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Market Wire, North America

06 Oct 2023

Job creation accelerates, exacerbating market stress

The US labour market smashed forecasts in September – with job growth almost doubling market estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts have farther to go in slowing the economy. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 336,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 4.2 percent year-over-year, broadly in line with expectations. Ahead of the release, economists had forecast a 160,000-job gain (although markets likely expected more) and the unemployment rate was seen holding at 3.8 percent. The dollar...

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20 Sep 2023

Fed maintains near-term hawkish bias, telegraphs slower pivot in 2024

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee left benchmark rates at a 22-year high this afternoon, kept at least one more hike on the table, and signalled it would likely cut three times next year – not the four previously envisioned. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 5.25 and 5.50 percent – the highest since 2001, with no dissents in favour of lifting or cutting the rate. In the statement setting out the decision, policymakers emphasized signs of resilience – pointing...

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19 Sep 2023

Canadian inflation accelerates, shaking bets on policy hold

Canadian inflation accelerated in August, but gasoline prices drove much of the gain and many underlying price indicators continued to soften, helping ratify the Bank of Canada’s cautiously hawkish, data-dependent stance. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 4 percent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from the 3.3 percent increase recorded in July, and slightly above consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the change climbed to 0.4 percent – beating market forecasts that had been set closer to the 0.2 percent mark. Gasoline prices rose 4.6 percent month-over-month, and the energy sub-index...

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14 Sep 2023

Euro falls as ECB delivers dovish hike and US retail sales surge

As expected, the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecasts and hiked benchmark rates for a tenth consecutive time this morning – but also signalled its monetary tightening trajectory had reached a plateau, suggesting that further rate increases were unlikely.  In the statement setting out the decision, the Bank said updated staff projections show inflation averaging 5.6 percent in 2023, 3.2 percent in 2024, and 2.1 in 2025, with both 2023 and 2024 forecasts revised up in response to a rise in energy prices. Growth expectations were pushed sharply slower in response to a tightening in financial conditions and weakening...

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13 Sep 2023

Underlying US price growth accelerates, pushing dollar higher

Last updated: 08:46 EDT Underlying US consumer inflation accelerated more than expected last month, helping ratify market expectations for at least one more move in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.  According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in August from the same period last year, up 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was closely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs jumped 5.6 percent month-over-month as global oil prices surged.  The – arguably more important...

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