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CAD

AU growth & US ADP employment in focus

• Positive tone. Limited news flow. Upbeat market vibes continue. US equities rose again. Cyclical currencies like the AUD & NZD ticked up further.• AU GDP. Australian Q3 growth data out today. Partial indicators point to solid private sector activity. This may bolster the case for no more RBA rate cuts.• US data. ADP employment & services ISM out tonight. ADP is last major jobs report before next US Fed meeting. It could generate some USD volatility. Global Trends Modest moves across markets over the past 24hrs, though the underlying tone has remained upbeat. News flow has been limited, but...

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Santa Claws selloff abates

The slow-motion flight to safety that began on the weekend is showing signs of exhaustion in currency markets this morning, but sentiment remains fragile. Japanese government bond yields are stabilising after a hawkish speech from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda triggered a selloff in yesterday’s session, and rates are edging down across most advanced-economy debt markets. Benchmark ten-year US Treasury yields are holding firm after an eight-basis-point jump, equity futures are reversing higher, cryptocurrencies are slowing their decline, and the dollar is trading sideways as participants keep a wary eye on the exits. Calm should return. The weekend’s bringing-forward...

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Hawkish Japanese policy rhetoric destabilises currency markets

Financial markets are kicking off December in a turbulent fashion as policy tightening hints from the Bank of Japan nudge global rates higher and dull the dollar’s appeal. Ten-year Treasury yields are up nearly four basis points, equity futures are pointing to small early declines, and the greenback is slipping against a broad basket of peers ahead of the North American open. The yen is outperforming its counterparts after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda appeared to lay the groundwork for a December rate hike. The currency advanced as much as 0.6 percent against the dollar this morning when Ueda...

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Shifting interest rate expectations

• Positive trends. Risk sentiment remained positive on Friday. US & European equities rose, as did cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD.• AU/NZ factors. After last week’s AU CPI & signals from the RBNZ, markets are toying with the idea the next move in AU & NZ rates may be up not down.• Event Radar. Australia Q3 GDP is out (Weds). In the US, focus should be on the ISM indices, ADP employment, & other labour market indicators. Global Trends It was a quiet end to last week (and November) with the US Thanksgiving Holiday period depressing trading activity....

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RBNZ & AU CPI in focus

• Upbeat vibes. US equities rose while bond yields dipped. USD softer. Run of weak US data supported the case for another US Fed rate cut in December.• RBNZ meeting. NZD ticks up ahead of RBNZ decision. Another cut expected with markets looking for a 25bp move. Is the easing cycle almost over?• AU CPI. First full monthly CPI report out. Data could be volatile the next few months. Will it reinforce the case for the RBA to hold steady from here? Global Trends The more upbeat sentiment across markets continued overnight with a mix of macro and geopolitical news...

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