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Market Wire, North America

Canadian economy flatlines, driving loonie lower

The Canadian economy shrank unexpectedly in the late summer, helping ratify market expectations for a prolonged pause – and an eventual climbdown in rates from the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product remaining essentially unchanged in August after flatlining in the prior month, missing expectations for a 0.1-percent expansion. The retail sector lost 0.7 percent and accommodation and food services dropped 1.8 percent as higher borrowing costs and weaker wage growth impacted household spending. Manufacturing industries contracted 0.6 percent, and agriculture slipped 3.2 percent on declining prices and slower activity. An...

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US consumer spending stays strong while income growth slows, weakening rate outlook

US consumer spending grew and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in September, but income growth slowed – helping ratify the case for a plateau in benchmark interest rates near prevailing levels. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by central bankers – rising 0.3 percent in September from the prior month, up 3.7 percent year-over-year – aligning perfectly with consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating slightly from...

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US growth doubles in third quarter as inflation subsides, positioning economy for soft landing

The American economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, delivering booming growth even as soaring yields raised borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.  Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the economy expanding 4.9 percent in the July-through-September period, topping market consensus around 4.5 percent, and nearing the estimates provided by the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s nowcasting model.  Personal consumption surged 4 percent, marking the fastest pace since 2021 after rising just 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Residential investment broke a long series of losses in adding 0.15 percent, while non-residential fixed investment fell...

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Bank of Canada holds, acknowledges signs of slowdown

As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, warning that “growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures” Officials noted signs of slowing momentum across the economy, saying “Consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services. Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment,” and pointed to a welcome “approaching balance” in overall supply and demand. According to updated forecasts contained in the Monetary Policy Report, the economy is expected to expand 1.2...

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Divergent North American Data Supports Greenback

US retail spending rose by more than expected last month, keeping the US exceptionalism trade intact and helping support yields across the front end of the curve. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in September after an upwardly-revised 0.8-percent gain in August, up 3.4 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.3 percent headline gain. Gas station sales climbed 0.9 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 1 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations...

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