AUD

• Mixed signals. US data crosscurrents resulted in modest net market moves overnight. US equities consolidated. Oil prices fell. AUD lost a bit of ground.• US data. Core retail sales stronger, but PMIs underwhelmed. Labour market slack increasing with US unemployment highest since Q3 2021.• Macro events. NZ Q3 GDP due tomorrow. US CPI and ECB/BoE/BoJ meetings later this week. BoE expected to cut while BoJ could hike rates again. Global Trends Push-pull forces stemming from the large batch of US economic data released overnight resulted in modest net market moves. On balance, although the tech-focused NASDAQ ticked higher (+0.2%)...

• Equity wobbles. Fresh valuation concerns weighed on US equities on Friday. AUD & NZD lost a bit of ground, but still rose over the past week.• Event Radar. NZ GDP is out (Thurs). US jobs data, retail sales, & CPI due this week. ECB looks set to hold, BoE could cut, & BoJ might hike rates. Global Trends Outside of a narrowly based pullback in US equities on Friday stemming from fresh valuation concerns across the AI sector (S&P500 -1.1%, NASDAQ -1.7%) other market moves were modest. Indeed, even after accounting for Friday’s dip the S&P500 is not that...

• US Fed. Another US rate cut announced. But guidance wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. Positive for sentiment. USD weaker. AUD close to year-to-date peak.• AU jobs. Australian employment data due today. Monthly figures are volatile. Another solid report would reinforce views RBA may hike rates in early-2026. Global Trends The US Fed meeting was the market focal point overnight. As expected, the US Fed delivered another 25bp rate cut, lowering the policy target range to 3.50-3.75%. This was ~90% factored in ahead of the event. Notably, the Fed’s updated guidance and economic projections were little different from last time...

• Consolidation. US equities tread water ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision. The USD index ticked up. AUD outperformed due to RBA rhetoric.• RBA shift. No change in rates yesterday but there were ‘hawkish’ signals. Inflation risks have changed. February meeting looks ‘live’ for a rate hike.• US Fed. Another rate cut expected. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. A ‘cautious’ tone about more near-term rate reductions may see the USD lift. Global Trends Modest moves across most asset classes overnight as traders marked time ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision (Thurs 6am AEDT) and Chair Powell’s press conference...

• Solid run. US equities rose on Friday, as did bond yields. USD index tread water. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) strengthened.• Central banks. No change by RBA (Tues), however tone could be ‘hawkish’. US Fed (Thurs morning) set to cut rates but may not signal another near-term move. Global Trends Markets had a relatively quiet end to last week with a string of government shutdown delayed US data points not really moving the needle. In terms of the numbers US equities edged up with the broader S&P500 (+0.2%) within striking distance of its record highs. Bond yields also rose...