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AUD

01 Jul 2025

USD remains on the back foot

• Consolidation. Modest moves across most markets. USD index remains heavy with EUR pushing higher. AUD hovering near top of its range.• Macro pulse. US manufacturing ISM shows momentum still sluggish. US jobs report the main data focal point later this week.• AU data. Retail sales & building approvals released today. After a subdued start to the year will retail spending turn the corner? Global Trends Modest moves across markets at the start of the new month. US equities slipped back a touch from record highs (S&P500 -0.1%), US bond yields nudged up after trending lower the past few weeks,...

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30 Jun 2025

US dollar blues

• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the year. Worst performance over the first half of a year since the early-70s.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI & ECB conference in focus tonight. Various US jobs indicators due over next few days. US ISM also released tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment ended the month, and volatile quarter, on positive footing with the US S&P500 (+0.5%) hitting a fresh record high and cyclical currencies like the...

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29 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff impacts on US inflation. Has the uncertainty flowed through to the US jobs market?• Event Radar. China PMIs today. Annual ECB conference & EZ inflation due this week. US jobs report scheduled (Thurs night AEST) ahead of US holiday. Global Trends Markets were whipsawed a little during Friday’s trade by a couple of tariff related developments and US economic releases. Risk sentiment temporarily soured a...

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26 Jun 2025

USD losing altitude

• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market is loosening. Reports also indicate Pres. Trump may name the next Fed Chair early.• USD downtrend. Various factors continue to move against the USD. There will be bumps along the way but we see the USD weakening over time. Global Trends The de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East has seen investors quickly refocus their attention on US macro trends. The run of US...

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25 Jun 2025

USD pressure points

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in early-July. However, this is largely priced in. Global Trends Some mixed fortunes across financial markets overnight, though on net the moves have been modest. In contrast to the solid rise across Asian equities...

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