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CAD

Upbeat tone. But for how long?

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...

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Currencies steady as conflicting forces keep the dollar hemmed in

Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency markets are firmly range-bound, with most major currencies down by less than 0.3% against the dollar since Friday’s close. Oil prices are slipping, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate down by more than 3% from yesterday. After threatening “the single greatest financial offensive...

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Trump threatens further tariff increases on Canadian goods

Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian auto and steel products to 50%, a step that would mark a further breach of the USMCA agreement negotiated in his first term. The Canadian dollar is coming under selling pressure and interest rates are falling as traders price in a slower economy and a more dovish Bank of Canada. “On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%,” Trump wrote on social media. “Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible...

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Dollar tries to climb off the mat

Good morning and welcome back. The US dollar is struggling to climb off a three-month low as traders digest last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, and await Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc are all marginally softer—but still up solidly relative to a week ago. The dollar tumbled last week when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his department would “at least” double its purchases of long-term...

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US-Canada trade talks fall apart

Trade negotiations between the US and Canada collapsed last night, shortly before President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs were due to take effect on roughly $20bn in Canadian goods. In a statement, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada had suspended the negotiations over “last-minute changes” that were “unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal”. He vowed to impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs and announce new support measures for Canadian workers in the days ahead. Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, called it “a missed opportunity for Canada”, claiming that Washington had offered “the best treatment of any major...

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