AUD

• Risk uptick. US equities ended a 3-day losing streak on Friday. USD eased back. AUD & NZD tick up. No change expected by RBA this week.• US shutdown. US politics in focus with another shutdown looming. Last minute deal needed. A shutdown could see US data releases put on hold.• Event Radar. In addition to the risk of a US government shutdown the RBA meets (Tues). China PMIs also out (Tues) as is Eurozone CPI (Weds). Global Trends A more positive tone across markets at the end of last week. US and European equities rose on Friday with the...

• Market swings. US equities dipped again, while US yields & USD rose. NZD remains on backfoot. AUD unwound yesterday’s CPI induced gains.• AU CPI. Inflation hotter than expected in August. Data raises doubts about further RBA rate cuts. Relative policy trends can be AUD supportive. Global Trends There were a few more market wobbles overnight with US equities declining modestly for the second straight session (S&P500 -0.3%), US bond yields ticking up ~2-4bps across the curve, and the USD clawing back ground. The EUR (the major USD alternative) slipped down towards ~$1.1740 (the lower end of its ~2-week range),...

• FX consolidation. In contrast to the dip in US equities & yields the USD tread water. AUD near ~$0.66. Fed Chair Powell notes the “challenging situation”.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator due today. Base effects & leading indicators point to a pick up in inflation. RBA looks set to remain on a different path to its peers. Global Trends Steady as she goes, at least in FX, with the major currencies treading water over the past few sessions after last week’s US Fed induced burst of volatility. EUR (the major USD alternative) is tracking just above ~$1.18, USD/JPY (the...

• Holding on. Quiet end to last week. US equities at record levels. US yields & USD tick up. AUD eased back further. AUD’s first weekly fall in a month.• Event Radar. Global PMIs due (Tues). US PCE deflator also out (Fri). US Fed Chair Powell speaks (Weds AEST). AU CPI indicator scheduled (Weds). Global Trends It was a fairly quiet end to the week after the burst of US Fed inspired volatility the prior few sessions. Data wise there were no major releases in the US or Europe, while in Asia, as expected, the Bank of Japan held interest...

• Fed moves. US Fed cut rates by 25bps & flagged more down the track. But this was priced. A burst of vol. overnight. AUD slipped back from ~11mth highs.• Rate cuts. Chair Powell labelled it ‘risk management’. But negative labour market trends point to a steady stream of Fed rate cuts, in our view.• Data flow. Bank of Canada also cut rates overnight. NZ GDP weaker than expected. Australian jobs report out today. BoE set to hold steady tonight. Global Trends The US Fed policy meeting was in focus overnight. The outcome generated a bit of volatility due to...