage in retail therapy in November. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning,...

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Tame inflation weighs on the dollar

Consumer price growth accelerated by slightly less than expected in the United States last month, helping lower short-term yields and putting downward pressure on the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in December from the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent over the same period a year prior. This narrowly missed consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, and were up 2.7...

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Noise vs Signal

• Headline noise. Markets continue to take geopolitical/macro developments in stride. US equities rose overnight. AUD ticked higher.• US Fed. Investigation into Fed Chair Powell raises concerns about central bank independence. US CPI out tonight. US retail sales due later this week.• AU data. Household spending firmer than expected. AU jobs data (22 Jan) & Q4 CPI (28 Jan) important for RBA. A February rate hike is ~30% priced in. Global Trends A few geopolitical and economic crosscurrents such as developments in Venezuela and some US data have generated modest bursts of intermittent volatility over the past few weeks. But...

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‘Sell America’ trade returns, albeit in modest form

The US dollar, Treasuries, and stock market indices are all trading slightly lower this morning after the Trump administration stepped up its assault on the Federal Reserve, launching a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell’s management of a headquarters renovation project. According to a highly unusual video statement published last night, the Chair said he had received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department that threaten a criminal indictment in a case that most market participants see as part of an effort to reduce the Fed’s independence and push monetary policy into more accommodative territory. “This is about whether the...

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Fall in US unemployment rate boosts dollar

The US economy generated fewer jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate declined last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of monetary easing over the course of 2026. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 50,000 jobs were added in December, undershooting a consensus forecast set around the 70,000 mark, and the previous two months were revised down by 76,000 positions. On a full-year basis, the economy added an average 48,600 jobs per month, marking the worst performance outside the early-aughts dot-com collapse or a recession in the last 25 years. The unemployment rate—arguably the most...

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