CAD

• Upbeat vibes. Largely as expected US CPI reinforced US Fed rate cut thinking. US equities rose. USD softer. AUD touched a 10-month high.• US cuts. US Fed looks set to cut rates next week. A steady downshift should unfold, in our opinion. This is a medium-term USD headwind.• Data flow. On top of the US Fed meeting next week China data is due (Mon), as are US retail sales (Tues night). AU employment also scheduled (Thurs). Global Trends Markets remain in a jovial mood with the prospect of lower US interest rates supporting risk sentiment and keeping the USD...

• Positive tone. Soft US producer prices reinforced Fed easing expectations. Equities rose & yields dipped. AUD touched highest point since November.• Fed pricing. US CPI due tonight. May generate some vol. But outlook for a steady stream of US rate cuts should remain. This is a USD headwind.• Policy convergence. Further RBA easing anticipated. But more aggressive steps by US Fed could see rates switch in favour of RBA in late-2026. Global Trends A generally positive session in markets overnight with weaker than predicted US producer prices setting the tone. Equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.3%) touching another record,...

• Mixed markets. US equities touched a record. Bond yields rose, as did the USD. AUD drifted back after coming close to its year-to-date peak.• US jobs. Revisions to US payrolls larger than anticipated. Pace of jobs growth looks a lot slower. US Fed likely to deliver a series of rate cuts.• Inflation trends. US producer price inflation due tonight. Consumer prices out tomorrow. Will the data show greater pass-through from tariffs? Global Trends A mixed performance across markets overnight. The US S&P500 (+0.3%) hit a fresh record with the index now over 10% higher compared to where it ended...

• Upbeat tone. Markets continue to factor in US Fed rate cuts. US bond yields fell further & USD weakened. AUD approaching top of its year-to-date range.• US jobs. Benchmark revisions to US payrolls due tonight. Negative revisions could keep USD on backfoot, a tailwind for other currencies.• Inflation pulse. US producer & consumer prices due later this week. More signs of tariff driven inflation may generate a burst of market volatility. Global Trends News wise it has been a quiet start to the week. The lack of fresh information has seen markets reinforce their US Fed interest rate cut...