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AUD

06 May 2026

Let’s make a deal (round #5)

• Positive vibes. Markets optimistic about an end to the US/Iran conflict. Oil lower, USD softer. NZD outperforms. AUD touched a fresh multi-year high.• Twists & turns. Spillovers from the conflict set to be with us for a while. RBA rate hikes will weigh on growth. US jobs report could generate FX vol. Global Trends Markets have remained in a positive state of mind with hopes of an end to the conflict in Iran underpinning risk sentiment. Reports indicate the US has offered Iran a memorandum of understanding that could end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift...

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05 May 2026

RBA: Higher inflation & slower growth

The RBA continues to take few chances when it comes to the problematic domestic inflation trends with another interest rate hike announced today. This is the third consecutive meeting the RBA has tapped on the brakes with the latest 25bp increase moving the cash rate up to 4.35%. Policy settings have been recalibrated quickly. The interest rate ‘relief’ delivered last year has been unwound with the cash rate back at the ‘peak’ reached in the 2023/24 inflation fight. Today’s decision wasn’t unanimous with the RBA Board voting 8-1 in favour of a hike. It was a matter of when, not...

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05 May 2026

RBA hikes again. But it will come at a cost.

• Optimistic markets. Equities rose, oil dipped on positive US/Iran vibes. More volatility likely. USD softens. AUD whipped around by push/pull forces.• RBA hike. RBA announced its 3rd straight rate rise. Another hike more likely than not. But it will come at an economic cost. Growth set to slow sharply. Global Trends Sentiment about the situation in the Middle East has generated a few bursts of volatility over recent sessions. Following a deterioration in risk appetite yesterday indications the US/Iran ceasefire is holding eased fears overnight. US officials downplayed Iran’s actions stating that the targeting of warships and attacks on...

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05 May 2026

Ceasefire holds—symbolically, at least—relieving global markets

Good morning. Markets are steadying and crude prices are pulling back from their highs as the US and Iran avoid further escalation after a series of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz raised questions about the durability of the ceasefire struck in early April. Yesterday’s American attempt to open the waterway—dubbed “Project Freedom”—sank at least six Iranian fast-attack boats and triggered drone strikes on cargo and tanker ships, along with missile attacks on infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, sending energy benchmarks soaring. With Washington and Tehran making somewhat-conciliatory noises, Brent crude for July delivery is edging lower after jumping...

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30 Apr 2026

Japan steps into FX markets

• JPY jump. USD weaker as Japanese officials intervene to prop up the very weak JPY. This & positive sentiment boosted the AUD & NZD.• Macro trends. Further bouts of JPY intervention possible. US GDP re-accelerates. BoE & ECB hold rates steady, but ECB hints at future hikes. Global TrendsA few push-pull forces washed through markets overnight with risk sentiment generally improving at the end of the month. European and US equities rose with the S&P500 (+1%) recording its best month since late 2020 (+10.4% in April). Elsewhere, bond yields gave back ground with 2yr rates across the UK, Europe,...

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