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Market Brief, North America

24 Mar 2023

TGIF?

As 2023 unfolds, “Thank God It’s Friday” is rapidly becoming “Oh No, It’s Friday”. Risk appetites are shrinking across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for a weekend that could follow its predecessors in bringing more scary news. The dollar is pushing higher against all of its major non-Japanese counterparts, two-year Treasury yields appear headed back toward the lows reached earlier in the week, and futures suggest equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. North American crude futures are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel, below levels at which the Biden administration had committed to refilling...

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21 Mar 2023

Markets Move Higher as Anxiety Subsides

A relief rally continues to unfold in global financial markets this morning, with equity indices and bond yields marching higher as tensions in the US and European banking sectors show signs of easing. The dollar is turning in a mixed performance as safe haven currencies retreat. In prepared comments released ahead of a speech this morning, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the protections extended to uninsured depositors at Silicon Valley Bank could see use elsewhere. “Our intervention was necessary to protect the broader US banking system,” she said, “And similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the...

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20 Mar 2023

Official Policy Actions Ease Market Tensions

Risk aversion appears to be ebbing in financial markets after Swiss regulators forced UBS and Credit Suisse together, and major central banks agreed to increase swap line availability. The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are down, and North American equity futures are stabilizing. We remain convinced that the US and European banking sectors are well capitalized and flush with liquidity, meaning that official policy actions should prove successful in preventing a broad-based meltdown in global financial markets.  But signs of potential contagion remain obvious: implied volatility levels are elevated, regional bank indices are sitting on losses, and commodities are lower....

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17 Mar 2023

The Morning After the Night Before

After a brutal week, markets are in hangover mode, laying on the sofa, drinking as much liquidity as they can, and remaining ready to puke at any time. Risk appetites are reviving and major equity indices are poised to extend gains after Credit Suisse said it would stabilize its balance sheet with 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank, and a group of big US banks agreed to inject $30 billion into First Republic Bank. Treasury yields are seeing bifurcated moves, with the two year rising as the ten-year falls, and the dollar is weakening. Oil and other commodities...

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16 Mar 2023

Markets Rebound on Easing Contagion Fears

Measures of implied volatility are beginning to subside after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a week-long spasm in financial markets and led to a wholesale repricing in global interest rates. European bank shares are rallying, North American equity indices are setting up for a stable open, Treasury yields are up, and the dollar is down. Oil is climbing off the 15-month lows reached during yesterday’s session Credit Suisse shares gained more than 20 percent at the open this morningafter it offered to repurchase debt with up to 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank. The move is expected to...

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