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03 Nov 2026

Dollar weakens as Democrats head for blue sweep

Donald Trump is set to spend the final two years of his presidency facing unified Congressional opposition. With results still coming in, major broadcasters are giving Democrats greater than 95% odds of flipping both the House and the Senate in today’s midterm elections. Investors had anticipated a Republican defeat. Data ahead of the vote showed Donald Trump with the lowest approval rating of any president heading into a midterm election since modern polling began, as voter concerns about rising living costs, worsening political corruption, and the war in the Middle East outweighed unease about a Democratic lurch to the left....

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03 Nov 2026

RBA moves again, but is that it?

• Push/pull forces. Rebound in tech stocks boosted US equities. US mid-term elections in focus today. Potential for bursts of USD volatility over period ahead.• RBA hike. RBA raised rates to 4.85%, high since 2008. AUD slips back. Worsening growth outlook & split RBA vote suggests hiking phase may be over. Global Trends There have been a few intermittent gyrations across markets over the past few sessions as macro and geopolitical factors washed through. On net, a tentative revival of the AI trade boosted US equities overnight (S&P500 +0.3%, NASDAQ +0.8%). Bond yields ticked up (US 10yr +5bps to ~4.96%),...

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02 Nov 2026

Canadian Dollar Market Snapshot: That which doesn’t kill you makes you stranger

The Canadian dollar has endured a series of consecutive blows that might reasonably have been expected to break it. The abrupt collapse of the shale boom, a worldwide pandemic, the unwinding of a generational housing bubble, and a trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner have followed one another in disorienting succession. Yet the loonie has held within a narrow range for most of the past ten years and has essentially flat-lined this year, while both implied and realised volatility are sitting close to multi-decade lows. A currency once viewed as a highly-speculative bet on commodity prices and a proxy...

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31 Oct 2026

Week Ahead Market Brief: November 2 -6

Good morning, and happy Halloween. Currency and government bond markets are holding steady after a week in which monetary and fiscal policymakers largely delivered on expectations: the Bank of Canada raised rates; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held; and in Britain, Chancellor Healey delivered a well-telegraphed, fiscally moderate Budget that kept investors onside with Andy Burnham’s government. Most major currency pairs look largely range-bound, with measures of expected volatility remaining remarkably subdued – including at the one-week horizon – suggesting that participants expect more of the same over the coming days. The...

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30 Oct 2026

Canadian economy slows, weighing on loonie

The Canadian economy slowed in August and appears to have contracted in September, endangering hawkish expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy trajectory. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning showed real gross domestic product flatlining in month-over-month terms in August, undershooting market expectations – and the agency’s own preliminary estimate – for a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, activity rose 1.5%, below the expected 1.7%. A number of potentially short-lived factors drove the weakness, but momentum faded nonetheless. A decline in wholesale trade, led by softness in auto sales, was the biggest contributor to the soft headline, followed...

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