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Market Brief, North America

The Morning After the Night Before

After a brutal week, markets are in hangover mode, laying on the sofa, drinking as much liquidity as they can, and remaining ready to puke at any time. Risk appetites are reviving and major equity indices are poised to extend gains after Credit Suisse said it would stabilize its balance sheet with 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank, and a group of big US banks agreed to inject $30 billion into First Republic Bank. Treasury yields are seeing bifurcated moves, with the two year rising as the ten-year falls, and the dollar is weakening. Oil and other commodities...

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Markets Rebound on Easing Contagion Fears

Measures of implied volatility are beginning to subside after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a week-long spasm in financial markets and led to a wholesale repricing in global interest rates. European bank shares are rallying, North American equity indices are setting up for a stable open, Treasury yields are up, and the dollar is down. Oil is climbing off the 15-month lows reached during yesterday’s session Credit Suisse shares gained more than 20 percent at the open this morningafter it offered to repurchase debt with up to 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank. The move is expected to...

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Currency Volatility Snaps Higher on Suisse Miss

World markets are coming under renewed selling pressure this morningas signs of a banking contagion spread to Europe. Equity futures are setting up for drastic losses at the open, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is pushing higher against its G10 rivals. Oil prices are tumbling, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark slipping below $70 for the first time since September 2021.  A fragile sense of calm was broken when shares in Credit Suisse Group AG plunged and credit default swap prices shot up after it said “material weaknesses” had been found in its reporting. Selling worsened when the head...

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Hope Springs

Markets are staging a cautious recovery after a three-day bout of selling drove equity indices into the red and triggered some of the biggest daily interest rate declines on record. US regional bank stocks appear destined for a more constructive open, with yesterday’s indiscriminate selling giving way to a more nuanced pickup in well-capitalized names. Treasury yields are climbing off the floor, and the dollar is rising against most its major counterparts. But damage has been done. Rate expectations have been reset lower across the global economy, financial conditions have tightened sharply, and the episode has likely inflicted a psychological...

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Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

Much like last night’s Oscar winner, the financial markets appear to be exploring every possibility in the multiverse this morning. Major equity indices are oscillating between gains and losses, global bond yields are plummeting, and currency markets are exhibiting flight-to-safety dynamics after authorities stepped in to unwind Silicon Valley Bank and backstop deposits across a US banking sector that is experiencing losses on its long-dated bond holdings. In a joint statement released before Asian trading began, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said that depositors in the collapsed institution would have access to their funds from today, with...

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