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CAD

US job creation slows, clobbering Fed tightening bets

The US job creation engine slowed in June, weighing on expectations for a renewed tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 57,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an undershoot relative to the 110,000 median consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 74,000 positions, lowering the three-month average pace of job creation to 111,000, from 188,000 ahead of the update. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, driven by employment gains that outpaced labour force additions. After...

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US jobs report in focus

• Risk wobbles. US/European equities slipped back overnight. USD firmer. NZD treading water while AUD underperforms. AUD still tracking sub ~$0.69.• Data trends. On net, more solid US data released the past few days. Monthly US jobs report released tonight. Fed rate hike pricing could shift again. Global Trends After a positive end to Q2 there were a few modest wobbles across markets overnight. European and US equities slipped back with the tech-focused NASDAQ (-0.7%) underperforming the broader S&P500 (-0.2%). Long-end bond yields ticked up a fraction with the US 10yr rate tracking near ~4.48%, a little above the midpoint...

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Dollar grinds higher into quarter end

Good morning. In the absence of any major volatility catalysts, the dollar is adding to its gains and Treasury yields are holding firm, with equity futures pointing to a flat open. Oil prices have fallen back to levels last seen before the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict began at the end of February, and the skirmishes that continue to flare are drawing diminishing reactions from markets—a sign that traders have moved on from the war as a primary driver and are trading the macro picture instead. Treasury markets barely reacted yesterday when the Supreme Court blocked President Trump’s effort to fire Federal Reserve...

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AUD still on struggle street

• Risk rebound. US equities rose overnight after last week’s falls. USD/JPY touched highest point since 1986. AUD treading water just under ~$0.69.• Data pulse. RBA minutes & China PMIs due today. Later this week US Fed Chair Warsh speaks, the ISM is due, & non-farm payrolls are released. Global Trends After the recent bout of risk aversion which saw US equities decline and the USD strengthen last week, markets have started this week on a more positive footing. The US S&P500 rose overnight (+1.2%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+2.1%). ‘Glass half full’ equities bounced despite lingering ‘valuation’ concerns,...

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Dollar holds firm ahead of potentially-dangerous week

Good morning. The dollar is holding near a 13-month high and Treasury yields are edging upward as equity futures point to a modest advance at the open, with the Nasdaq set to recover some ground after falling more than 4% last week amid jitters over artificial intelligence valuations. Traders are bracing for turbulence as quarter-end flows collide with a series of key labour market and economic activity releases against a thin liquidity backdrop in a holiday-shortened week, with Canadian exchanges closed on Wednesday and US markets shut on Friday. Crude prices are easing after the United States and Iran reportedly*...

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