AUD

• Market swings. Tariff headlines generated more vol. overnight. S&P500 traded in a ~8.5% range. AUD still tracking at levels last seen during COVID.• Negative vibes. Tariffs will slow US/global growth. But is the extreme market vol. justified? These types of moves only seen during a crisis.• AUD levels. Momentum/sentiment have been overpowering fundamentals. AUD in ‘rarefied air’ having only traded sub-$0.60 very infrequently since 2015. Global Trends Volatility has continued as markets adjust to the changing economic landscape stemming from recent tariff developments and react to new news. Negative sentiment dominated yesterday’s early trade as Friday’s US market turmoil...

• Vol. shock. Growth concerns after China retaliated to US tariffs saw markets tumble again on Friday. AUD & NZD plunged, as did equities/commodities.• Extreme moves. The over 10% two-day drop in the S&P500 has only happened a handful of times. AUD’s one-day trading range also historically wide.• Event Radar. Tariff developments will continue to be in the drivers seat. Data wise, US CPI due this week, RBNZ meets, & RBA Gov. Bullock speaks. Global Trends Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate. Asset markets tumbled again on Friday as worries about a tariff induced ‘Trumpcession’ ramped up. Anxiety levels spiked further...

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...