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Market Wire, North America

US Inflation Pressures Ease, Making Rate Cuts More Likely

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed as expected in May, bolstering odds on a rate cut before the November presidential election. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising just 0.1 percent in May from the prior month, matching market forecasts. On a year over year basis, core price growth fell to 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in April, aligning with economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index flatlined relative to the prior month, rising 2.6 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.5 percent month-over-month,...

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Canadian Inflation Tops Expectations, Lowering Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation unexpectedly accelerated last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada jumped – making a back-to-back rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting much less likely. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from the 2.7 percent increase recorded in April, and well above the 2.6-percent consensus expectation. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.6 percent. The print incorporated new consumer price index basket weights, but the statistical agency noted that the headline gain would...

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Fed Signals One Cut in 2024, Down From Three

As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high for a seventh consecutive meeting this afternoon, but slashed the number of cuts expected this year from three to one – disappointing market participants expecting a more dovish outlook. In the statement setting out its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee repeated a sentence warning that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”. A sentence that previously complained of a “lack of further progress”...

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US Inflation Decelerates Sharply, Bolstering Rate Cut Odds

Consumer price growth slowed more than expected in the United States last month, setting the stage for a more dovish set of communications from the Federal Reserve when it releases its latest decision this afternoon. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.4 percent in May from the same period last year, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This undershot consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set at 3.5...

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Jobs Numbers Beat Expectations, Lifting Yields

The US job creation engine sped up in May, further diminishing odds on a rate cut before the November election. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 272,000 jobs were added in the month, solidly overshooting the 175,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 15,000 positions. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, breaking a 28-month stretch below the 4 percent threshold, and wage gains accelerated, exacerbating...

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