AUD

• Shaky sentiment. Another rise in oil & long end bond yields dampened the mood. Equities a bit lower. NZD underperformed while AUD held up.• Macro trends. ECB expected to hike tonight. US producer prices due. RBA rhetoric has been ‘hawkish’. Late-September RBA hike now ~75% priced in. Global Trends A few jitters have returned to markets with higher oil prices, on the back of the intensification of attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and another move up in bond yields dampening the mood. Brent crude has risen above US$101/brl to be at the top end...

• Market swings. US holiday overnight. US/Iran tensions supporting oil. JPY rebound weighing on USD & indirectly boosting currencies like the AUD.• Macro pulse. RBA’s Hunter & Hauser speak today. US CPI this week. Markets factoring in ~60% chance Fed hikes next week & RBA moves this month. Global Trends With the US enjoying a long weekend holiday most financial markets were relatively quiet at the start of the new week. Tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran continue to dampen sentiment a little and are adding a risk premium to oil with brent crude now north of US$97/brl, ~21%...

• Positive vibes. Equities rose & the USD slipped back as markets tempered near-term US Fed rate hike bets & USD/JPY fell. AUD at top of recent range.• Data pulse. Post Q2 AU GDP markets factoring in another RBA hike by November. High chance it happens this month. US jobs report out tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment has been positive over the past couple of sessions with oil prices stabilising (albeit at elevated levels with brent crude tracking near ~US$96/brl) and traders paring back expectations for near-term US Fed rate hikes. Odds of a mid-September rate rise by the US...

• Market jitters. Renewed US/Iran tensions pushed up oil prices. Long end bond yields rose again & equities slipped back. AUD & NZD a bit weaker.• Macro pulse. RBNZ expected to raise rates today. Will its guidance point to more moves? Q2 AU GDP predicted to show sluggish growth. Global Trends Markets have been jittery over the past few sessions with a combination of economic and geopolitical news in the driver’s seat. Macro wise, markets have been absorbing the ‘hawkish’ message delivered by new Fed Chair Warsh at his speech at the end of last week. Chair Warsh raised a...

• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in? Global Trends A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets overnight with US equities a touch softer (NASDAQ -0.1%), bond yields rising a little (US rates rose ~2-4bps across the curve), oil nudging up (brent crude +0.5% to US$87.45/brl), and the USD firmer against...