AUD

• Geopolitical jitters. US/Iran tensions dampen sentiment. Equities lower, oil firmer. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD weaken. AUD at ~2-month low.• Data pulse. US CPI confirmed an oil-driven acceleration in headline inflation. ECB expected to hike rates tonight. US producer prices also released. Global Trends Risk sentiment has remained on the backfoot with renewed hostilities in the Middle East dampening the market mood. Following President Trump’s proclamation the US would ‘strike Iran hard’ the US launched strikes on multiple targets. The latest moves highlight President Trump’s growing impatience with the stalled ‘peace efforts’/negotiations. Recall, the initial ‘two-week ceasefire’ began...

• Market wobbles. Renewed tensions in the Middle East dampen sentiment. Tech stocks slip back again. AUD still on the backfoot. AUD underperforms.• Macro news. AU consumer confidence falls further below average. Doubts RBA may hike again. US CPI out tonight. Jump in US inflation may generate vol. Global Trends More wobbles and volatility across financial markets overnight. Tension and uncertainty in the Middle East remains. On the one hand, there were reports Kuwait is offering to sell oil to refiners in Asia for the first time since the conflict kicked off and that oil/gas supply via the Strait of...

• Market swings. Modest improvement in sentiment overnight after risk aversion on Friday. Markets bring forward US rate hike pricing. AUD near 2-month low.• US data. Better than expected US jobs report on Friday. US CPI out this week. Markets may continue to adjust their US Fed thinking. More vol. expected. Global Trends A few turbulent sessions across markets the past few days with a rather acute bout of risk aversion on Friday night and during yesterday’s Asian trade partially unwound overnight. Risk appetite improved a bit during last night’s US trade on the back of Middle East headlines. After...

• Holding on. Modest financial market moves. US equities & oil tick up. NZD a bit softer. AUD edges up slightly & outperforms on the crosses.• Data flow. More signs US jobs market is holding up. EZ inflation quickens, raising odds of an ECB rate hike next week. AU Q1 GDP released today. Global Trends A fairly quiet 24hrs across markets with modest net moves coming through across most asset classes. US equities nudged up (S&P500 +0.1%), US bond yields consolidated, oil rose slightly (WTI crude +1.4%), and the major currencies tread water with EUR drifting sideways (now ~$1.1630), USD/JPY...

• Headline noise. Conflicting Middle East news generated a few bursts of volatility. US bond yields & USD ticked up. NZD & AUD lost a bit of ground.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI tonight. US non-farm payrolls due later this week. Australian Q1 GDP out on Wednesday. RBA Gov. Bullock also speaks (Thurs). Global Trends Middle East-related headlines knocked markets around a little overnight. Uncertainty about a durable peace deal remains and skirmishes between opposing forces continued over the weekend. Conflicting comments generated a few intra-session bursts of volatility yesterday. On the one hand, Iranian media reported the country would suspend...