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Market Brief, North America

Veni, Vidi, Retreat-y

This weekend’s baffling march on Moscow by the Wagner Group of mercenaries ended without any appreciable impact on global energy prices or broader financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged, equity futures look incrementally softer, and the VIX “fear index” is holding near Friday’s post-pandemic lows. The yen is modestly stronger after Japanese officials stepped up currency jawboning efforts last night, with Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, warning that exchange rate moves had become “one-sided” and that he wouldn’t “rule out any options” in dealing with it – language that has...

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Risk appetite falls on accumulating evidence of global economic slowdown

The dollar is staging a broad-based recovery this morning after a raft of purchasing manager surveys showed activity slowing sharply across a range of global economies. Data published by S&P this morning provided evidence of decelerating growth in Australia, Japan, the UK and the euro area, with the all-important services sector joining manufacturing in showing signs of strain in every major country. In the euro area, the headline purchasing manager index dropped to 50.3 in June from 52.5 in the prior month, narrowly avoiding contraction and hitting a five-month low as the strike-plagued French economy deteriorated and the German factory sector remained depressed. European yields fell...

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Markets weaken as Bank of England delivers another hawkish surprise

The British pound is consolidating gains after the Bank of England joined its Commonwealth counterparts in wrongfooting markets with a bigger-than-expected half-point hike at this morning’s meeting. Responding to “material news” of an acceleration in wages and consumer prices, the Monetary Policy Committee voted seven to two in favour of raising rates to the highest levels since 2008, with Governor Bailey saying “Bringing inflation down is our absolute priority”. From today’s 5 percent, traders now expect the Bank Rate to peak above 6 percent in early 2024. This should, in theory, generate a lot of carry support for the pound – speculators...

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Markets retreat ahead of Powell testimony

In a return to the “good news is bad news” dynamic that drove price action through the post-global financial crisis years, markets are back in risk-off mode this morning. Data out yesterday showed US housing starts jumped in May by the most since 2016, providing more evidence of underlying resilience in the world’s largest economy – while also making additional rate hikes more likely. The dollar is higher, yields are flat, and commodity-linked currencies are down across the board. Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a hawkish message when he appears in front of the House Financial Services Committee this morning. Last week’s “dot...

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Risk assets pause for breath as Fed pushback becomes more likely

Markets are turning more cautious after last week’s “melt-up” in risk assets, with the dollar climbing against its rivals, Treasury yields ticking higher, and equity markets beating a slow retreat. The British pound is holding near to a ten-month high against the euro and a 14-month peak against the dollar, supported by rising rate expectations. Following strong labour market and wage growth data, the latest inflation print, out tomorrow morning, is expected to show headline price growth easing only slightly in the the month of May, and the core measure is seen holding close to 6.8 percent in year-over-year terms. In response,...

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