Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

Market Brief, North America

Traders Brace for Inflation Data

Global financial markets are growing increasingly nervous ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. The dollar is up, yields are inching higher, and equities are down. Implied volatility levels are slightly elevated, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are on the defensive.  Today’s data calendar is light, with the Federal Reserve’s Michelle Bowman discussing topics unrelated to monetary policy, and Japan reporting fourth quarter gross domestic product.  January’s consumer price index update could prove destabilizing for markets that have spent much of the last four months betting on a rapid easing in inflation pressures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is...

Read More Read More

Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

Read More Read More

Markets Advance as News Flow Ebbs

With the number of US data releases slowing to a trickle and next week’s all-important inflation print looming ahead, risk assets are inching higher, leaving currency markets largely rangebound. Equity futures are advancing while yields come under pressure – translating into a slightly weaker dollar.  Implied volatility levels are coming back down, suggesting that a post-jobs report bounce in yields has helped reset market positioning to more neutral levels – reducing the perceived risk of a big washout around the January consumer price index release. Implied terminal rate expectations are holding between 5.1% and 5.2%, up from the 4.9% area...

Read More Read More

Sentiment Improves as Fed Rhetoric Remains Balanced

The dollar is softer and Treasury yields are subsiding after the chair of the Federal Reserve avoided walking back last week’s observation that signs of “disinflation” were beginning to appear – something that many saw as a communications error at the time.  Jerome Powell essentially repeated last week’s message in a question and answer session at the Economic Club in Washington yesterday. Speaking with David Rubenstein, Powell noted that Friday’s jobs data was “certainly strong – stronger than anyone I know expected,” warning that the process involved in getting inflation down to target would be “bumpy”. “The reality is we’re...

Read More Read More

Post-Jobs Report Momentum Fades, Dollar Corrects Lower

Call it the “calm after the storm”: Equity futures are set to open at more supportive levels, yields are slipping after a post-Friday surge, and the dollar is in retreat against most of its major rivals. Reaction to Friday’s blowout jobs report is starting to fade, but the Fed’s jawboning efforts began in earnest yesterday when Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg that he could see central bankers delivering another three quarter-point hikes in the months ahead if the economy remained strong. Chair Jerome Powell could follow this up by calling 2023 rate cuts unlikely when he speaks at the Economic...

Read More Read More