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Market Brief, North America

Markets Advance as News Flow Ebbs

With the number of US data releases slowing to a trickle and next week’s all-important inflation print looming ahead, risk assets are inching higher, leaving currency markets largely rangebound. Equity futures are advancing while yields come under pressure – translating into a slightly weaker dollar.  Implied volatility levels are coming back down, suggesting that a post-jobs report bounce in yields has helped reset market positioning to more neutral levels – reducing the perceived risk of a big washout around the January consumer price index release. Implied terminal rate expectations are holding between 5.1% and 5.2%, up from the 4.9% area...

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Sentiment Improves as Fed Rhetoric Remains Balanced

The dollar is softer and Treasury yields are subsiding after the chair of the Federal Reserve avoided walking back last week’s observation that signs of “disinflation” were beginning to appear – something that many saw as a communications error at the time.  Jerome Powell essentially repeated last week’s message in a question and answer session at the Economic Club in Washington yesterday. Speaking with David Rubenstein, Powell noted that Friday’s jobs data was “certainly strong – stronger than anyone I know expected,” warning that the process involved in getting inflation down to target would be “bumpy”. “The reality is we’re...

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Post-Jobs Report Momentum Fades, Dollar Corrects Lower

Call it the “calm after the storm”: Equity futures are set to open at more supportive levels, yields are slipping after a post-Friday surge, and the dollar is in retreat against most of its major rivals. Reaction to Friday’s blowout jobs report is starting to fade, but the Fed’s jawboning efforts began in earnest yesterday when Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg that he could see central bankers delivering another three quarter-point hikes in the months ahead if the economy remained strong. Chair Jerome Powell could follow this up by calling 2023 rate cuts unlikely when he speaks at the Economic...

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Trend Reversal Rumbles Across Currency Markets

The dollar is continuing its ascent and global markets are in risk-off mode as traders unwind bets on easier monetary policy in the aftermath of Friday’s juggernaut jobs report. Futures are down sharply, Treasury yields are up, the greenback is trading near a three week high, and currencies elsewhere are on the defensive after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 517,000 jobs to payrolls in January, while revising previous months up. Friday’s data looks too good to be true, with seasonal adjustment issues likely playing a role – but it nonetheless showed that underlying momentum in the...

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Volatility Falls Ahead of Central Bank-Packed Trading Week

Trading activity in global financial markets remains muted ahead of the last US inflation print to land before next week’s central bank meetings. With equity futures inching down and Treasury yields holding flat, the dollar is effectively unchanged against its significant counterparts, with the inflation-propelled Australian dollar looking like the only major to eke out serious gains over the week. The US economy grew substantially faster than forecast in the final quarter of 2022, but odds on a smaller rate increase at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting remained unchanged, and markets continued to brace for a recession later this year....

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