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AUD

16 Mar 2026

Markets reverse higher as Strait of Hormuz blockage shows signs of easing

There was lots of drama over the weekend. Sinners. One Battle After Another. A Shakespearean tragedy. The Secret Agent. Mr Nobody Against Putin. And that was just the Middle East — the Oscars were on too. Markets are reversing direction and turning cautiously optimistic after several oil tankers navigated the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, easing fears of a prolonged disruption to crude flows in the wake of US strikes on Kharg Island. Ships registered to India and Pakistan were granted safe passage, joining Chinese and Iranian vessels already making the transit. Global crude benchmarks are surrendering some of...

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15 Mar 2026

Middle East & RBA in focus this week

• Market nerves. Higher oil prices & Middle East developments dampened risk sentiment on Friday. USD firmer. NZD & AUD underperform.• Macro events. Central banks in the spotlight this week. High chance of a RBA rate hike. But its not guaranteed. AUD volatility around the RBA likely. Global Trends Risk sentiment remained negative at the end of last week with the situation in the Middle East and jump in oil prices continuing to unnerve investors. The conflict is entering its third week and shows limited signs of letting up. The US continues to bolster its military presence in the region,...

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12 Mar 2026

Oil prices still dictating terms

• Oil jolt. Another jump in oil prices weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, USD firmer. NZD weaker. AUD underperforms after its strong run.• Twists & turns. Markets pricing a supply risk premium in oil. More volatility likely. RBA next week with chances of a rate hike now sitting at ~70%. Global Trends Middle East developments continue to be in the driver’s seat. Sentiment remained negative overnight with the jump in oil prices dampening the market mood. Brent crude oil is back above ~US$101/brl, a ~8.5% lift from where it was tracking yesterday, and ~74% above levels it was at in...

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10 Mar 2026

Oil volatility & AUD outperforms

• Oil swings. Pull-back in oil prices has supported risk sentiment. Will it last? Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely over period ahead.• RBA Hawks. AUD/USD at top of its range. RBA Dep. Gov ‘hawkish’ yesterday. Will it move next week? More than 2 hikes now priced in by September. Global Trends After a torrid end to last week and negative start on Monday sentiment has improved over the past few days. Volatility has continued with the situation in the Middle East still tricky to navigate. However, while there are still underlying issues in place traders (as...

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08 Mar 2026

Oil price worries intensify

• Macro worries. Growth/inflation concerns due to the jump in oil were compounded by a weak US jobs report. AUD remains on the backfoot.• Oil risks. Production cuts across Middle East creating supply risks. Oil at multi-year high. USD has become positively correlated to oil the past few years. Global Trends It was a negative end to a rather torrid week for markets on Friday. Developments in the Middle East and oil prices remain front of mind, while a weaker than anticipated US jobs report and tepid retail sales compounded investor nervousness. Oil prices jumped again with Brent Crude tracking...

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