AUD

• Market wobbles. Fading optimism about the latest US/Iran deal pushed up oil prices. US bond yields higher. USD firmer. AUD & NZD slipped back.• Data pulse. US jobs report in focus tonight. Data could generate a binary market reaction. RBA next week. No policy change anticipated. Global Trends A few renewed, albeit modest, wobbles across markets with Middle East related news a factor. Optimism the US and Iran might reach a sustainable deal has been shaken, and there have been flare ups across the region. Reported attacks by Houthis against forces in Yemen suggest the conflict may be widening....

• Upbeat vibes. Positive US/Iran rhetoric. Oil prices lower, US equities higher. USD on backfoot. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD outperform.• Data pulse. US ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. US jobs report out later this week. Potential for renewed bursts of market volatility. Global Trends The more upbeat risk sentiment that came through at the end of July have continued over the past few sessions. US equities rose overnight with the ~1.8% gain in the S&P500 overshadowed by a ~2.6% lift in the tech-focused NASDAQ, its first back-to-back gain of 2% or more since April 2025. A...

• JPY jump. Sizeable drop in USD/JPY, reportedly due to intervention. This has weighed on the USD & pushed AUD up to levels last traded in mid-June.• Market pulse. BoJ meets today. Could it deliver a surprise hike? BoE kept rates steady overnight. US GDP underwhelmed but underlying detail was solid. Global Trends A flurry of excitement across markets overnight with FX in the spotlight. The USD has been under pressure with a bit more of a reaction to yesterday’s ‘on hold’ US Fed decision compounded by moves in the JPY. USD/JPY (the second most traded currency pair) has dropped...

• Market nerves. Middle East news pushes up oil & inflation worries boost bond yields. US equities decline. USD firmer. AUD & NZD weaker.• AU jobs. Employment stronger than predicted. But unemployment above RBA’s forecast. Q2 CPI due next week. AUD facing global headwinds. Global Trends Nervousness across financial markets has intensified with risk sentiment weakening further overnight. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are renewing concerns about inflation and what it might mean for interest rates. In addition to the fighting around Iran, which is disrupting shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, attacks in the Red Sea are threatening...