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Market Brief, North America

07 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currencies turn more buoyant in the calm after the storm

Financial markets are adding risk after last week’s unusually-eventful week for macroeconomic developments. Equity futures are climbing, bond yields are holding steady, and the dollar is losing altitude as expectations for Federal Reserve policy begin to stabilize in response to Chair Jerome Powell’s “slower-but-higher” message at Wednesday’s meeting, and after Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment data. After Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect a pause in the months to come, investors expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another half-percentage-point hike in December, with the upper end of the Fed Funds target range climbing to 5.25 percent by mid-2023. The offshore Chinese...

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02 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Fed Decision

Good morning and happy Federal Reserve day to all who celebrate. With asset prices resembling Schrödinger’s cat – simultaneously poised for a rally or a crash – bond yields are steady and exchange rates are tightly rangebound ahead of this afternoon’s highly-anticipated announcement. The central bank is widely expected to raise rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, while signalling a coming deceleration in tightening. The big question for markets is how Jerome Powell will manage the accompanying communications conundrum, somehow telling investors to expect a slower pace of rate hikes without triggering a drastic loosening in financial conditions....

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01 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Make Valiant Attempt at Rallying Into Fed Decision

Global equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies are rallying this morning as rumours of an easing in China’s “covid-zero” policy spread across social media – but gains look vulnerable as official sources strenuously deny any changes are afoot. The DXY dollar index is down almost 0.6 percent and the yen – strongly correlated with the S&P 500 – is up sharply as North American traders hit their desks, suggesting that markets are setting up for a Santa Claus rally even as the outcome of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision remains uncertain. The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped well below the 4 percent...

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31 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Traders Turn Cautious Ahead of Action-Packed Week

The greenback is climbing and the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is slipping ahead of a week that could prove pivotal in currency markets. Central banks in Australia, the US and the UK will deliver rate decisions and a slew of data releases including non-farm payrolls will be published in the coming days, helping to set market positioning into year end. Traders are buying the Brazilian real after former president Lula da Silva triumphed over Jair Bolsonaro in a closely-fought election. The currency had traded with a persistent risk discount in recent months as Mr. Bolsonaro cast aspersions on the electoral process,...

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28 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Depressed Earnings Weigh on Global Market Sentiment, Boosting Dollar

US equity futures are falling and the dollar is climbing after weak earnings releases from the likes of Amazon and Apple provided more evidence of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. The ten-year Treasury yield is flirting with the 4-percent threshold once again, commodities are weaker, and oil price gains are stalling out. Canada’s dollar is struggling to push through the 1.35 mark. The euro is trading back below parity against the dollar after the European Central Bank delivered a widely-expected 75 basis point hike but removed statement language that had previously suggested rates would ratchet higher at the...

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