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Market Brief, North America

05 Jul 2023

Markets retreat as fireworks fade

Financial markets are suffering a modest post-July 4 hangover, with the big risk haven currencies – the dollar, euro, and yen – outperforming their commodity-linked brethren ahead of the North American open.  Risk appetite is broadly weaker after China’s Caixin services sector purchasing manager index fell by more than expected in May, providing more evidence of a softening in consumer sentiment in the world’s second-largest national economy. The index dropped to 53.9 from 57.1 in April, missing forecasts that were set above the 56 threshold, and aligning with similar results from the official services and manufacturing surveys last week. The yuan...

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30 Jun 2023

Slowing consumer demand weighs on US yields, forces dollar into incremental retreat

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure slowed and consumer spending flatlined in May, suggesting that the central bank’s monetary tightening efforts are beginning to take a toll on the economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in May from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates for a 4.7-percent print. The so-called “supercore” measure – services inflation excluding housing and energy services – favoured by Jerome Powell rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, rising at the...

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29 Jun 2023

Stabilizing policy expectations drive volatility lower

Markets are preternaturally calm, with most major pairs trapped in sub-20-pip ranges this morning after policymakers stuck to their “higher for longer” scripts during yesterday’s panel at the European Central Bank’s summit in Sintra, Portugal.  The Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey delivered a relatively hawkish message, hammering it home by saying “I’ve always been interested that the market thinks the peak will be short-lived in a world where we’re dealing with more persistent inflation”. Christine Lagarde seemed to suggest that her shop could follow a widely-expected July hike with another in September. And Jerome Powell said a “strong majority” of...

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28 Jun 2023

Signs of US resilience lift dollar

The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are pushing higher after yesterday’s raft of second-tier data releases pointed to continued outperformance in the US economy relative to its rivals.  Durable goods orders topped expectations in May, posting a 1.7 percent gain against a forecast -0.9 percent decline. New home sales jumped 12.2 percent, well above the predicted 1.2-percent gain. And consumer confidence surged, smashing market forecasts and suggesting that cooling inflation is intersecting with strong labour markets to bolster optimism about the economy’s direction. The Conference Board’s index jumped to 109.7, beating consensus estimates that were set closer to 102. An...

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27 Jun 2023

Canadian dollar falls as inflation slows

Canadian inflation decelerated in May, and most underlying price indicators continued to soften, helping push the Bank of Canada back onto a data-dependent footing. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, down sharply from the 4,4 percent increase recorded in April, and perfectly in line with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the change climbed to 0.4 percent – again aligning with market forecasts. Base-year effects saw gasoline prices fall -18.3 percent year-over-year, and the energy sub-index also dropped 12.4 percent. Food prices slowed their climb, up 9...

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