AUD

• Positive vibes. Equities rose & the USD slipped back as markets tempered near-term US Fed rate hike bets & USD/JPY fell. AUD at top of recent range.• Data pulse. Post Q2 AU GDP markets factoring in another RBA hike by November. High chance it happens this month. US jobs report out tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment has been positive over the past couple of sessions with oil prices stabilising (albeit at elevated levels with brent crude tracking near ~US$96/brl) and traders paring back expectations for near-term US Fed rate hikes. Odds of a mid-September rate rise by the US...

• Market jitters. Renewed US/Iran tensions pushed up oil prices. Long end bond yields rose again & equities slipped back. AUD & NZD a bit weaker.• Macro pulse. RBNZ expected to raise rates today. Will its guidance point to more moves? Q2 AU GDP predicted to show sluggish growth. Global Trends Markets have been jittery over the past few sessions with a combination of economic and geopolitical news in the driver’s seat. Macro wise, markets have been absorbing the ‘hawkish’ message delivered by new Fed Chair Warsh at his speech at the end of last week. Chair Warsh raised a...

• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in? Global Trends A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets overnight with US equities a touch softer (NASDAQ -0.1%), bond yields rising a little (US rates rose ~2-4bps across the curve), oil nudging up (brent crude +0.5% to US$87.45/brl), and the USD firmer against...

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...

• US yields. Swings in US yields over the past few days on the back of Treasury news has generated some FX vol. AUD near top of its multi-week range.• AU jobs. Cracks in the AU labour market are widening. Unemployment at 2021 levels. RBA may not need to hike rates again. AUD headwinds building. Global Trends A few more ructions across markets over the past couple of sessions. But rather than being geopolitically driven the gyrations related to developments in the US bond market, and this spilled over into other asset classes like FX. Yesterday the US Treasury announced...