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Market Brief, North America

01 Jun 2023

Currency Markets Consolidate Ahead of Critical Non-Farm Payrolls Report

An easing in tail risks is helping lift global markets this morning after the US House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling. The measure passed by a 314-117 margin late last night, with Democrats joining with centrist Republicans to push the bill forward for approval in the Senate. Although disappointing earnings estimates are weighing on several of the biggest tech names, equity futures are broadly higher, Treasuries are reversing yesterday’s rally, and the dollar is edging upward against most of its major counterparts. The number of US employment vacancies jumped unexpectedly last month, further firming odds...

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31 May 2023

Dollar Strengthens into Month End

As the last trading day of the month begins, it’s clear that equity investors aren’t following the “sell in May and go away” dictum, but others are growing more cautious on an increasingly-bifurcated worldwide growth outlook. US Treasury yields – standing in for US growth expectations – continue to climb, while oil prices – a proxy for global demand – are broadly lower, with both key benchmarks down almost 3-percent overnight and off nearly 10 percent for the month. The trade-weighted dollar looks set to end the month having gained nearly 2.75 percent, with higher US yields and increasing scepticism on...

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30 May 2023

Bulls Return Ahead of Vote on Debt Deal

A slow-motion relief rally continues to unfold across the financial markets as President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy make progress toward garnering the bipartisan support needed to pass this weekend’s debt limit deal. Equity futures are setting up for a strong open, Treasury yields are lower across the front and belly of the curve, and risk-sensitive currencies are climbing against the dollar. Many investors remain wary: some of the proposed bill’s embedded provisions are expected to take a toll on growth, and the Treasury’s renewed funding efforts are seen subtracting from overall market liquidity. We suspect these fears are...

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27 May 2023

US debt ceiling deal sets stage for modest relief rally

President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle to avert a US debt default that could have devastated the global economy and financial system.  Several major media organizations have reported the tentative deal will suspend the debt ceiling for two years, with domestic spending frozen near current levels even as outlays on defence and veteran affairs are increased. Firm details are not yet available, but informed opinions suggest work requirements under family assistance and food stamp programmes will be tightened, energy sector approval processes will be streamlined, and some newly-approved Internal Revenue Service...

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26 May 2023

Hot inflation and spending numbers put a summer rate hike firmly on the Fed’s table

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated last month, helping lift the likelihood of another rate hike at one of the central bank’s next two meetings, while helping put a floor under Treasury yields and the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core consumer expenditures price index rose a faster-than-anticipated 0.4 percent in April from the month prior, up 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, beating market expectations for a 0.3-percent gain. Consumer spending climbed 0.5-percent and personal income inched 0.4 percent higher month-over-month, with pandemic-era savings and higher asset values continuing to fuel extraordinarily-strong levels of consumption...

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