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Market Brief, North America

14 Sep 2023

Currency volatility falls after US inflation fails to surprise

A flurry of action after yesterday’s release of the August consumer price report ultimately left currency and fixed-income markets largely unmoved. The dollar is flat and front-end yields are edging up. Measures of implied volatility in the equity and currency markets are plumbing seasonal lows. Both the headline and core price indices accelerated somewhat as Saudi-led output cuts lifted oil prices and transportation services costs, but underlying inflation stayed at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, keeping policy expectations essentially unchanged. The central bank is still seen staying on hold next week, tightening again in November, and beginning...

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13 Sep 2023

Price action slows to a crawl ahead of inflation print

The trade-weighted dollar is moving sideways, equity futures are slightly weaker, and long-term yields are creeping higher ahead of data that is expected to show core consumer price growth continuing to fade in the face of the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. According to consensus expectations, month-over-month headline inflation accelerated to 0.6 percent in August as energy prices climbed, driving the all-items index to a 3.6-percent gain over last year. But core – widely considered a more reliable gauge of underlying inflation – is seen rising just 0.2 percent for a third month running, bringing the year-over-year increase down to 4.3...

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12 Sep 2023

Markets flat-line into US inflation report

Currency traders are so bored, they’re working just to pass the time this morning. Foreign exchange market ranges remain remarkably tight ahead of tomorrow’s US consumer inflation report, equity futures are pointing toward an incrementally-softer open, and Treasury yields are inching lower into what could be a news-light trading day. The pound is holding below the psychologically-important 1.25 threshold against the dollar after British wage growth stayed hot in the three months through July – making a compelling case for more Bank of England tightening – even as the broader labour market showed signs of easing, suggesting that a growth...

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11 Sep 2023

Dollar stalls on Asian currency rebound

Central bank jawboning helped the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen stop the dollar’s advance this weekend, with the trade-weighted exchange rate roughly -0.3 percent below Friday’s close. North American equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, Treasury yields are inching higher, oil prices are slipping, and most other major currencies are firmly rangebound against the dollar. The renminbi jumped more than 1 percent in Asian trading hours after the People’s Bank of China warned that it could intervene directly in markets to squeeze short-sellers and stabilize exchange rates. “We will not hesitate on taking actions when necessary to...

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08 Sep 2023

Yuan plummets, dollar pushes toward eighth weekly gain

Faith in a US soft landing – bolstered by yesterday’s surprise drop in initial jobless claims – seems to be on shakier ground this morning. Equity futures are broadly lower, Treasury yields are slipping, and the dollar is down almost imperceptibly – although it remains on course toward closing out an eighth week of gains against its major counterparts. The Canadian dollar is essentially unchanged after Governor Tiff Macklem hinted that the Bank of Canada’s monetary tightening cycle was drawing to a close. “With past interest rate increases still working their way through the economy,” he said “monetary policy may...

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