AUD

• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to hike rates & RBA predicted to hold. US Fed later this week, the first meeting for new Chair Warsh. Global Trends It has been a relatively upbeat start to the week with markets reacting somewhat positively to the news that a deal has (finally) been struck between the US/Iran. It isn’t a final deal, rather only a Memorandum of Understanding for a 60-day ‘ceasefire’ that will...

• US/Iran. Latest reversal by President Trump boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, oil & bond yields fell. USD weaker. AUD rebounds after a torrid run.• Macro pulse. Energy/supply-chain disruption impacts only just starting to show. ECB raised rates overnight. RBA, BoJ, BoE, & US Fed in focus next week. Global Trends Middle East related headlines have been in the driver’s seat overnight with the (latest) reversal by President Trump generating a turnaround in sentiment. After proclaiming yesterday that the US will attack Iran “very hard” President Trump cancelled strikes and claimed an agreement to end hostilities could be signed...

• Geopolitical jitters. US/Iran tensions dampen sentiment. Equities lower, oil firmer. Cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD weaken. AUD at ~2-month low.• Data pulse. US CPI confirmed an oil-driven acceleration in headline inflation. ECB expected to hike rates tonight. US producer prices also released. Global Trends Risk sentiment has remained on the backfoot with renewed hostilities in the Middle East dampening the market mood. Following President Trump’s proclamation the US would ‘strike Iran hard’ the US launched strikes on multiple targets. The latest moves highlight President Trump’s growing impatience with the stalled ‘peace efforts’/negotiations. Recall, the initial ‘two-week ceasefire’ began...

• Market wobbles. Renewed tensions in the Middle East dampen sentiment. Tech stocks slip back again. AUD still on the backfoot. AUD underperforms.• Macro news. AU consumer confidence falls further below average. Doubts RBA may hike again. US CPI out tonight. Jump in US inflation may generate vol. Global Trends More wobbles and volatility across financial markets overnight. Tension and uncertainty in the Middle East remains. On the one hand, there were reports Kuwait is offering to sell oil to refiners in Asia for the first time since the conflict kicked off and that oil/gas supply via the Strait of...