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Outlook

10 Dec 2024

The Aussie dollar is caught in a crossfire between domestic fundamentals and external risks

In the face of a firmer US dollar and US-related trade risks, the Australian dollar could linger in the mid-$0.60s over the first half of 2025 before undertaking a gradual rope climb higher later in the year: Market volatility is likely to pick up over coming months as US President-elect Trump enacts his policy agenda—but forward-looking currency markets have already partially priced in this risk, with the exchange rate trading at a discount to our various ‘fair value’ estimates. Authorities in China are likely to offset US tariff-induced export pain through a series of increases in internally focused infrastructure investment....

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10 Dec 2024

The yen could regain ground over the year ahead

The Japanese yen—which is tracking below where various fundamental drivers are implying it should be—could claw back ground over the year ahead, even against a relatively-firm US dollar. From our perspective, the currency should benefit from a confluence of factors. Increased geopolitical, macro, and market volatility: A sustained increase in turbulence should enhance the yen’s counter-cyclical properties, giving it room to appreciate. The yen typically benefits during periods of market turbulence.Cross asset volatility, z-score, lookback to 2005January 2016 – November 2024 Further policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan: The tightness in labour markets is feeding through to wages, and...

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10 Dec 2024

After leading the global central bank charge, the Reserve Bank is now aggressively reversing course

The impact of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s previous aggressive policy tightening—which was aimed at bringing down rampant inflation—is still working its way through the system. This is a key factor behind the country’s current economic difficulties. New Zealand has effectively been in recession for two years, with the step down in activity clearly manifesting in interest rate-sensitive sectors, the labour market, and inflation. Leading investment and spending gauges are pointing to below-potential growth persisting well into 2025, with unemployment set to trend higher, and price pressures receding due to greater ‘excess capacity’. Economic weakness points to a further...

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10 Dec 2024

Global, regional, and domestic factors may exert pressure on the Singapore dollar

After outperforming the greenback and touching levels last hit more than a decade ago, the Singaporean dollar is now reversing course, and we expect this weakness to extend over upcoming quarters. Under our baseline scenario, the US dollar could appreciate a little further as incoming president Trump’s policy platform is put in place, the American economy continues to outpace its peers, and interest rate expectations remain tilted toward US assets. At the same time, Singapore’s small, open economy might suffer the consequences of a slowdown in world trade and production trends. Singapore’s small, open economy is exposed to global trade flowsSingapore...

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10 Dec 2024

The global balance of power is shifting

As 2024 draws to a close, the world economy is enjoying a moment of relative stability. Post-pandemic inflationary pressures have eased. Central banks, after aggressively tightening, are cautiously lowering interest rates, reducing the spectre of a policy-induced recession. Cross-asset volatility is subsiding, and key measures of financial stress remain reassuringly low. But this sense of calm conceals areas of vulnerability. Government deficits have widened alarmingly and sovereign bond markets are reflecting growing unease over borrowing levels. New technologies are redrawing the investment landscape, creating a new set of winners and losers. Financial asset valuations, particularly in the United States, remain...

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