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Market Brief, North America

Dollar Gains Ease As Newsflow Slows

The dollar looks set to break its four-day winning streak, reversing some of its gains as traders and investors tiptoe back into risk-sensitive assets within a quieter economic data environment. North American equity futures are building up to a mildly-positive open, Treasury yields are slipping, and most currency majors are posting incremental gains. Oil prices are pushing higher after the US hit another 14 Houthi launch sites in Yemen, and Pakistan launched an aerial assault against targets in Iran. The attack comes after an Iranian missile strike on Pakistan-based militants on Tuesday, and threatens to escalate into a wider conflict...

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Monetary Easing Hopes Fade

The dollar is holding near a one-month high and risk appetites are deteriorating as investors ratchet monetary easing expectations down in the face of a concerted jawboning campaign from central bankers. Odds on a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are down to less than 60 percent after Governor Christopher Waller warned policymakers would be “methodical and careful” in lowering borrowing costs. In a speech given yesterday morning, Waller disappointed investors expecting a repeat of previous rate-cutting cycles by saying “With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I...

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Dollar Advances As Yields Climb

With ten-year Treasury yields poking above the 4 percent threshold once again, the dollar is the only outperformer on the currency league tables this morning. The greenback is trading near a one-month high, posting gains against all of its major counterparts as risk appetite turns more subdued ahead of a speech from formerly-hawkish Federal Reserve Governor Waller at 11:00. The British pound is roughly -0.7 percent weaker after wage growth slowed sharply, supporting bets on an early pivot to easing from the Bank of England. Regular pay growth excluding bonuses cooled to 6.6 percent year over year in the three...

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Markets Reset to Pre-Inflation Release Levels 

Yesterday’s inflation data failed to make a persuasive case for imminent rate cuts. Growth in both the headline and core consumer price measures declined more slowly than economists had hoped, and services ex-shelter inflation remained sticky, suggesting that the disinflation process could prove unexpectedly turbulent. But markets are back to betting on rapid monetary easing. After a brief post-release bump, ten-year yields are back below the 4 percent threshold, Fed fund futures are discounting five or more cuts by the end of 2024, and odds on a 25-basis point move at the central bank’s March meeting are holding near 70...

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Market Calm Remains Intact 

Treasury yields and the broad dollar are coming under selling pressure ahead of this morning’s inflation report, but position-taking looks relatively subdued. The report, due in less than half an hour, is expected to show the core consumer price index rising by 3.8 percent in the year to December, slowing from 4 percent in November and helping set the stage for rules-driven rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. As we had suspected, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams attempted to rebuff these easing expectations in a speech yesterday, but markets paid him little...

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