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CAD

17 Jul 2026

Markets turn cautious as geopolitical and valuation threats intensify

Good morning. Risk sentiment is deteriorating across financial markets amid worsening geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and a widening rout in technology-sector shares. Another flareup in the Middle East conflict is keeping oil prices elevated and reigniting inflation concerns. The United States launched a sixth consecutive day of strikes against Iranian targets last night, with Tehran retaliating against facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Syria. Brent crude is trading just above $85 a barrel, up 15% this month. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has again ground to a standstill, and there are growing fears that Iran’s proxies in Yemen...

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15 Jul 2026

Bank of Canada stays on hold, demonstrates growing confidence in the economic outlook

As markets had overwhelmingly anticipated, the Bank of Canada left its policy settings on hold this morning, while pointing to signs of renewed economic growth and gradually easing inflation against a backdrop of persistent risks from the Middle East conflict and US trade tensions. Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem maintained the policy rate at 2.25 percent for a sixth consecutive meeting after delivering nine cuts between June 2024 and September 2025. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers took a more optimistic view on the outlook, highlighting recent evidence of solid consumer spending, a stabilisation in housing...

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15 Jul 2026

Dollar continues retreat even as oil prices climb

Good morning. Oil prices are extending their gains as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, and the dollar remains on the defensive after yesterday’s June inflation report came in well below forecasts. President Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports yesterday, and Tehran threatened to close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies”—language widely interpreted as a signal that Iran intends to use its proxies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean through which a further 14% of global trade passes. Brent...

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14 Jul 2026

Risk reversal

• Market rebound. Pres. Trump backtracks on Strait of Hormuz levy. US CPI softer. Odds of a July Fed hike pared back. USD weaker. AUD & NZD rise.• Data pulse. US CPI underwhelms, but Fed Chair Warsh not swayed. US producer prices out tonight. China GDP due today. BoC expected to hold. Global Trends The modest market meltdown at the start of the week unwound overnight with the mood more positive. On net, US equities rose (S&P500 +0.4%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+0.9%), US bond yields dipped ~3-9bps across the curve, and the USD lost a bit of ground....

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14 Jul 2026

Dollar retreats as traders batten the hatches ahead of inflation print

Good morning. Oil prices are up nearly 15% from Friday’s close and the dollar is retreating after an escalation between Washington and Tehran led to a collapse in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, again threatening global energy supplies. After a series of Iranian attacks on shipping and military skirmishes, President Trump yesterday reinstated a naval blockade on Iran, declaring the United States would become the Strait’s “guardian” and that it “will remain open, with or without Iran”. He also announced a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the waterway*—a levy that would materially raise the cost of a barrel...

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