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Market Brief, North America

21 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Risk appetite worsens as holiday-thinned trading week begins

A sense of caution has settled over currency markets this morning as hopes for a recovery in the Chinese economy fade – and as participants brace for a liquidity-thinned week in which accidents can have bigger-than-normal consequences. The dollar is up against most of its risk-sensitive rivals after the number of coronavirus cases in China continued to climb, forcing several cities back into lockdown, and demolishing the idea that consumer demand would suddenly spring back to life. This comes even as markets have become increasingly convinced that US inflation is rolling over against a still-robust economic backdrop – bringing the...

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18 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Risk appetite improves as Fed jawboning efforts help stabilize rate expectations

The dollar is slipping and risk sensitive exchange rates are recovering this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed officials. Mr. Bullard, notoriously hawkish, but not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee next year, said rates might have to climb above 5.25 percent as previous increases have “had only limited effects on observed inflation”. Neel Kashkari – once one of the most dovish Fed policymakers – walked a similar path later in the day, saying “we cannot be overly persuaded by one month’s data”, helping to push back against the wholesale loosening in...

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17 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Strong US retail sales prompt Fed second-guessing, lifting the dollar

Equity futures are pointing to a weaker session, yields are holding ground, and the dollar is edging upward as the impact of yesterday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report continues to reverberate across the economic landscape. American consumers showed no sign of slowing spending in October, with receipts rising for basic inputs like gas and food, along with higher-value items like furniture and new cars – a dynamic that suggests household balance sheets continue to support increased consumption levels. If this is sustained, the implications for Federal Reserve policy are clear: rates will have to climb higher than currently assumed. Chancellor Jeremy...

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16 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currency market rebalancing continues as inflation fears ebb

Equity bourses are setting up for another day of gains and the dollar is continuing its retreat after data out yesterday morning showed US producer price increases slowing in October for a second month, adding to evidence of an easing in inflation pressures. Yields are essentially unchanged and risk appetite remains robust across the foreign exchange markets, with commodity-linked and high-beta currencies eking out small gains as the big European units recover from months of selling. The euro has regained its poise after selling off when a rocket hit a village in Poland, raising the risk of an escalation in...

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15 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Kumbaya-that-dare-not-speak-its-name lifts financial markets

Signs of a thaw in US-China relations and more evidence of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s messaging on rates are giving currency markets an opportunity to trade against the US dollar this morning. Equity futures are setting up for a strong open, yields are down, and commodities are gaining across the board. The greenback is down against most of its major counterparts after US president Joe Biden and Chinese general secretary Xi Jinping agreed to resume cooperation on a number of fronts, helping to reduce pressure on the yuan and weaken safe haven demand for the dollar. After...

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