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AUD

22 Apr 2026

Confused Iran headlines keep markets hemmed in

Good morning. Markets are struggling to find direction as conflicting signals on the war in Iran leave traders rudderless. Vice President JD Vance yesterday postponed a trip to Pakistan after Iranian officials reportedly refused to meet with him, citing “unreasonable demands” from the US, while President Trump extended today’s ceasefire deadline to allow Tehran to present a “unified proposal,” even as he directed the Navy to maintain its blockade against Iranian shipping. At least two cargo vessels have been confirmed struck off the Iranian coast, with reports of a third attack in the last hour. Treasury yields are edging higher,...

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21 Apr 2026

Will they or won’t they

• Market wobbles. Fears of a re-escalation in Iran dampened sentiment overnight. President Trump extended the ceasefire this morning.• FX moves. USD firmer due to higher oil & strong US retail sales. NZD holds up because of NZ CPI. AUD lost some ground. More bursts of vol. expected. Global Trends A few more Middle East related gyrations across markets overnight. Risk sentiment was on the backfoot for most of the trading session on fears there might be a re-escalation of the conflict given the ceasefire deadline was approaching, US Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan had been put on hold,...

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19 Apr 2026

Open, Shut Them

• Ongoing uncertainty. Weekend news the Strait of Hormuz has been closed dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer. AUD gives back some ground.• Volatile situation. More twists & turns likely. Impact on global economy still in its infancy. Q1 NZ CPI due (Tues). Global PMIs also out this week (Thurs). Global TrendsMiddle East related events have remained in the driver’s seat with the unfolding situation generating bursts of volatility. Risk sentiment was upbeat at the end of last week due to news the Strait of Hormuz had re-opened to commercial traffic. On Friday the US S&P500 (+1.2%) reached a fresh...

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14 Apr 2026

Hopes & dreams

• Positive vibes. Markets hopeful another round of US/Iran talks yield positive results. Oil lower, equities higher. USD weaker. AUD at multi-week high.• Macro pulse. IMF downgraded global outlook. Australian business & consumer confidence tumbled. Conflict casting a long shadow over world economy. Global Trends Short-term sentiment driven markets have been in ‘glass half full’ mode overnight. Investors looked through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and lasered in on the prospect of another round of talks between the US and Iran, with reports suggesting they could be held over coming days. The current ceasefire is due to expire...

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12 Apr 2026

One step forward, two steps back

• US/Iran conflict. Weekend talks ended without an agreement. Energy prices jumped this morning. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground.• Macro risks. US threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Downside risks to global economy remain. Volatility expected to continue for a while yet. Global Trends Market sentiment was underpinned last week by the US/Iran ceasefire news. There was a solid rebound in global equities (the S&P500 rose ~3.6% last week, its best weekly result since last November), bond yields declined, and oil prices pulled back. However, hope can only go so far. Weekend developments have once again highlighted...

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