AUD

• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond yields. USD claws back more lost ground. NZD & AUD drift lower. AUD outperforms NZD, JPY & EUR.• Upcoming events. China trade data released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. Will the USD’s recovery extend? Global Trends US trade developments remain in the spotlight. After signaling that an announcement was in the pipeline yesterday the US unveiled a ‘framework’ for a deal with the UK. A positive...

• Mixed markets. US equities end a bit higher overnight, while bond yields eased & the USD rose. AUD & NZD gave back ground over the past 24hrs.• Macro news. US/China reportedly set to hold trade talks. US Fed ‘cautious’. No change in rates. There is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook.• Market trends. After a strong run AUD & NZD may ease back further near-term. This reflects the potential for the USD to tick up a little more. Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces have washed through markets over the past few days. On the one hand,...

• Positive vibes. Upbeat sentiment on Friday. Reports bolstered expectations about US/China trade war de-escalation. Solid US jobs data also helped.• Market trends. US equities recorded 9th straight gain. AUD hovering at the top of its multi-month range. Labor wins Federal Election with larger majority.• Event Radar. In NZ Q1 jobs report due (Weds). US Fed & BoE also meet this week. BoE expected to cut rates while US Fed looks set to hold steady. Global Trends It was a positive end to last week in markets with equities extending their recovery, base metals and bond yields rising, and cyclical...

• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY. US jobs report tonight. Signs the labour market is holding up could be USD supportive & drag on AUD.• AU election. Federal election takes place tomorrow. Polls pointing to a Labor win. We don’t expect the outcome to impact the RBA trajectory or the AUD. Global Trends Sentiment towards US assets continued to improve overnight with equities rising and the USD index appreciating. Stronger earnings...

• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends point to further RBA interest rate relief in May. Global Trends Despite a deluge of global economic data, particularly out of the US, and a few intra-session bursts of volatility the...