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Market Brief, North America

14 Feb 2023

Well-Prepared Markets Absorb Signs of Accelerating Inflation

US consumer prices rose by slightly more than forecast in January, but markets are reacting well – suggesting that expectations had climbed and risk had been sufficiently trimmed ahead of the release. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.4% in January from the same period last year, up 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release projected a 6.2% annual gain and a 0.5% jump relative to December. A seasonally-adjusted 2.4 percent month-over-month gain in gasoline prices partially offset a...

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14 Feb 2023

Roses are Red, Violets are Blue, We’re Watching Inflation, and You Should Too

Happy inflation day to all of you hopeless romantics out there. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its consumer price index for January at 8:30 am. Economists think price growth will cool for a seventh consecutive month, with the headline measure increasing 6.2% year-over-year, down from 6.5% in December, and well below the 9.1% pace hit in June. The core measure is seen rising 5.4%, maintaining the prior month’s momentum. Markets seem comfortable with these expectations. Signs of nervousness disappeared over yesterday’s session, leaving equity futures up, Treasury yields down, and the dollar on the defensive. But...

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13 Feb 2023

Traders Brace for Inflation Data

Global financial markets are growing increasingly nervous ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. The dollar is up, yields are inching higher, and equities are down. Implied volatility levels are slightly elevated, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are on the defensive.  Today’s data calendar is light, with the Federal Reserve’s Michelle Bowman discussing topics unrelated to monetary policy, and Japan reporting fourth quarter gross domestic product.  January’s consumer price index update could prove destabilizing for markets that have spent much of the last four months betting on a rapid easing in inflation pressures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is...

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10 Feb 2023

Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

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09 Feb 2023

Markets Advance as News Flow Ebbs

With the number of US data releases slowing to a trickle and next week’s all-important inflation print looming ahead, risk assets are inching higher, leaving currency markets largely rangebound. Equity futures are advancing while yields come under pressure – translating into a slightly weaker dollar.  Implied volatility levels are coming back down, suggesting that a post-jobs report bounce in yields has helped reset market positioning to more neutral levels – reducing the perceived risk of a big washout around the January consumer price index release. Implied terminal rate expectations are holding between 5.1% and 5.2%, up from the 4.9% area...

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