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AUD

26 Jun 2025

USD losing altitude

• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market is loosening. Reports also indicate Pres. Trump may name the next Fed Chair early.• USD downtrend. Various factors continue to move against the USD. There will be bumps along the way but we see the USD weakening over time. Global Trends The de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East has seen investors quickly refocus their attention on US macro trends. The run of US...

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25 Jun 2025

USD pressure points

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in early-July. However, this is largely priced in. Global Trends Some mixed fortunes across financial markets overnight, though on net the moves have been modest. In contrast to the solid rise across Asian equities...

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24 Jun 2025

Art of the truce

• Peacemaker. De-escalation of Israel/Iran conflict boosted sentiment. Equities rose, oil declined. This dragged down the USD. AUD & NZD higher.• Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell also spoke. Noted there is no rush to act, but kept door open to more policy easing if inflation remains contained.• AU CPI. CPI indicator due today. More info on services prices this month. Will the CPI show sticky core inflation? RBA next meets on 8 July. Global Trends Yesterday’s Israel/Iran ceasefire announcement improved the market mood with risk sentiment quite positive over the past 24hrs. After US President Trump criticized both sides for...

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22 Jun 2025

Hammer blow

• Middle East. Weekend developments with the US entering the fray have dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer this morning. AUD on backfoot.• Fluid situation. How Iran responds will be in focus. Will it look to disrupt global oil flows? More market volatility anticipated over the period ahead.• Event Radar. Data wise AU CPI indicator due this week. Global PMIs are out today. Fed Chair Powell speaks & US PCE deflator is released. Global Trends Market wise there isn’t a lot to say about what happened on Friday night with US equities drifting back (S&P500 -0.2%), bond yields a touch...

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18 Jun 2025

Holding on

• Holding on. Consolidation in markets with US equities & bond yields little changed. Lower vol. helped AUD & NZD edge higher.• US Fed. Policymakers still projecting two cuts in late-2025. But fewer reductions are anticipated in 2026 because of tariff-related inflation risks.• AU jobs. Monthly Australian employment figures out today. After a strong result in April will the volatile series show some payback in May? Global Trends Following the zigzag moves over the past few days on the back of evolving Middle East news markets consolidated overnight ahead of the US public holiday. The S&P500 was range-bound as were...

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