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CAD

Market wobbles return

• Negative vibes. Another jump in energy prices & upward repricing in interest rates dampened risk sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform.• Macro news. Asia exposed to higher energy costs. Growth in Australia set to slow. US Fed looks to be in no hurry to cut again. AU jobs report out today. Global Trends The positive sentiment that ran through markets over recent days gave way overnight, with the harsh reality of the situation in the Middle East and a few macro factors dampening the mood once again. European and US equities declined with the S&P500 shedding ~1.4%, while...

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Bank of Canada holds, signals willingness to look through energy price shock

As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, and expressed concern over persistent weakness in the Canadian economy, suggesting that policymakers are more concerned about downside risks to growth than upside risks to inflation as the world economy faces yet another supply shock. Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent for a third consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers warned “With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty...

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Oil prices slip slightly, bolstering market confidence

Financial markets are turning cautiously optimistic this morning as oil prices stabilise and investors position for a raft of central bank decisions. Several tankers registered to non-aligned countries crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight, even as Iran continued its attacks on Israel and its Gulf neighbours, while Donald Trump said the US could end the war in the “very near future”*. West Texas Intermediate is trading below $95 a barrel, Brent at $103, equity futures are pointing to a second consecutive daily advance, Treasury yields are slipping, and the dollar is edging lower against a basket of its major counterparts....

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RBA’s inflation worry

• Improved mood. Despite ongoing Middle East issues & high oil prices risk sentiment has improved. Softer USD & a RBA hike supports the AUD.• RBA hikes. Another 25bp rate rise delivered yesterday. Inflation pressures point to another move. Markets already pricing that in. Growth set to slow. Global Trends The market mood has picked up over the past couple of sessions, as illustrated by the uptick in equities (US S&P500 +0.3%) and modest dip in bond yields (the US 10yr rate declined ~2bps) overnight. However, the underlying issues that previously weighed on people’s minds remain, especially the precarious situation...

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Dollar firms as Iranian attacks intensify

Good morning. The dollar is recovering from yesterday’s losses as crude prices ricochet higher following a series of Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and West Texas Intermediate are each up more than 3 percent on the session after a tanker was struck by a projectile in the Gulf of Oman, and drone attacks hit the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah facilities and the Shah gas field. Crude markets remain remarkably volatile as downstream energy consumers scramble to secure supplies amid continued uncertainty over the scale and duration of the conflict....

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