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Market Wire, North America

Canadian Inflation Falls Further, Bolstering June Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation decelerated again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut in June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in March, and closely aligned with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.5 percent. Shelter costs again provided the biggest lift, with rents climbing 8.2 percent year over year, while mortgage interest costs rose 24.5 percent....

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US Inflation Stabilises and Spending Slows, Supporting Fed Easing

Consumer price growth held steady and “control group” retail sales turned negative in the United States last month, suggesting that the economy is slowly losing momentum, and helping bolster the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.6 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of...

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Loonie Jumps on Jobs Beat

The Canadian economy generated more jobs than anticipated in April, helping reduce market expectations for an imminent pivot toward easier monetary policy from the Bank of Canada. 90,000 new positions were added in the month and the unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent in March. Consensus estimates had pointed to 20,000 new hires, with elevated population growth and still-high participation rates pushing unemployment to 6.2 percent. The services sector generated most of the gains, but gains were widespread, with professional, scientific and technical services, accommodation and food, health care and social assistance, and natural resources industries offsetting modest losses in...

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US Job Gains Slow, Reassuring Markets, While Pointing to Weaker Growth

The US job creation engine decelerated in April, relieving financial markets, but pointing to economic turbulence ahead. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 175,000 jobs were added in the month, undershooting the 240,000 consensus forecast, and missing the 200,000 that is now believed sufficient to offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to the prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 22,000 positions. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent – above the 3.8 percent expected – and wage gains slowed, helping ease inflation fears. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.2 percent...

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Canada’s Economy Slows as US Wage Gains Accelerate

The Canadian economy ran out of momentum toward the end of the first quarter, helping bolster market-implied odds on an imminent pivot to easing by the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product missing forecasts with a 0.2 percent expansion in February, following a downwardly-revised 0.5-percent expansion in January. The services sector led gains for a second month, but goods-producing industries flatlined. Just 12 of 20 economic sectors reported positive growth, down from the prior month’s 18. On a year-over-year basis, activity rose 0.8 percent, with the first quarter tracking toward a...

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