AUD

• Holding on. Consolidation across most markets after the recent turbulence. USD treads water. AUD hovering near ~$0.69, ~5% from its May peak.• Data flow. AU jobs rebound in May, but that only unwound the April falls. More doubts RBA will hike again. US data firm. US Fed rate hikes underpriced? Global Trends Following the recent bouts of turbulence, there was a relative sense of calm and modest moves across markets overnight. US equities were choppy with the tech-focused NASDAQ slipping back again (-0.5%) in part due to heavyweight stock Apple shedding ~6% after announcing its product price rises. Elsewhere,...

• Shaky ground. A bout of risk aversion has washed through markets the past few days. US equities lose ground. USD firmer. AUD down near ~$0.6900.• Macro pulse. US PCE deflator out tonight. Australian jobs report due today. We think the cross-currents point to more downside risks for the AUD. Global Trends Markets have been on edge for the past few days with a bout of risk aversion washing through. Equities have fallen back. The US S&P500 has lost ground for three straight sessions, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming. The NASDAQ has declined by ~4% so far this week, however...

• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to hike rates & RBA predicted to hold. US Fed later this week, the first meeting for new Chair Warsh. Global Trends It has been a relatively upbeat start to the week with markets reacting somewhat positively to the news that a deal has (finally) been struck between the US/Iran. It isn’t a final deal, rather only a Memorandum of Understanding for a 60-day ‘ceasefire’ that will...

• US/Iran. Latest reversal by President Trump boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, oil & bond yields fell. USD weaker. AUD rebounds after a torrid run.• Macro pulse. Energy/supply-chain disruption impacts only just starting to show. ECB raised rates overnight. RBA, BoJ, BoE, & US Fed in focus next week. Global Trends Middle East related headlines have been in the driver’s seat overnight with the (latest) reversal by President Trump generating a turnaround in sentiment. After proclaiming yesterday that the US will attack Iran “very hard” President Trump cancelled strikes and claimed an agreement to end hostilities could be signed...