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AUD

18 Mar 2026

Market wobbles return

• Negative vibes. Another jump in energy prices & upward repricing in interest rates dampened risk sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform.• Macro news. Asia exposed to higher energy costs. Growth in Australia set to slow. US Fed looks to be in no hurry to cut again. AU jobs report out today. Global Trends The positive sentiment that ran through markets over recent days gave way overnight, with the harsh reality of the situation in the Middle East and a few macro factors dampening the mood once again. European and US equities declined with the S&P500 shedding ~1.4%, while...

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17 Mar 2026

RBA’s inflation worry

• Improved mood. Despite ongoing Middle East issues & high oil prices risk sentiment has improved. Softer USD & a RBA hike supports the AUD.• RBA hikes. Another 25bp rate rise delivered yesterday. Inflation pressures point to another move. Markets already pricing that in. Growth set to slow. Global Trends The market mood has picked up over the past couple of sessions, as illustrated by the uptick in equities (US S&P500 +0.3%) and modest dip in bond yields (the US 10yr rate declined ~2bps) overnight. However, the underlying issues that previously weighed on people’s minds remain, especially the precarious situation...

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17 Mar 2026

RBA: Inflation battle continues

After being ‘strategically timid’ during its last tightening cycle the RBA looks to be taking fewer chances when it comes to its renewed battle against inflation with another 25bp rate hike announced today. This follows the rate rise delivered at the last meeting in February and lifts the cash rate back up to 4.1%, just 25bps off the ‘peak’ reached in the 2023/2024 inflation fight (chart 1). Today’s decision wasn’t unanimous with the RBA Board voting 5-4 in favour of a hike. This was more evenly split than anticipated with markets pricing in a ~70% chance of a move. It...

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16 Mar 2026

Markets reverse higher as Strait of Hormuz blockage shows signs of easing

There was lots of drama over the weekend. Sinners. One Battle After Another. A Shakespearean tragedy. The Secret Agent. Mr Nobody Against Putin. And that was just the Middle East — the Oscars were on too. Markets are reversing direction and turning cautiously optimistic after several oil tankers navigated the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, easing fears of a prolonged disruption to crude flows in the wake of US strikes on Kharg Island. Ships registered to India and Pakistan were granted safe passage, joining Chinese and Iranian vessels already making the transit. Global crude benchmarks are surrendering some of...

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15 Mar 2026

Middle East & RBA in focus this week

• Market nerves. Higher oil prices & Middle East developments dampened risk sentiment on Friday. USD firmer. NZD & AUD underperform.• Macro events. Central banks in the spotlight this week. High chance of a RBA rate hike. But its not guaranteed. AUD volatility around the RBA likely. Global Trends Risk sentiment remained negative at the end of last week with the situation in the Middle East and jump in oil prices continuing to unnerve investors. The conflict is entering its third week and shows limited signs of letting up. The US continues to bolster its military presence in the region,...

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