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Market Wire, North America

07 Sep 2023

Bank of Canada Governor says rates may be “sufficiently restrictive”

Governor Tiff Macklem said rates could be “sufficiently restrictive” in a speech this afternoon, implicitly raising the bar for further increases in the Bank of Canada’s incredibly-aggressive post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. In the latest Economic Progress Report, delivered at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Macklem said “Monetary policy is working, and inflation is coming down. But we still have some way to go to restore price stability. With past interest rate increases still working their way through the economy, monetary policy may be sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability. However, Governing Council is concerned about the persistence of underlying inflation....

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06 Sep 2023

Bank of Canada holds, acknowledges easing in “excess demand”

10:45 EDT To sum up and close out today’s Bank of Canada action: – Markets are mostly convinced the Bank’s tightening cycle is done, and are now mainly concerned with adjusting bets on when the first rate cut might occur. Odds on a cut by January are creeping higher, but the consensus is anchored closer to mid-2024. – But policymakers cannot declare “mission accomplished” yet, and will need to maintain a rhetorically hawkish posture until the threat of an unwarranted easing in financial conditions has passed. – Two inflation reports, two jobs prints, a business outlook survey, and a number...

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25 Aug 2023

Powell avoids out-hawking markets, puts Fed on data-dependent footing

Speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this morning, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a slightly less hawkish message than markets had feared, saying that the central bank would “proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data”. In a speech that recycled a lot of the language used in last year’s appearance, Powell said “Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” and noted “Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation...

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21 Aug 2023

Markets mark time into Jackson Hole

Foreign exchange market flows are ebbing this morning, reflecting typical late-August trading dynamics. The dollar is inching lower, delivering gains in most major-economy currencies, equity futures are pushing higher ahead of the open, and ten-year Treasury yields are holding near post-2007 highs. Last week, markets sold off as long-term rate expectations were ratcheted higher. Yields spiked to multi-decade peaks after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed officials remaining intent on keeping policy tight for a prolonged period of time, and as updated retail sales numbers pointed to resilience in consumer demand. More broadly, the global economy is sucking...

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16 Aug 2023

Markets see clouds in the US economy’s silver lining

“In the beginning the Universe was created,” said Douglas Adams in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. “This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move”. Markets seem to be taking a similar view on yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated US retail sales report, with an aversion to risk becoming more pronounced as investors grapple with the prospect of higher long-term rates. The dollar is holding its gains and equity futures are setting up for a weaker open even as two- and ten-year Treasury yields fade from their highs. Risk-sensitive units like the Australian and...

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