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Market Wire, North America

US consumer spending stays strong while income growth slows, weakening rate outlook

US consumer spending grew and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in September, but income growth slowed – helping ratify the case for a plateau in benchmark interest rates near prevailing levels. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by central bankers – rising 0.3 percent in September from the prior month, up 3.7 percent year-over-year – aligning perfectly with consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating slightly from...

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US growth doubles in third quarter as inflation subsides, positioning economy for soft landing

The American economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, delivering booming growth even as soaring yields raised borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.  Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the economy expanding 4.9 percent in the July-through-September period, topping market consensus around 4.5 percent, and nearing the estimates provided by the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s nowcasting model.  Personal consumption surged 4 percent, marking the fastest pace since 2021 after rising just 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Residential investment broke a long series of losses in adding 0.15 percent, while non-residential fixed investment fell...

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Bank of Canada holds, acknowledges signs of slowdown

As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, warning that “growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures” Officials noted signs of slowing momentum across the economy, saying “Consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services. Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment,” and pointed to a welcome “approaching balance” in overall supply and demand. According to updated forecasts contained in the Monetary Policy Report, the economy is expected to expand 1.2...

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Divergent North American Data Supports Greenback

US retail spending rose by more than expected last month, keeping the US exceptionalism trade intact and helping support yields across the front end of the curve. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in September after an upwardly-revised 0.8-percent gain in August, up 3.4 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.3 percent headline gain. Gas station sales climbed 0.9 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 1 percent gain. Receipts at food services operations...

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Inflation surprises to upside, weighing on risk sentiment

US consumer inflation accelerated more than expected last month, helping lift market expectations for at least one more move in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly hotter than consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release – which were set at 3.6 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.  A rise in housing costs contributed more than half the...

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