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CAD

RBNZ in focus

• Choppy markets. Intra-session swings overnight. Positive steps between US/Iran help sentiment. AUD & NZD tick a bit higher in quiet trading.• Macro events. RBNZ today. No change in rates expected. New forecasts released. AU wages out today ahead of the monthly jobs report tomorrow. Global Trends Markets were choppy overnight with intra-session swings translating to only limited net changes. For example, after falling by nearly 1% at the open on the back of lingering AI uncertainty, the US S&P500 clawed its way back into positive territory (+0.1% over the day). In bonds, US yields edged a fraction higher (+1-3bps...

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Currency traders seek safe havens as turbulence continues

Good morning. Risk aversion is dominating markets as trading resumes after yesterday’s North American holiday. The dollar and safe-haven yen are extending their gains, two-year Treasury yields are sliding toward three-year lows, and equity futures are pointing to a weaker open as investors brace for a continuation of last week’s rotation away from AI-exposed businesses. Oil prices are slightly higher on reports that Iran has closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises. Here in Canada, inflation pressures eased more than expected last month. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the headline consumer price index climbing...

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Aussie jobs data & RBNZ in focus this week

• US CPI. Cooling US inflation helped stabilise risk sentiment. US bond yields dipped. USD tread water, as did the NZD. AUD drifted a bit lower on Friday.• Event radar. US holiday tonight. Lunar New Year started. RBNZ meets this week (Weds). US GDP (Fri night AEDT) & AU jobs data also out (Thurs). Global Trends There was a mixed performance across markets at the end of last week with encouraging US inflation data in the driver’s seat. US equities stabilised on Friday after the previous sessions tech/AI-led selloff. Nevertheless, the S&P500 still recorded its 4th, albeit small, decline in...

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Relief washes over markets as US inflation print meets expectations

Consumer price growth avoided a widely-feared acceleration in the United States last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to adopt a slightly more accommodative stance in the months to come. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—climbed 2.5 percent in the year ending in January, matching consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, and was up 0.2 percent from December. On a headline all-items basis, prices rose 2.4 percent year-over-year—slower than the 2.5 percent expected in markets—and...

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Dollar bears shrug off positive payrolls

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower even after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected jobs data drove a hawkish repricing in US growth and monetary policy expectations. Treasury yields are holding steady, North American equity indices are setting up for a mixed open, and most major currency pairs—including the Australian and Canadian dollars, the British pound, and the euro—are trading within tightly-defined ranges. January’s headline payrolls figure came in nearly double consensus forecasts and unemployment fell unexpectedly, reducing market-implied odds of an early rate cut, lifting 10-year yields and triggering a sharp dollar rally. The surface details looked positive: 130,000 new jobs against...

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