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AUD

Geopolitical Concerns Ease Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Measures of market stress are moderating ahead of a week crammed with a combustible array of potential volatility catalysts including an escalation in Middle East hostilities, three major central bank meetings and a raft of first-tier economic data. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to a recovery from Friday’s losses, and the dollar’s gains are fading in the face of renewed advances from the euro, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Australian dollar. An easing in geopolitical uncertainty is putting safe-haven currencies under pressure and oil prices are retreating after Israel and Iran avoided targeting critical energy infrastructure...

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The fog of war

• Middle East conflict. Developments dampened sentiment. Oil prices spiked & equities slipped back. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• Volatility. Geopolitical tensions can generate more bursts of volatility. This adds to the economic uncertainty stemming from various US policies.• Event Radar. AU jobs report (Thurs) is due. China data out today. In the US retail sales & Fed meeting in focus. BoJ & BoE also on the schedule. Global Trends Developments in the Middle East rattled markets on Friday, and with Israel and Iran continuing to trade blows over the weekend investor nervousness is likely to continue...

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Crosscurrents

• Mixed signals. Positive US CPI offset by lack of US/China trade progress. S&P500 dipped, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD also eased back.• Tariff impacts. Some signs of tariffs in US inflation. But other factors working the opposite way. Will US inflation re-accelerate down the track?• Data flow. US producer prices & jobless claims tonight. Next week US Fed meets, China data is due, & the AU jobs report is released. Global Trends Contrasting US economic and trade tariff news generated a few intra-session market swings overnight. On the more positive front US CPI came in a little...

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Slow & steady

• Quiet start. US equities rose a bit overnight, while US bond yields & the USD eased. AUD & NZD near top of their respective multi-month ranges.• Macro trends. US jobs report released last Friday. Topline figures mask weakness under the hood. Indicators point to softer trends forming.• Event Radar. US/China trade talks taking place. In the US, inflation is a focus (Weds). Will the US CPI show tariff impacts on ‘goods’ prices? Global Trends It has been a quiet start to the new week across markets. US equities ended the overnight session a bit higher (S&P500 +0.1%), while US...

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US jobs in focus

• US wobbles. US equities declined & USD softened. Public spat between Musk & Trump intensified. AUD touched a fresh year-to-date high.• Macro trends. ECB delivered a ‘hawkish’ cut. Tweaks to inflation forecasts & rhetoric suggest ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle.• US jobs. Monthly US jobs figures in focus tonight. Various indicators point to a cooling US labour market. Will the data spring a surprise? Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces generated a few wobbles overnight. On net, in contrast to the modest uptick in European equities the major US markets declined (S&P500 -0.5%) with...

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