AUD

• Risk wobbles. Renewed US/Iran tensions dampen risk sentiment. Oil prices jump, US equities dip, & USD firmer. AUD slips back.• US data flow. Fed’s Waller ‘hawkish’. Markets pricing in a Q3 Fed rate hike. US CPI out tonight. New US Fed Chair Warsh also speaks. USD vol. likely. Global Trends A few renewed geopolitical and macro related wobbles across markets at the start of the new week. US equities lost altitude (S&P500 -0.8%), with the tech-sector underperforming (NASDAQ -1.6%), while US bond yields rose ~6-7bps across the curve and oil prices jumped up (Brent Crude +9.5% to ~US$83.30/brl, a...

• US markets. US stocks rose with the tech sector leading the way. USD Index treads water. The AUD ticked up thanks in part to strength on the crosses.• Data flow. Limited data releases in Australia & the US. RBNZ meets tomorrow. Will the RBNZ deliver its first interest rate hike of this cycle? Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week in US markets. US equities rose overnight (S&P500 +0.7%), with the tech focused NASDAQ outperforming (+1.1%). Oversold semiconductor and AI stocks rebounded after last week’s falls. Elsewhere, long end bond yields held steady...

• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls weaker than expected. Some noise in the monthly report. US Fed rate hike pricing pushed back. USD softer. AUD a bit firmer.• JPY focus. Reports out of Japan indicate officials may move to a less predictable FX intervention strategy. Will they step in during the US holiday? Global Trends Ahead of the US’ Independence Day long weekend markets were focused on the latest monthly jobs report. The topline results were generally weaker than predicted with US non-farm payrolls growth slowing to 57,000 in June (its smallest gain since the falls recorded in February), and the...

• Risk wobbles. US/European equities slipped back overnight. USD firmer. NZD treading water while AUD underperforms. AUD still tracking sub ~$0.69.• Data trends. On net, more solid US data released the past few days. Monthly US jobs report released tonight. Fed rate hike pricing could shift again. Global Trends After a positive end to Q2 there were a few modest wobbles across markets overnight. European and US equities slipped back with the tech-focused NASDAQ (-0.7%) underperforming the broader S&P500 (-0.2%). Long-end bond yields ticked up a fraction with the US 10yr rate tracking near ~4.48%, a little above the midpoint...

• Risk rebound. US equities rose overnight after last week’s falls. USD/JPY touched highest point since 1986. AUD treading water just under ~$0.69.• Data pulse. RBA minutes & China PMIs due today. Later this week US Fed Chair Warsh speaks, the ISM is due, & non-farm payrolls are released. Global Trends After the recent bout of risk aversion which saw US equities decline and the USD strengthen last week, markets have started this week on a more positive footing. The US S&P500 rose overnight (+1.2%) with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+2.1%). ‘Glass half full’ equities bounced despite lingering ‘valuation’ concerns,...