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Market Brief, North America

27 Nov 2023

Blue Monday follows Black Friday

Markets are kicking off the week on a more cautious footing after Chinese data disappointed relative to expectations, pointing to a stronger disinflationary impulse from the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial profits increased just 2.7 percent from a year ago in October, according to numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics, down from September’s 11.9 percent and August’s 17.2 percent as global demand weakens and a domestic recovery runs out of momentum. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the highest levels in a week, equity futures are retreating, and the dollar is stabilizing as demand for commodity-linked units and emerging-market...

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24 Nov 2023

Tryptophan-addled markets move sideways

Currency market liquidity is thinner than a Wegovy patient at a Thanksgiving dinner, with choppy price action leaving most major pairs effectively unchanged relative to Wednesday levels. Equity futures are pointing to a subdued holiday session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.46 percent, and trade-weighted measures of the dollar are staying stable as traders keep positions square into the weekend. The Japanese yen is holding just north of 149 against the dollar after updated inflation numbers came in slightly below expectations, further diminishing odds on an imminent shift away from the central bank’s easy-money policies. Consumer prices excluding fresh...

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22 Nov 2023

Ranges hold in foreign exchange markets as holiday looms

Currency markets are caught in choppy trading conditions as selling pressure on the US dollar abates ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. Equity futures are steady, Treasury yields are up modestly on the short end, and oil prices are moving sideways as overall liquidity levels fall. The pound is holding near a two-month high on hawkish verbal support from Bank of England policymakers, and the euro is clinging to the 1.09 threshold against the greenback as traders await new catalysts – perhaps tomorrow’s purchasing manager indices – for a move higher. Although momentum is slowing, both the Chinese yuan and Japanese...

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21 Nov 2023

Dollar fades ahead of Fed minutes

The dollar keeps slipping, slipping, slipping into the future. With this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes expected to confirm an increasingly-dovish consensus among policymakers, the greenback is trading near its August lows, down almost 3 percent on a trade-weighted basis this month. The record of deliberations leading up to the central bank’s early-November decision is likely to show officials seeing growth and inflation risks as more “balanced,” with “many” or “most” participants seeing rates as “near, or already at a sufficiently restrictive” level – language that should bring market-implied odds on a final rate hike down to near zero. The...

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20 Nov 2023

Volatility falls into holiday-shortened week

Goldilocks is eating everybody’s porridge this morning, ignoring her mama’s warnings about ruining her appetite for Thanksgiving. With markets increasingly convinced the US economy is headed into a period of not-too-warm, not-too-cold growth, the dollar is trading at its lowest levels in more than two months, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the open. Implied volatility measures continue to trend lower across asset classes. Currency markets are exhibiting typical “dollar smile” dynamics as a narrowing in expected growth rates and a drop in US rate projections helps spark a recovery in outbound capital...

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